Fig. 1. An ensemble of a 2D convection flow field is analyzed using the proposed joint variance visualization techniques. From left to right: Individual variances of four of the data set runs show high variances around the heating cylinder. Brushing in the classification space allows for the identification of similar (green), dissimilar (red), and uncertain regions (blue and white). Together with a color mapped visualization of the ensemble domain and interactive pathline seeding, a complete analysis of transport is possible.Abstract-Sets of simulation runs based on parameter and model variation, so-called ensembles, are increasingly used to model physical behaviors whose parameter space is too large or complex to be explored automatically. Visualization plays a key role in conveying important properties in ensembles, such as the degree to which members of the ensemble agree or disagree in their output. For ensembles of time-varying vector fields, there are numerous challenges for providing an expressive comparative visualization, among which is the requirement to relate the effect of individual flow divergence to joint transport characteristics of the ensemble. Yet, techniques developed for scalar ensembles are of little use in this context, as the notion of transport induced by a vector field cannot be modeled using such tools. We develop a Lagrangian framework for the comparison of flow fields in an ensemble. Our techniques evaluate individual and joint transport variance and introduce a classification space that facilitates incorporation of these properties into a common ensemble visualization. Variances of Lagrangian neighborhoods are computed using pathline integration and Principal Components Analysis. This allows for an inclusion of uncertainty measurements into the visualization and analysis approach. Our results demonstrate the usefulness and expressiveness of the presented method on several practical examples.

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Abstract-Particle tracing in time-varying flow fields is traditionally performed by numerical integration of the underlying vector field. This procedure can become computationally expensive, especially in scattered, particle-based flow fields, which complicate interpolation due to the lack of an explicit neighborhood structure. If such a particle-based flow field allows for the identification of consecutive particle positions, an alternative approach to particle tracing can be employed: we substitute repeated numerical integration of vector data by geometric interpolation in the highly dynamic particle system as defined by the particle-based simulation. To allow for efficient and accurate location and interpolation of changing particle neighborhoods, we develop a modified k-d tree representation that is capable of creating a dynamic partitioning of even highly compressible data sets with strongly varying particle densities. With this representation we are able to efficiently perform pathline computation by identifying, tracking, and updating an enclosing, dynamic particle neighborhood as particles move over time. We investigate and evaluate the complexity, accuracy, and robustness of this interpolation-based alternative approach to trajectory generation in compressible and incompressible particle systems generated by simulation techniques such as Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH).

Visualization and analysis techniques play a key role in the discovery of relevant features in ensemble data. Trends, in the form of persisting commonalities or differences in time-varying ensemble datasets, constitute one of the most expressive feature types in ensemble analysis. We develop a flow-graph representation as the core of a system designed for the visual analysis of trends in time-varying ensembles. In our interactive analysis framework, this graph is linked to a representation of ensemble parameter-space and the ensemble itself. This facilitates a detailed examination of trends and their correlations to properties of input-space. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed trends analysis framework in several benchmark data sets, highlighting its capability to support goal-driven design of time-varying simulations.

Numerical ensemble forecasting is a powerful tool that drives many risk analysis efforts and decision making tasks. These ensembles are composed of individual simulations that each uniquely model a possible outcome for a common event of interest: e.g., the direction and force of a hurricane, or the path of travel and mortality rate of a pandemic. This paper presents a new visual strategy to help quantify and characterize a numerical ensemble's predictive uncertainty: i.e., the ability for ensemble constituents to accurately and consistently predict an event of interest based on ground truth observations. Our strategy employs a Bayesian framework to first construct a statistical aggregate from the ensemble. We extend the information obtained from the aggregate with a visualization strategy that characterizes predictive uncertainty at two levels: at a global level, which assesses the ensemble as a whole, as well as a local level, which examines each of the ensemble's constituents. Through this approach, modelers are able to better assess the predictive strengths and weaknesses of the ensemble as a whole, as well as individual models. We apply our method to two datasets to demonstrate its broad applicability.