No abstract

Objective To develop and internally validate a model that predicts the outcome of an intended vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) for a Western European population that can be used to personalise counselling for deliveries at term.Design Registration-based retrospective cohort study.Setting Five university teaching hospitals, seven non-university teaching hospitals, and five non-university non-teaching hospitals in the Netherlands.Population A cohort of 515 women with a history of one caesarean section and a viable singleton pregnancy, without a contraindication for intended VBAC, who delivered at term.Methods Potential predictors for a vaginal delivery after caesarean section were chosen based on literature and expert opinions. We internally validated the prediction model using bootstrapping techniques.Main outcome measures Predictors for VBAC. For model validation, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for discriminative capacity and calibrationper-risk-quantile for accuracy were calculated.Results A total of 371 out of 515 women had a VBAC (72%). Variables included in the model were: estimated fetal weight greater than the 90 th percentile in the third trimester; previous non-progressive labour; previous vaginal delivery; induction of labour; pre-pregnancy body mass index; and ethnicity. The AUC was 71% (95% confidence interval, 95% CI = 69-73%), indicating a good discriminative ability. The calibration plot shows that the predicted probabilities are well calibrated, especially from 65% up, which accounts for 77% of the total study population. ConclusionWe developed an appropriate Western European population-based prediction model that is aimed to personalise counselling for term deliveries.

Several experimental models of osteoarthritis in rats are used to study the pathophysiology of osteoarthritis. Many mechanically induced models have the limitation that permanent joint instability is induced by, for example, ligament transection or meniscal damage. This permanent instability will counteract the potential beneficial effects of therapy. The groove model of osteoarthritis uses a one‐time trigger, surgically induced cartilage damage on the femoral condyles, and has been validated for the canine tibia‐femoral compartment. The present study evaluates this model for the rat knee joint. The articular cartilage of the weight bearing surface of both femoral condyles and trochlea were damaged (grooved) without damaging the underlying subchondral bone. Severity of joint degeneration was histologically assessed, in addition to patella cartilage damage, and subchondral bone characteristics by means of (contrast‐enhanced) micro‐CT. Mild histological degeneration of the surgically untouched tibial plateau cartilage was observed in addition to damage of the femoral condyles, without clear synovial tissue inflammation. Contrast enhanced micro‐CT demonstrated proteoglycan loss of the surgically untouched patella cartilage. Besides, a more sclerotic structure of the subchondral bone was observed. The tibia‐femoral groove model in a rat results in mild knee joint degeneration, without permanent joint instability and joint inflammation. This makes the rat groove model a useful model to study the onset and progression of post‐traumatic non‐inflammatory osteoarthritis, creating a relatively sensitive model to study disease modifying osteoarthritic drugs. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Orthopaedic Research published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the Orthopaedic Research Society. J Orthop Res 35:496–505, 2017.

Pain is the major debilitating symptom of osteoarthritis (OA), which is difficult to treat. In OA patients joint tissue damage only poorly associates with pain, indicating other mechanisms contribute to OA pain. Immune cells regulate the sensory system, but little is known about the involvement of immune cells in OA pain. Here, we report that macrophages accumulate in the dorsal root ganglia (DRG) distant from the site of injury in two rodent models of OA. DRG macrophages acquired an M1-like phenotype, and depletion of DRG macrophages resolved OA pain in male and female mice. Sensory neurons innervating the damaged knee joint shape DRG macrophages into an M1-like phenotype. Persisting OA pain, accumulation of DRG macrophages, and programming of DRG macrophages into an M1-like phenotype were independent of Na v 1.8 nociceptors. Inhibition of M1-like macrophages in the DRG by intrathecal injection of an IL4-IL10 fusion protein or M2-like macrophages resolved persistent OA pain. In conclusion, these findings reveal a crucial role for macrophages in maintaining OA pain independent of the joint damage and suggest a new direction to treat OA pain.

Objective To externally validate two models from the USA (entry-to-care [ETC] and close-to-delivery [CTD]) that predict successful intended vaginal birth after caesarean (VBAC) for the Dutch population.Design A nationwide registration-based cohort study.Setting Seventeen hospitals in the Netherlands.Population Seven hundred and sixty-three pregnant women, each with one previous caesarean section and a viable singleton cephalic pregnancy without a contraindication for an intended VBAC. MethodsThe ETC model comprises the variables maternal age, prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), ethnicity, previous vaginal delivery, previous VBAC and previous nonprogressive labour. The CTD model replaces prepregnancy BMI with third-trimester BMI and adds estimated gestational age at delivery, hypertensive disease of pregnancy, cervical examination and induction of labour. We included consecutive medical records of eligible women who delivered in 2010. For validation, individual probabilities of women who had an intended VBAC were calculated.Main outcome measures Discriminative performance was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic and predictive performance was assessed with calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) statistic.Results Five hundred and fifteen (67%) of the 763 women had an intended VBAC; 72% of these (371) had an actual VBAC. The AUCs of the ETC and CTD models were 68% (95% CI 63-72%) and 72% (95% CI 67-76%), respectively. The H-L statistic showed a P-value of 0.167 for the ETC model and P = 0.356 for the CTD model, indicating no lack of fit.Conclusion External validation of two predictive models developed in the USA revealed an adequate performance within the Dutch population.Keywords External validation, prediction, vaginal birth after caesarean.Please cite this paper as: Schoorel ENC, Melman S, van Kuijk SMJ, Grobman WA, Kwee A, Mol BWJ, Nijhuis JG, Smits LJM, Aardenburg R, de Boer K, Delemarre FMC, van Dooren IM, Franssen MTM, Kleiverda G, Kaplan M, Kuppens SMI, Lim FTH, Sikkema JM, Smid-Koopman E, Visser H, Vrouenraets FPJM, Woiski M, Hermens RPMG, Scheepers HCJ. Predicting successful intended vaginal delivery after previous caesarean section: external validation of two predictive models in a Dutch nationwide registration-based cohort with a high intended vaginal delivery rate. BJOG 2014;121:840-847.

Background Double-layer compared to single-layer closure of the uterus after a caesarean section (CS) leads to a thicker myometrial layer at the site of the CS scar, also called residual myometrium thickness (RMT). It possibly decreases the development of a niche, which is an interruption of the myometrium at the site of the uterine scar. Thin RMT and a niche are associated with gynaecological symptoms, obstetric complications in a subsequent pregnancy and delivery and possibly with subfertility. Methods Women undergoing a first CS regardless of the gestational age will be asked to participate in this multicentre, double blinded randomised controlled trial (RCT). They will be randomised to single-layer closure or double-layer closure of the uterine incision. Single-layer closure (control group) is performed with a continuous running, unlocked suture, with or without endometrial saving technique. Double-layer closure (intervention group) is performed with the first layer in a continuous unlocked suture including the endometrial layer and the second layer is also continuous unlocked and imbricates the first. The primary outcome is the reported number of days with postmenstrual spotting during one menstrual cycle nine months after CS. Secondary outcomes include surgical data, ultrasound evaluation at three months, menstrual pattern, dysmenorrhea, quality of life, and sexual function at nine months. Structured transvaginal ultrasound (TVUS) evaluation is performed to assess the uterine scar and if necessary saline infusion sonohysterography (SIS) or gel instillation sonohysterography (GIS) will be added to the examination. Women and ultrasound examiners will be blinded for allocation. Reproductive outcomes at three years follow-up including fertility, mode of delivery and complications in subsequent deliveries will be studied as well. Analyses will be performed by intention to treat. 2290 women have to be randomised to show a reduction of 15% in the mean number of spotting days. Additionally, a cost-effectiveness analysis will be performed from a societal perspective. Discussion This RCT will provide insight in the outcomes of single- compared to double-layer closure technique after CS, including postmenstrual spotting and subfertility in relation to niche development measured by ultrasound. Trial registration Dutch Trial Register ( NTR5480 ). Registered 29 October 2015. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-019-2221-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Major hallmarks of osteoarthritis (OA) are cartilage degeneration, inflammation and osteophyte formation. COX-2 inhibitors counteract inflammation-related pain, but their prolonged oral use entails the risk for side effects. Local and prolonged administration in biocompatible and degradable drug delivery biomaterials could offer an efficient and safe treatment for the long-term management of OA symptoms. Therefore, we evaluated the disease-modifying effects and the optimal dose of polyesteramide microspheres delivering the COX-2 inhibitor celecoxib in a rat OA model. Four weeks after OA induction by anterior cruciate ligament transection and partial medial meniscectomy, 8-week-old female rats (n = 6/group) were injected intra-articular with celecoxib-loaded microspheres at three dosages (0.03, 0.23 or 0.39 mg). Unloaded microspheres served as control. During the 16-week follow-up, static weight bearing and plasma celecoxib concentrations were monitored. Post-mortem, micro-computed tomography and knee joint histology determined progression of synovitis, osteophyte formation, subchondral bone changes, and cartilage integrity. Systemic celecoxib levels were below the detection limit 6 days upon delivery. Systemic and local adverse effects were absent. Local delivery of celecoxib reduced the formation of osteophytes, subchondral sclerosis, bone cysts and calcified loose bodies, and reduced synovial inflammation, while cartilage histology was unaffected. Even though the effects on pain could not be evualated directly in the current model, our results suggest the application of celecoxib-loaded microspheres holds promise as novel, safe and effective treatment for inflammation and pain in OA.

Evidence is growing for the existence of an obesity-related phenotype of osteoarthritis in which low-grade inflammation and a disturbed metabolic profile play a role. The contribution of an obesity-induced metabolic dysbalance to the progression of the features of osteoarthritis upon mechanically induced cartilage damage was studied in a rat in vivo model. Forty Wistar rats were randomly allocated 1:1 to a standard diet or a high-fat diet. After 12 weeks, in 14 out of 20 rats in each group, cartilage was mechanically damaged in the right knee joint. The remaining six animals in each group served as controls. After a subsequent 12 weeks, serum was collected for metabolic state, subchondral bone changes assessed by μCT imaging, osteoarthritis severity determined by histology, and macrophage presence assessed by CD68 staining. The high-fat diet increased statistically all relevant metabolic parameters, resulting in a dysmetabolic state and subsequent synovial inflammation, whereas cartilage degeneration was hardly influenced. The high-fat condition in combination with mechanical cartilage damage resulted in a clear statistically significant progression of the osteoarthritic features, with increased synovitis and multiple large osteophytes. Both the synovium and osteophytes contained numerous CD68 positive cells. It is concluded that a metabolic dysbalance due to a high-fat diet increases joint inflammation without cartilage degeneration. The dysmetabolic state clearly accelerates progression of osteoarthritis upon surgically induced cartilage damage supported by inflammatory responses as demonstrated by histology and increased CD68 expressing cells localized on the synovial membrane and osteophytes. © 2017 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 36:881-890, 2018.