The availability of data from electronic health records facilitates the development and evaluation of risk-prediction models, but estimation of prediction accuracy could be limited by outcome misclassification, which can arise if events are not captured. We evaluate the robustness of prediction accuracy summaries, obtained from receiver operating characteristic curves and risk-reclassification methods, if events are not captured (i.e., “false negatives”). We derive estimators for sensitivity and specificity if misclassification is independent of marker values. In simulation studies, we quantify the potential for bias in prediction accuracy summaries if misclassification depends on marker values. We compare the accuracy of alternative prognostic models for 30-day all-cause hospital readmission among 4548 patients discharged from the University of Pennsylvania Health System with a primary diagnosis of heart failure. Simulation studies indicate that if misclassification depends on marker values, then the estimated accuracy improvement is also biased, but the direction of the bias depends on the direction of the association between markers and the probability of misclassification. In our application, 29% of the 1143 readmitted patients were readmitted to a hospital elsewhere in Pennsylvania, which reduced prediction accuracy. Outcome misclassification can result in erroneous conclusions regarding the accuracy of risk-prediction models.
Introduction: Hereditary transthyretin (ATTRv; v for variant) amyloidosis, also known as hATTR amyloidosis, is a progressive and fatal disease associated with rapid deterioration of physical function and patients' quality of life (QOL). Vutrisiran, a subcutaneously administered RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutic that reduces hepatic production of transthyretin, was assessed in patients with ATTRv amyloidosis with polyneuropathy in the pivotal HELIOS-A study. Methods: The phase 3 open-label HELIOS-A study investigated the efficacy and safety of vutrisiran in patients with ATTRv amyloidosis with polyneuropathy, compared with an external placebo group from the APOLLO study of the RNAi therapeutic patisiran. Measures of QOL and physical function were assessed. Results: At month 18, vutrisiran improved Norfolk Quality of Life-Diabetic Neuropathy (Norfolk QOL-DN) total score (least squares mean difference [LSMD] in change from baseline [CFB]: -21.0; p = 1.84 9 10 -10
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