The significant capex of photovoltaics manufacturing has made it difficult for new cell and module technologies to enter the solar power market. We show how technoeconomic modeling of cleantech products versus scale can be an important tool in assisting the commercialization of new energy technologies that often struggle to leave the lab with our analyses focusing on potential routes to market for perovskite photovoltaics.

Crystalline silicon comprises 90% of the global photovoltaics (PV) market and has sustained a nearly 30% cumulative annual growth rate, yet comprises less than 2% of electricity capacity. To sustain this growth trajectory, continued cost and capital expenditure (capex) reductions are needed. Thinning the silicon wafer well below the industry-standard 160 µm, in principle reduces both manufacturing cost and capex, and accelerates economicallysustainable expansion of PV manufacturing. In this Analysis piece, we explore two questions surrounding adoption of thin silicon wafers: (a) what are the market benefits of thin wafers? (b) what are the technological challenges to adopt thin wafers? In this Analysis, we re-evaluate the benefits and challenges of thin Si for current and future PV modules using a comprehensive technoeconomic framework that couples device simulation, bottom-up cost modeling, and a sustainable cash-flow growth model. When adopting an advanced technology concept that features sufficiently good surface passivation, the same high efficiencies are achievable for both 50-µm wafers and 160-µm ones. We then quantify the economic benefits for thin Si wafers in terms of poly-Si-to-module manufacturing capex, module cost, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility PV systems. Particularly, LCOE favors thinner wafers for all investigated device architectures, and can potentially be reduced by more than 5% from the value of 160-µm wafers. With further improvements in module efficiency, an advanced device concept with 50-µm wafers could potentially reduce manufacturing capex by 48%, module cost by 28%, and LCOE by 24%. Furthermore, we apply a sustainable growth model to investigate PV deployment scenarios in 2030. It is found that the state-of-theart industry concept could not achieve the climate targets even with very aggressive financial scenarios, therefore the capex reduction benefit of thin wafers is advantageous to facilitate faster PV adoption. Lastly, we discuss the remaining technological challenges and areas for innovation to enable high-yield manufacturing of high-efficiency PV modules with thin Si wafers. Broader ContextClimate change is among the greatest challenges facing humankind today. Given the urgency of transitioning to a carbon-neutral energy system, we need to accelerate the deployment of existing renewable technology in the near term. With rapid technological progress and cost decline, silicon photovoltaics (PV) modules is a proven technology to be deployed to a multi-terawatt scale by 2030. Despite the high growth rate in the past decade, the capital-intense nature of silicon PV manufacturing hinders the sustainable growth of the industry. Today, the most significant contribution to capital expenditure (capex) of PV module fabrication still comes from silicon wafer itself. Reducing wafer thickness would have a proportionate effect on wafer and poly capex; however, wafer thickness reduction has been much slower than anticipated. This study revisits the concept of wafer thinning...

Space conditioning, and cooling in particular, is a key factor in human productivity and well-being across the globe. During the 21 st century, global cooling demand is expected to grow significantly due to the increase in wealth and population in sunny nations across the globe and the advance of global warming. The same locations that see high demand for cooling are also ideal for electricity generation via photovoltaics (PV). Despite the apparent synergy between cooling demand and PV generation, the potential of the cooling sector to sustain PV generation has not been assessed on a global scale. Here, we perform a global assessment of increased PV electricity adoption enabled by the residential cooling sector during the 21 st century. Already today, utilizing PV production for cooling could facilitate an additional installed PV capacity of approximately 540 GW, more than the global PV capacity of today. Using established scenarios of population and income growth, as well as accounting for future global warming, we further project that the global residential cooling sector could sustain an added PV capacity between 20-200 GW each year for most of the 21 st century, on par with the current global manufacturing capacity of 100 GW. Furthermore, we find that without storage, PV could directly power approximately 50% of cooling demand, and that this fraction is set to increase from 49% to 56% during the 21st century, as cooling demand grows in locations where PV and cooling have a higher synergy. With this geographic shift in demand, the potential of distributed storage also grows. We simulate that with a 1 m 3 water-based latent thermal storage per household, the fraction of cooling demand met with PV would increase from 55% to 70% during the century. These results show that the synergy between cooling and PV is notable and could significantly accelerate the growth of the global PV industry.

Black silicon (b-Si) is currently being adopted by several fields of technology, and its potential has already been demonstrated in various applications. We show here that the increased surface area of b-Si, which has generally been considered as a drawback e.g. in applications that require efficient surface passivation, can be used as an advantage: it enhances gettering of deleterious metal impurities. We demonstrate experimentally that interstitial iron concentration in intentionally contaminated silicon wafers reduces from 1.7 × 1013 cm−3 to less than 1010 cm−3 via b-Si gettering coupled with phosphorus diffusion from a POCl3 source. Simultaneously, the minority carrier lifetime increases from less than 2 μs of a contaminated wafer to more than 1.5 ms. A series of different low temperature anneals suggests segregation into the phosphorus-doped layer to be the main gettering mechanism, a notion which paves the way of adopting these results into predictive process simulators. This conclusion is supported by simulations which show that the b-Si needles are entirely heavily-doped with phosphorus after a typical POCl3 diffusion process, promoting iron segregation. Potential benefits of enhanced gettering by b-Si include the possibility to use lower quality silicon in high-efficiency photovoltaic devices.

Industrial Czochralski silicon (Cz-Si) photovoltaic (PV) efficiencies have routinely reached >20% with the passivated emitter rear cell (PERC) design. Nanostructuring silicon (black-Si) by dry-etching decreases surface reflectance, allows diamond saw wafering, enhances metal gettering, and may prevent power conversion efficiency degradation under light exposure. Black-Si allows a potential for >20% PERC cells using cheaper multicrystalline silicon (mc-Si) materials, although dry-etching is widely considered too expensive for industrial application. This study analyzes this economic potential by comparing costs of standard texturized Cz-Si and black mc-Si PERC cells. Manufacturing sequences are divided into steps, and costs per unit power are individually calculated for all different steps. Baseline costs for each step are calculated and a sensitivity analysis run for a theoretical 1 GW/year manufacturing plant, combining data from literature and industry. The results show an increase in the overall cell processing costs between 15.8% and 25.1% due to the combination of black-Si etching and passivation by double-sided atomic layer deposition. Despite this increase, the cost per unit power of the overall PERC cell drops by 10.8%. This is a significant cost saving and thus energy policies are reviewed to overcome challenges to accelerating deployment of black mc-Si PERC across the PV industry.

An important aspect of Process Simulators for photovoltaics is prediction of defect evolution during device fabrication. Over the last twenty years, these tools have accelerated process optimization, and several Process Simulators for iron, a ubiquitous and deleterious impurity in silicon, have been developed. The diversity of these tools can make it difficult to build intuition about the physics governing iron behavior during processing. Thus, in one unified software environment and using self-consistent terminology, we combine and describe three of these Simulators. We vary structural defect distribution and iron precipitation equations to create eight distinct Models, which we then use to simulate different stages of processing. We find that the structural defect distribution influences the final interstitial iron concentration ([Fe,]) more strongly than the iron precipitation equations. We identify two regimes of iron behavior: (1) diffusivity-limited, in which iron evolution is kinetic ally limited and bulk [Fe,] predictions can vary by an order of magnitude or more, and (2) solubility-limited, in which iron evolution is near thermodynamic equilibrium and the Models yield similar results. This rigorous analysis provides new intuition that can inform Process Simulation, material, and process development, and it enables scientists and engineers to choose an appropriate level of Model complexity based on wafer type and quality, processing conditions, and available computation time.

Light and elevated‐temperature induced degradation (LeTID) is currently a severe issue in passivated emitter and rear cells (PERC). In this work, we study the impact of surface texture, especially a black silicon (b‐Si) nanostructure, on LeTID in industrial p‐type mc‐Si PERC. Our results show that during standard LeTID conditions the b‐Si cells with atomic‐layer‐deposited aluminum oxide (AlOx) front surface passivation show no degradation despite the presence of a hydrogen‐rich AlOx/SiNx passivation stack on the rear. Furthermore, b‐Si solar cells passivated with silicon nitride (SiNx) on the front lose only 1.5%rel of their initial power conversion efficiency, while the acidic‐textured equivalents degrade by nearly 4%rel under the same conditions. Correspondingly, clear degradation is visible in the internal quantum efficiency (IQE) of the acidic‐textured cells, especially in the ~850 to 1100‐nm wavelength range confirming that the degradation occurs in the bulk, while the IQE remains nearly unaffected in the b‐Si cells. The observations are supported by spatially resolved photoluminescence (PL) maps, which show a clear contrast in the degradation behavior of b‐Si and acidic‐textured cells, especially in the case of SiNx front surface passivation. The PL maps also suggest that the magnitude of LeTID scales with surface area of the texture, rather than wafer thickness that was recently reported, although the b‐Si cells are slightly thinner (140 vs 165 μm). The results indicate that b‐Si has a positive impact on LeTID, and hence, benefits provided by b‐Si are not limited only to the excellent optical properties, as commonly understood.

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