Species across a wide range of taxa and habitats are shifting phenological events in response to climate change. While advances are common, shifts vary in magnitude and direction within and among species, and the basis for this variation is relatively unknown. We examine previously suggested patterns of variation in phenological shifts in order to understand the cue–response mechanisms that underlie phenological change. Here, we review what is known about the mechanistic basis for nine factors proposed to predict phenological change (latitude, elevation, habitat type, trophic level, migratory strategy, ecological specialization, species’ seasonality, thermoregulatory mode, and generation time). We find that many studies either do not identify a specific underlying mechanism or do not evaluate alternative mechanistic hypotheses, limiting the ability of scientists to predict future responses to global change with accuracy. We present a conceptual framework that emphasizes a critical distinction between environmental (cue‐driven) and organismal (response‐driven) mechanisms causing variation in phenological shifts and discuss how this distinction can reduce confusion in the field and improve predictions of future phenological change.

One contribution of 14 to a theme issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. As global climate change progresses, the occurrence of potentially disruptive climatic events such as storms are increasing in frequency, duration and intensity resulting in higher mortality and reduced reproductive success. What constitutes an extreme climatic event? First we point out that extreme climatic events in biological contexts can occur in any environment. Focusing on field and laboratory data on wild birds we propose a mechanistic approach to defining and investigating what extreme climatic events are and how animals cope with them at physiological and behavioural levels. The life cycle of birds is made up of life-history stages such as migration, breeding and moult that evolved to match a range of environmental conditions an individual might expect during the year. When environmental conditions deteriorate and deviate from the expected range then the individual must trigger coping mechanisms (emergency life-history stage) that will disrupt the temporal progression of life-history stages, but enhance survival. Using the framework of allostasis, we argue that an extreme climatic event in biological contexts can be defined as when the cumulative resources available to an individual are exceeded by the sum of its energetic costs-a state called allostatic overload. This allostatic overload triggers the emergency life-history stage that temporarily allows the individual to cease regular activities in an attempt to survive extreme conditions. We propose that glucocorticoid hormones play a major role in orchestrating coping mechanisms and are critical for enduring extreme climatic events.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'.

Climate warming is affecting the Arctic in multiple ways, including via increased dominance of deciduous shrubs. Although many studies have focused on how this vegetation shift is altering nutrient cycling and energy balance, few have explicitly considered effects on tundra fauna, such as the millions of migratory songbirds that breed in northern regions every year. To understand how increasing deciduous shrub dominance may alter breeding songbird habitat, we quantified vegetation and arthropod community characteristics in both graminoid and shrub dominated tundra. We combined measurements of preferred nest site characteristics for Lapland longspurs (Calcarius lapponicus) and Gambel's White-crowned sparrows (Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii) with modeled predictions for the distribution of plant community types in the Alaskan arctic foothills region for the year 2050. Lapland longspur nests were found in sedge-dominated tussock tundra where shrub height does not exceed 20 cm, whereas White-crowned sparrows nested only under shrubs between 20 cm and 1 m in height, with no preference for shrub species. Shrub canopies had higher canopy-dwelling arthropod availability (i.e. small flies and spiders) but lower ground-dwelling arthropod availability (i.e. large spiders and beetles). Since flies are the birds' preferred prey, increasing shrubs may result in a net enhancement in preferred prey availability. Acknowledging the coarse resolution of existing tundra vegetation models, we predict that by 2050 there will be a northward shift in current White-crowned sparrow habitat range and a 20-60% increase in their preferred habitat extent, while Lapland longspur habitat extent will be equivalently reduced. Our findings can be used to make first approximations of future habitat change for species with similar nesting requirements. However, we contend that as exemplified by this study's findings, existing tundra modeling tools cannot yet simulate the fine-scale habitat characteristics that are critical to accurately predicting future habitat extent for many wildlife species.

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Hematocrit is an easily measured parameter that can be used to assess changes in oxygen carrying capacity necessitated by fluctuations in metabolic demands. Most hematocrit studies draw conclusions from changes in hematocrit that occur over a small sampling interval without an understanding of the variation that exists across the annual cycle. White-crowned sparrows provide an excellent model system due to the existence of a resident subspecies (Zonotrichia leucophrys nuttalli) that serves as a natural control for a migrant subspecies (Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii). Comparing these two subspecies allows for the investigation of adaptive physiological changes at each life-history stage (i.e., migration, breeding, molt, etc.) in response to changing metabolic demands. Of particular interest, this subspecies comparison, by both calendar month and life-history stage, allows for the separation of adaptive increases in hematocrit due to migration from the natural seasonal variation in hematocrit. Hematocrit levels for males and females ranged throughout the year between 42%-47% and 40%-47% in the resident and between 45%-58% and 45%-56% in the migrant. In both subspecies, hematocrit levels were elevated during the breeding season compared to the nonbreeding season, and levels were reduced in females during egg laying. When grouped by life-history stage, hematocrit levels were always higher in the migrant compared to the resident. During the months in which migration occurred, hematocrit levels were 10%-12% higher in the migrant compared to the resident subspecies. These data suggest differential regulation of hematocrit between the two subspecies that may be attributed to phenotypic plasticity or genetic differences.

HighlightsThe spring of 2013 was extreme with record low temperatures and snow cover.Arrival of migrant birds in Arctic was significantly delayed in 2013 compared to 3 other years.Body condition was negatively affected in white-crowned sparrows and Lapland longspurs.Stress physiology was increased in Lapland longspurs but not white-crowned sparrows.Extreme events have the capacity to affect phenology, body condition and stress physiology.

Arctic regions are warming rapidly, with extreme weather events increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity just as in other regions. Many studies have focused on how shifting seasonality in environmental conditions affects vegetation phenology, while far fewer have examined how the breeding phenology of arctic fauna responds. We studied two species of long-distance migratory songbirds, Lapland longspurs, Calcarius lapponicus, and white-crowned sparrows, Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii, across five consecutive breeding seasons in northern Alaskan tundra. We aimed to understand how spring environmental conditions affected breeding cycle phenology, including the timing of arrival on breeding grounds, territory establishment, and clutch initiation. Spring temperatures, precipitation, and snow-free dates differed significantly among years, with 2013 characterized by unusually late snow cover. In response, we found a significant delay in breeding-cycle phenology for both study species in 2013 relative to other study years: the first bird observed was delayed by 6-10 days, with mean arrival by 3-6 days, territory establishment by 6-13 days, and clutch initiation by 4-10 days. Further, snow cover, temperature, and precipitation during the territory establishment period were important predictors of clutch initiation dates for both species. These findings suggest that Arctic-breeding passerine communities may have the flexibility required to adjust breeding phenology in response to the increasingly extreme and unpredictable environmental conditions-although future generations may encounter conditions that exceed their current range of phenological flexibility.

Individuals at the forefront of a range shift are likely to exhibit phenotypic traits that distinguish them from the population breeding within the historic range. Recent studies have examined morphological, physiological and behavioral phenotypes of individuals at the edge of their range. Several studies have found differences in the hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis activity in response to acute restraint stress in individuals at the range limits. HPA axis activation leads to elevations in glucocorticoids that regulate physiology and behavior. Here we compare the hormonal profiles and morphometrics from Gambel’s white-crowned sparrows (Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii) breeding at the northern limit of the population’s range to those birds breeding within the historic population range. Birds breeding at the northern limit experienced a harsher environment with colder temperatures; however, we found no differences in arthropod prey biomass between the northern limit and more southern (historic) sites. Males at the northern limit had higher body condition scores (mass corrected for body size) compared to individuals within the historic range, but no differences were found in beak and tarsus lengths, wing chord, muscle profile or fat stores. In males during the pre-parental stage, before breeding commenced, HPA axis activity was elevated in birds at the northern limit of the range, but no differences were found during the parental or molt stages. Females showed no differences in HPA axis activity during the parental stage. This study suggests that “pioneering” individuals at the limits of their breeding range exhibit physiology and morphology that are distinct from individuals within the historic range.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00442-015-3447-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.