Field development profitability is a function of many income and expense factors such as capital expenditures (CAPEX), operating expenditures (OPEX), production rate, product price and the frequency of component failures. Component failures reduce the field total production rate and increase OPEX. Regardless of the chosen concept, the ability to efficiently keep production wells on stream is one of the most important factors determining field economic performance. When moving into deeper water, subsea interventions become more expensive and are associated with longer waiting times for the required intervention vessels. Furthermore, deepwater developments rely on new technology, which has yet to be field proven. This paper demonstrates how Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) analysis can be used to quantify the costs associated with well interventions and subsea repairs. These costs can be combined with estimates of CAPEX and OPEX to select efficient subsea deepwater solutions from a total lifecycle cost perspective. Until recently deepwater ventures were evaluated based on the balance between potential revenue, (CAPEX) and operational expenditures (OPEX). Little effort was put into evaluating the potential of lost revenue and expensive intervention costs due to component failures. RAM Analysis is a systematic approach to evaluate the uncertainty related to these "unforeseen" events, and can strengthen the decision making process. This paper describes the RAM analysis methodology, and illustrates some of the benefits of applying it. Furthermore, an overview of industry initiatives currently carried out by the deepwater industry to develop and to qualify new technology is given Introduction: During the last forty years technology has been essential to provide access to hydrocarbon resources increasingly difficult to reach and produce. The economical efficiency of these new achievements was never questioned as long as margins were high and the demand was growing. Over the last decades however, finding and producing quickly was no longer the only objective, companies were forced to cut costs and produce and explore more efficiently. Today, access to the resources and cost reduction are combined efforts in the industry, and remarkable improvements have been made within different disciplines in order to meet the demand for faster and more cost efficient exploration and production. Within the field of drilling technology for example, mastering horizontal drilling has allowed for more complex well architecture, which has reduced the required number of wells and improved productivity. The latest achievement in this area, is the development of intelligent well completions allowing for predrilled wells with access to several zones, which reduce later costs associated with re-completion of the reservoir. Technological improvements have allowed oil and gas developments to emerge into deep and ultra-deep waters, introducing an operating environment not encountered in shallow water. Following this trend, it is essential to understand the various uncertainties associated with operation in these new environments, and accept full accountability for the economical consequences. The current deep and ultra-deep water developments in the Gulf of Mexico are forcing operators and manufacturers to look for new cost efficient solutions without compromising safety, property or the environmental issues.
As oil and gas projects explore more and more challenging territories, and as public opinion is increasingly aware of risks from drilling operations, it is of furthermost importance to better understand and systematically manage these risks.For every well project on the Norwegian sector, the risks from a blowout are studied from the safety and the environmental perspective, through Quantitative Risk Assessments and Environmental Risk Analyses, respectively. The blowout characteristics (probability, flow rates, durations) are among the most influent input parameters for these analyses. Traditionally these parameters have been extracted from available historical statistics from blowout databases. These databases provide generic data with very limited consideration for the well and operation specific characteristics (e.g. exploration, development, HPHT).DNV has developed a methodology for the assessment of blowout risks in order to better understand them and to be able to provide a more realistic risk picture. A multidisciplinary approach is applied during the risk assessment process, assessing the drilling or well operations according to a set of predefined criteria or risk factors. This benchmarking analysis is used as a basis for assessing the probability of a leak or a blowout. Well flow simulations are used and adjusted in order to assess the well specific leak and blowout rates for the different operations. The potential leak and blowout durations are calculated using statistical models and taking into account the context of the drilling and well operations.This new method considers the field specific reservoir challenges, best available technology and best operational practices in order to generate a more field and operation specific risk exposure. The results are more accurate risk predictions. Traditional analysis may be too conservative and would typically not reflect the actual well conditions, barriers and operational steps. Relevant examples from the Norwegian sector are presented.
Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) has been used to identify and manage risks in the Oil & Gas industry for decades. However, the important steps of well construction and well intervention operations have typically only been addressed using generic data, if even quantified at all. This data, which primarily is based on North Sea experience, may not be relevant for the specific well operations being evaluated. Further, using generic data does not provide a basis to identify relevant risks and support in identifying and implementing effective risk reducing measures. Quantitative Risk Assessments are used to improve safety while at the same time manage and assure cost effective risk mitigating measures are implemented. By identifying the key risk drivers and main contributors to the risk exposure, the QRA provides a tool to prioritize and focus on the most cost effective risk reducing solutions. Further, when different risk reducing, or risk mitigating, measures are proposed, the QRA is an effective tool to compare and evaluate the effect of these different risk reducing measures and help select optimal solutions. These evaluations are however only possible if the QRA model is relevant and includes information and relevant assumptions related to the specific well operation. Thus, only when the QRA incorporates information about the specific drilling or well operation being evaluated, can it be used to evaluate if: The drilling and well control equipment is adequate.The operating procedures are appropriate and address the relevant risks.That the crew and personnel have the required competence and experience. By incorporating the relevant and specific information related to the drilling or well operation being evaluated, the QRA can provide a powerful tool to prioritize and evaluate effective risk reducing or risk preventive measures, and systematically be used to manage well control and well integrity challenge related to the well and well operations. In this paper, a systematic approach and methodology to perform QRAs for well construction and well intervention operations is presented. Similar to traditional topside process QRAs, which evaluate the process layout (P&IDs), safety and shutdown systems, the well QRA addresses the specific well operations. The methodology considers and evaluates the actual well and subsurface conditions, the drilling rig, drilling and well control equipment, in addition to the procedures and the competence of the drilling crew involved in the operation. The methodology is demonstrated through a few case examples taken from specific well QRA studies.
fax 01-972-952-9435. AbstractExploration and development drilling continues to move toward deeper targets both in terms of water depth and reservoir depth. It is characterized by significant costs, technical challenges and high consequences of failure. Significant costs can easily turn a discovery into a marginal field, making it unattractive to pursue. Technology plays an important role in reducing drilling time and well cost. Application of technology (proven technology applied to new areas and new technology) has considerable potential, but also has high risk exposure. A risk management process becomes essential for successful drilling programs. Key components of risk management as it relates to drilling applications include identification and management of well control risks, economic risks associated with non-productive time, unplanned events and equipment reliability, and qualification of technology prior to application. In most situations, capital expenditure and operational expenditure are used to determine which path a project should take. A third component, expenditure associated with risk, is not often considered and yet can drastically alter the overall expenditure of a selection to the point of making it a bad choice. Case studies are presented in this paper of application of risk management to several different areas including active heave drawworks, dry tree completions and subsea completions.In all cases the application of risk management reduced risks in terms of both economics and safety. It is imperative to manage risk and uncertainty in the application and development of new technology in order to keep the new frontiers of drilling economically viable.
The oil and gas industry is emerging into deep and ultra-deep waters, introducing an operating environment not encountered in shallow water. Further, these deepwater development prospects are typically characterized by large investments, tight time schedules and the introduction of technology under unproven conditions. These and other challenges result in higher risk exposure but also the potential for opportunities that should be exploited. This paper demonstrates the potential value of an integrated risk management plan for subsea deepwater developments. The paper presents a methodology for systematic evaluation of the system, applying risk and reliability techniques in combination with verification and qualification procedures, to identify technical uncertainties and successfully manage these risks and uncertainties. Reliability management using the systematics of qualifying new technology and a structured risk management program provides a powerful tool to assure project objectives are met, and uncertainties are managed throughout the project execution. The methodology supports and stresses the need for multidisciplinary assessment of the field development solutions, and the value of integrated risk management efforts. By implementing risk management plans and applying risk and reliability techniques to the total development project, risks are reduced, but possibly even more important, opportunities can be discovered and decisions can be made with a better understanding of the total risks and consequences. These techniques can be used to proactively identify shortcomings that may otherwise have gone unnoticed. Further, having a better understanding of the uncertainties involved, ultimately result in possibilities to reduce these uncertainties and assist in the decision making process when evaluating subsea developments. Introduction The increase in deepwater development has had a significant impact on overall GOM production. While the shallow-water GOM oil production generally has declined over the last decades, deepwater GOM oil production has more than offset the recent decline in shallow-water production. This trend is expected to continue to increase over the next 5 years. Technological improvements have allowed oil and gas developments to emerge into deep and ultra-deep waters, introducing an operating environment not encountered in shallow water. While deepwater developments were dominated by the major oil and gas companies (defined here to include BP, ChevronTexaco, ExxonMobil, and Shell) a decade ago, more and more of the non-majors are beginning to explore and develop deepwater assets. Fast track projects and the use of subsea solutions is cutting investment costs and increasing the revenues due to the reduced time to first oil, however the economic risks related to some of these deepwater developments could be significant. Following this trend, it is essential to understand the various uncertainties associated with operation in these new environments, and accept full accountability for the economical consequences. The current deep and ultra-deep water developments in the Gulf of Mexico are forcing operators and manufacturers to look for new cost efficient solutions without compromising safety, property or the environmental issues. Managing the growing economical risk for a deepwater developments, is becoming an increasing challenge for the operators, putting pressure on designers, certification and classification agents.
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