The correlations between oil-price movements and GDPjluctuations are investigatedfor the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany (West), France, the United Kingdom, and Norway. The responses to price increases and decreases are allowed to be asymmetric. Bivariate con-elations as well as partial wrrelations within a reduced-form macroeconomic model are considered. We correlations with oil-price increases are negative and signijcant for most countries, but positive for Norway, whose oil-producing sector is large relative to the economy as a whole. lbe correlations with oil-price decreases are mostly positive, but significant only for the United States and Canada. Most countries show evidence of asymmetric effects, with Norway again as an exception.
The welfare effects of introducing taxes on emissions of carbon dioxide is analysed within an empirical general equilibrium model of the Norwegian economy. A CO 2 tax regime where we aim at stabilising the CO, emissions at the 1990 emission level in 2020 is compared to a reference scenario without such taxes. In the simulations introduction of CO 2 taxes reduces gross domestic product, but increases net national real disposable income, private consumption and money metric utility. This difference in sign is due to a positive terms of trade effect, some of the CO2 taxes will be paid by foreigners through exports. The welfare effects differ from household to household depending on the composition of their total consumption. Poor households are less favourably affected than rich households, due to smaller budget shares for the rich households on consumer goods which imply relatively much CO 2 emissions.
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