Health Technology Assessment is indexed in Index Medicus/MEDLINE and Excerpta Medica/ EMBASE. Copies of the Executive Summaries are available from the NCCHTA website (see opposite). NHS R&D HTA Programme T he NHS R&D Health Technology Assessment (HTA) Programme was set up in 1993 to ensure that high-quality research information on the costs, effectiveness and broader impact of health technologies is produced in the most efficient way for those who use, manage and provide care in the NHS. Initially, six HTA panels (pharmaceuticals, acute sector, primary and community care, diagnostics and imaging, population screening, methodology) helped to set the research priorities for the HTA Programme. However, during the past few years there have been a number of changes in and around NHS R&D, such as the establishment of the National Institute for Clinical Excellence (NICE) and the creation of three new research programmes: Service Delivery and Organisation (SDO); New and Emerging Applications of Technology (NEAT); and the Methodology Programme. Although the National Coordinating Centre for Health Technology Assessment (NCCHTA) commissions research on behalf of the Methodology Programme, it is the Methodology Group that now considers and advises the Methodology Programme Director on the best research projects to pursue. The research reported in this monograph was funded as project number 93/45/02. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the Methodology Programme, HTA Programme or the Department of Health. The editors wish to emphasise that funding and publication of this research by the NHS should not be taken as implicit support for any recommendations made by the authors.
The recent controversy surrounding the use of the reflex anal dilatation (RAD) sign in cases of suspected sexual abuse is a general illustration of the difficulties clinicians face in determining which symptoms, signs or laboratory tests to use in their daily practice. The evidence required fully to evaluate RAD is incomplete. The specificity in particular is uncertain. Sufficient evidence is, however, available to permit a quantitative examination of the test's performance under various circumstances. Our analysis suggests that, at the prevalence of anal abuse reported in one large series of children referred to paediatricians with suspected sexual abuse (13%), only if the specificity of the test is 99% or greater, may the positive predictive value of RAD be as high as 90%. At the likely prevalence of anal abuse in the general child population (less than 0.5%), however, an even higher specificity of 99.99% would be necessary to achieve a similar positive predictive value.
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