A carbon tax should be considered among the range of instruments available to the South African government, economy and society, as part of a broad portfolio of mitigation actions. A carbon tax was one of the most effective wedges or mitigation options analysed for the Long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS) for South Africa. The LTMS strategic option ‘Using the market’ reduced emissions roughly as required by Science, for several decades. The LTMS research indicated that the effectiveness increases, up to certain tax levels. South Africa might consider a tax starting around R100-200 / t CO2eq, escalating in future. Our paper presents results on research on a carbon tax in South Africa conducted in 2008 and was presented at the Climate Change Summit 2009. The efficiency with which a carbon tax achieves the goal of reducing GHG emissions depends on responsiveness and substitutability. This is shown more fully on the supply-side, while further work will be needed to fully understand the response to a carbon tax on the demand side. Careful design of a carbon tax (or other economic instruments considered) will be important to ensure that it is effective in meeting its objective – reducing GHG emissions. We propose a price discovery and adjustment mechanism that sets a band around the desired ‘peak, plateau and decline’ trajectory. Equity demands that poor households, in particular, be shielded from any burden. Off-setting incentives, such as food subsidies or reduced VAT on basic goods, should in finance measure that which will ensure that the package of tax and incentives is a net benefit to the poor – and not to treat the tax as a revenue-raising instrument. With appropriate design, a carbon tax can be a powerful instrument of mitigation in South Africa, and at the same time, contribute to socio-economic objectives.
An innovative approach is introduced for helping developing countries to make their development more sustainable, and also to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a co-benefit. Such an approach is proposed as part of the multilateral framework on climate change. The concept of sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs) is outlined, making clear that it is distinct from many other approaches in starting from development rather than explicit climate targets. The potential of SD-PAMs is illustrated with a case-study of energy efficiency in South Africa, drawing on energy modelling for the use of electricity in industry. The results show multiple benefits both for local sustainable development and for mitigating global climate change. The benefits of industrial energy efficiency in South Africa include significant reductions in local air pollutants; improved environmental health; creation of additional jobs; reduced electricity demand; and delays in new investments in electricity generation. The co-benefit of reducing GHG emissions could result in a reduction of as much as 5% of SA's total projected energy CO 2 emissions by 2020. Institutional support and policy guidance is needed at both the international and national level to realize the potential of SD-PAMs. This analysis demonstrates that if countries begin to act early to move towards greater sustainability, they will also start to bend the curve of their emissions path. Une nouvelle approche au développement durable est proposée pour les pays en développement qui leur permettrait aussi de réduire leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Cette approche est proposée au sein du cadre multilatéral des politiques climatiques. En ayant comme point de départ le développement, et non un objectif climatique défini, le concept de politiques et mesures de développement durable (PM-DD) se distingue clairement de beaucoup d'autres approches. Le potentiel des PM-DD est illustré en s'appuyant sur une étude de cas d'efficacité énergétique enAfrique du sud, où la consommation d'énergie du secteur industriel est calculée. Les résultats sont positifs autant pour le développement durable local que pour la limitation des changements climatiques. L'efficacité énergétique en Afrique du sud donne lieu à une réduction considérable de la pollution atmosphérique locale , l'amélioration de la santé environnementale , la création d'emplois , la réduction de la demande en électricité, et un décalage temporel sur la nécessité des investissements de production énergétique. Les avantages environnementaux associés à la réduction de GES pourraient être aussi élevés que 5% des émissions totales en CO 2 du secteur énergétique sud-africain. Un soutien institutionnel et des directions politiques claires sont souhaitables aux niveaux national et international pour mettre en oeuvre le potentiel des PM-DD. L'analyse présentée illustre que si les pays se mettent à agir tôt en matière de développement durable, leur niveau d'émissions peut commencer à baisser de façon notable.
How can the concept of sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs) be operationalized in a multilateral climate regime? The strategic approach is to focus on policies and measures that are firmly within the national sustainable development priorities of developing countries but which, through the inclusion in an international climate framework, recognize, promote and support means of meeting these policy priorities on a lower-carbon trajectory. The concept of SD-PAMs is further elaborated in two ways: (1) possible methods for quantifying SD-PAMs and (2) policy design. An important step in operationalizing the concept of SD-PAMs is the examination of available methods to quantify their benefits. Four ways to quantify the effect of SD-PAMs on development and emissions are identified: (1) case studies, (2) national energy modelling, (3) analysis of sectoral data and (4) inclusion of policies in global emission allocation models. Each of the methodological approaches has its strengths and weaknesses, but these approaches are demonstrated as being capable of quantifying the effect of SD-PAMs on development and emissions. Formalizing the commitment of SD-PAMs could be aided by more fully elaborating these methodologies. Formal recognition could be given either by listing countries in an Annex to the Convention or by including the pledged policies in a dedicated register. Regular reporting on the sustainable development and climate benefits of SD-PAMs could take place through national communications or a separate reporting mechanism. Incentives for SD-PAMs could come from both climate and non-climate funding. Development funding through other agencies could also be mobilized. International finance will be critical, as will the mobilization of domestic investment. Comment le concept des politiques et mesures de développement durable (SD-PAMs) peut-il être opérationnalisé dans un régime climatique multilatéral? L'approche stratégique est de se concentrer sur les politiques et mesures étant fermement ancrées dans les priorités nationales de développement durable des pays en développement, mais surtout dans leur inclusion dans un cadre climatique international qui reconnait, encourage et soutient les efforts à dessein de satisfaire ces priorités politiques selon une trajectoire sobre en carbone. Le concept des SD-PAMs est davantage élaboré de deux manières: méthodes possible de quantification des SD-PAMs et forme des politiques. Une étape importante d'opérationnalisation du concept des SD-PAMs est l'examen des méthodes disponibles au calcul de leurs bénéfices. Quatre moyens ont été identifiés pour quantifier l'effet des SD-PAMs sur le développement et les émissions: études de cas, modélisation énergétique nationale, analyse de données sectorielles et inclusion des politiques dans les modèles d'allocation d'émissions à l'échelle mondiale. Bien que chacune des approches méthodologiques ait ses forces et faiblesses, la capacité de ces approches à quantifier l'effet des SD-PAMs sur le développement et les émissions ...
Projects implemented under the Clean Development Mechanism (COM) need to establish a baseline. The baselines is a projection of greenhouse gas emissions that would have occurred without the project. Establishing baselines that allow for sustainable development through COM projects is a key challenge, especially in poor communities. The COM rules explicitly allow for baselines that account for emissions "above current levels due to specific circumstances of host parties". This provision lends support to crediting of growth in demand for energy services where it is currently suppressed as a result of poverty and/or lack of infrastructure or suppressed demand. The question is whether the existing level of consumption is the baseline or the future expected level of consumption including "development" advances in provision of energy services and as a result of poverty alleviation is the baseline. Or should development be allowed to get dirty before it qualifies to become clean? The paper presents a baseline methodology that provides opportunities for suppressed demand to be predicted and counted.
As a global community, we need to understand better how a just transition can shift development paths to achieve net zero emissions and eliminate poverty. Our past development trajectories have led to high emissions, persistent inequality and a world that is fragmented across multiple contradictions. How can countries shift to development pathways that deliver zero poverty and zero carbon? In developing a theory of just transition, the article begins by reviewing a range of theoretical approaches from different traditions, building in particular on neo-Gramscian approaches. It applies and modifies core components of Gramsci’s approach, building a neo-Gramscian theory of just transitions around concepts of ideology, hegemony, change agents and fundamental conditions. The theory suggests how coalitions of change agents can come together behind a just transition. The coalition needs to gain broader support, establish a new cultural hegemony in support of just transitions and be able to transform the fundamental conditions of the 21st century. The article briefly considers how this better understanding can be applied to the practice of shifting development pathways. The penultimate section reflects on limitations, including that a fuller development of a theory of just transition will require application for detailed concrete examples and a community effort. Together, we might address the multiple challenges of our present conditions to transition to development that enables human flourishing and a healthy planet.
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