IntroductionThere is in the contemporary shipping industry a presumption of an impending shortage of seafarers, specifically officers. This paper questions as to whether such a shortage will in fact occur through an analysis of the current and potential manning levels and seaborne trade forecasts. It begins with an analysis of the supply position followed by estimates of seafarer demand. It further considers the regional trends and divisions between senior officers, junior officers and ratings, and measures to improve the recruitment in the traditional maritime areas.The BIMCO/ISF Manpower Update estimates the worldwide supply of seafarers at 1 227 000, comprising 404 000 officers and 823 000 ratings [1], with the majority originating from a comparatively small number of countries. Over recent decades, changes in economic and commercial activities have been fundamental in the restructuring of the international seafaring labour force. This has been combined with changes in the structure of seafarer employment. At its simplest there has been a relentless decline in the number of seafarers coming from developed countries, due to an appreciable reduction in recruitment and retention. Thus the age structure of this group has become progressively older. The lack of suitable seafarers from developed countries, coupled with a desire to reduce labour unit costs, has created an increasing demand for seafarers from developing countries. These are the main elements which have gradually created a remarkable new concept, that of the seafarer labour-supply country, the majority of which having what can be termed no maritime tradition. Initially the vast majority of these seafarers from these countries were ratings, but they are now supplying a growing number of officers.
The primary aim here is an attempt to measure the impact of foreign exchange movements on the operating results of the shipping industry. The issue arises from the imposition of a volatile foreign exchange market on a freight market structure which ® xes revenues in US dollars. Despite attempts to shift costs into dollars, some other currency liabilities still remain, making exposure to exchange rate¯uctuations inevitable. The contemporary experience of the Norwegian industry is used to analyse the cost structure in terms of currency denomination, the volatility in the real Kroner/US dollar exchange rate, and the sensitivity of the operating results to these¯uctuations. This serves to highlight the commercial vulnerability of shipping companies. Exposure can be seen in a positive or negative light depending on the direction of movement in the exchange rate. Operating pro® ts can rise and fall dramatically simply because of these exchange rate movements.
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