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Low dissolved oxygen events were characterized in Narragansett Bay (NB), a moderate-size (370 km 2 ) temperate estuary with a complex passage/embayment geometry, using time series from 2001 to 2006 at nine fixed-site monitoring stations. Metrics for event intensity and severity were the event-mean deficit relative to a threshold (mg O 2 l −1 ) and the deficit-duration (mg O 2 l −1 day; product of deficit and duration [day]). Hypoxia (threshold 2.9 mg O 2 l −1 ) typically occurred intermittently from late June through August at most stations, as multiple (two to five per season) events each 2 to 7 days long with deficit-duration 2 to 5 mg O 2 l −1 day. Conditions were more severe to the north and west, a pattern attributed to a northsouth nutrient/productivity gradient and east-west structure of residual circulation. Spatial patterns for suboxic and severely hypoxic events (thresholds 4.8 and 1.4 mg O 2 l −1 ) were similar. The view that different processes govern event variability in different regions, each influenced by local hydrodynamics, is supported by both weak spatial synchronicity (quantified using overlap of event times at different sites) and multiple linear regressions of biological and physical parameters against event severity. Interannual changes were prominent and season-cumulative hypoxia severity correlated with June-mean river runoff and Junemean stratification. Benthic ecological implications for areas experiencing events include: NB hypoxia classifies as periodic/episodic on a near-annual basis; highest direct mortality risk is to sensitive and moderately sensitive sessile species in the northern West Passage and western Greenwich Bay, with some risk to Upper Bay; direct risk to mobile species may be ameliorated by weak spatial synchronicity; and indirect impacts, including reduced growth rates and shifts in predator-prey balances, are very likely throughout the sampled area due to observed suboxic and hypoxic conditions.

Many urban estuaries worldwide suffer from excess phytoplankton and hypoxia (low oxygen) due to high nutrient loads. A common water quality management strategy is to require wastewater treatment facility upgrades. This case study examines Narragansett Bay, a warming temperate mid-latitude urban estuary with seasonal periodic hypoxia, during June through September from 2005 to 2019. Within this period, numerous facilities were upgraded to nitrogen removal over several years. The response of the bay is more consistent with “textbook” expectations for reduced chlorophyll and hypoxia than what was seen in many other systems—despite its complex coastline geometry, numerous river inputs, and widely-distributed treatment facilities. River flow drives inter-annual variability with increased load, density stratification, chlorophyll, and hypoxia in wet years. Mean 2013-2019 bay-wide total nitrogen load was 34% less than the 2005-2012 mean, a reduction of about 106 kg yr-1, comparable to the range of flow-driven inter-annual variations. Chlorophyll Index and Hypoxia Index event-based metrics applied to high-frequency time series observations at eight sites quantify exceedances of severe and moderate thresholds. Relatively steady 33% and 16% Chlorophyll Index declines, for severe and moderate thresholds, occurred from about 2007 to 2019. The Hypoxia Index declined markedly by 2009 and 2014 for severe and moderate thresholds, respectively, and remained at or near zero from 2014 to 2019. The load reduction explains chlorophyll and hypoxia declines better than physical processes including river flow, stratification, tidal variations, winds, sea level differences, and temperatures. River flow about 55% higher than the 2005-2019 mean would increase non-treatment facility loads by an amount comparable to the managed load decrease, so future wet summers could partially reverse the improvements. Long-term trends include warming of about 0.5°C decade-1, which reduces oxygen saturation by 0.1 mg l-1 decade-1. This rate is likely a lower bound for temperature-driven oxygen decreases, because warming can also accelerate phytoplankton growth and bacterial consumption. Without warming, the managed load decrease would have curtailed hypoxia more effectively. Climate trends should be at least as important to future eutrophication as the managed load decline because, in addition to warming influences, long-term increases in river flow would increase load and stratification.

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