The proliferation of countries and regions with 100% clean or renewable energy targets necessitates an analysis to determine the number of generating units and storage needed to meet real‐time electricity demand on the electric grid. The coastal areas of New England have the capacity to produce a large percentage of the region's energy needs with offshore wind turbines. Here we model offshore wind turbine power production data using MERRA‐2 reanalysis and lidar wind speed data sets. We compare this power production to the New England hourly grid demand over the course of one year. 2,000 10 MW offshore wind turbines could satisfy New England's grid demand for about 37% of the year. When combined with 55 GWh of storage, 2,000 turbines could satisfy grid demand for about 72% of the year.
Abstract. Hub-height turbulence is essential for a variety of wind energy applications, ranging from wind plant siting to wind turbine control strategies. Because deploying hub-height meteorological towers can be a challenge, alternative ways to estimate hub-height turbulence are desired. In this paper, we assess to what degree hub-height turbulence can be estimated via other hub-height variables or ground-level atmospheric measurements in complex terrain, using observations from three meteorological towers at the Perdigão and WFIP2 field campaigns. We find a large variability across the three considered towers when trying to model hub-height turbulence intensity (TI) and turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) from hub-height or near-surface measurements of either wind speed, TI, or TKE. Moreover, we find that based on the characteristics of the specific site, atmospheric stability and upwind fetch either determine a significant variability in hub-height turbulence or are not a main driver of the variability in hub-height TI and TKE. Our results highlight how hub-height turbulence is simultaneously sensitive to numerous different factors, so that no simple and universal relationship can be determined to vertically extrapolate turbulence from near-surface measurements, or model it from other hub-height variables when considering univariate relationships. We suggest that a multivariate approach should instead be considered, possibly leveraging the capabilities of machine learning nonlinear algorithms.
Hub-height turbulence intensity is essential for a variety of wind energy applications. However, simulating it is a challenging task. Simple analytical models have been proposed in the literature, but they all come with significant limitations. Even state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model, currently struggle to predict hub-height turbulence intensity. Here, we propose a machine-learning-based approach to predict hub-height turbulence intensity from other hub-height and ground-level atmospheric measurements, using observations from the Perdigão field campaign and the Southern Great Plains atmospheric observatory. We consider a random forest regression model, which we validate first at the site used for training and then under a more robust round-robin approach, and compare its performance to a multivariate linear regression. The random forest successfully outperforms the linear regression in modeling hub-height turbulence intensity, with a normalized root-mean-square error as low as 0.014 when using 30-minute average data. In order to achieve such low root-mean-square error values, the knowledge of hub-height turbulence kinetic energy (which can instead be modeled in the Weather Research and Forecasting model) is needed. Interestingly, we find that the performance of the random forest generalizes well when considering a round-robin validation (i.e., when the algorithm is trained at one site such as Perdigão or Southern Great Plains) and then applied to model hub-height turbulence intensity at the other location.
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