It is widely projected that under future climate scenarios the economic importance of Arctic Ocean fish stocks will increase. The Arctic Ocean is especially vulnerable to ocean acidification and already experiences low pH levels not projected to occur on a global scale until 2100. This paper outlines how ocean acidification must be considered with other potential stressors to accurately predict movement of fish stocks toward, and within, the Arctic and to inform future fish stock management strategies. First, we review the literature on ocean acidification impacts on fish, next we identify the main obstacles that currently preclude ocean acidification from Arctic fish stock projections. Finally, we provide a roadmap to describe how satellite observations can be used to address these gaps: improve knowledge, inform experimental studies, provide regional assessments of vulnerabilities, and implement appropriate management strategies. This roadmap sets out three inter-linked research priorities: (1) Establish organisms and ecosystem physiochemical baselines by increasing the coverage of Arctic physicochemical observations in both space and time; (2) Understand the variability of all stressors in space and time; (3) Map life histories and fish stocks against satellite-derived observations of stressors.
Abstract. Large rivers play an important role in transferring water and all of its constituents, including carbon in its various forms, from the land to the ocean, but the seasonal and inter-annual variations in these riverine flows remain unclear. Satellite Earth observation datasets and reanalysis products can now be used to observe synoptic-scale spatial and temporal variations in the carbonate system within large river outflows. Here, we present the University of Exeter (UNEXE) Satellite Oceanographic Datasets for Acidification (OceanSODA) dataset (OceanSODA-UNEXE) time series, a dataset of the full carbonate system in the surface water outflows of the Amazon (2010–2020) and Congo (2002–2016) rivers. Optimal empirical approaches were used to generate gridded total alkalinity (TA) and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) fields in the outflow regions. These combinations were determined by equitably evaluating all combinations of algorithms and inputs against a reference matchup database of in situ observations. Gridded TA and DIC along with gridded temperature and salinity data enable the calculation of the full carbonate system in the surface ocean (which includes pH and the partial pressure of carbon dioxide, pCO2). The algorithm evaluation constitutes a Type-A uncertainty evaluation for TA and DIC, in which model, input and sampling uncertainties are considered. Total combined uncertainties for TA and DIC were propagated through the carbonate system calculation, allowing all variables to be provided with an associated uncertainty estimate. In the Amazon outflow, the total combined uncertainty for TA was 36 µmol kg−1 (weighted root-mean-squared difference, RMSD, of 35 µmol kg−1 and weighted bias of 8 µmol kg−1 for n = 82), whereas it was 44 µmol kg−1 for DIC (weighted RMSD of 44 µmol kg−1 and weighted bias of −6 µmol kg−1 for n = 70). The spatially averaged propagated combined uncertainties for the pCO2 and pH were 85 µatm and 0.08, respectively, where the pH uncertainty was relative to an average pH of 8.19. In the Congo outflow, the combined uncertainty for TA was identified as 29 µmol kg−1 (weighted RMSD of 28 µmol kg−1 and weighted bias of 6 µmol kg−1 for n = 102), whereas it was 40 µmol kg−1 for DIC (weighted RMSD of 37 µmol kg−1 and weighted bias of −16 µmol kg−1 for n = 77). The spatially averaged propagated combined uncertainties for pCO2 and pH were 74 µatm and 0.08, respectively, where the pH uncertainty was relative to an average pH of 8.21. The combined uncertainties in TA and DIC in the Amazon and Congo outflows are lower than the natural variability within their respective regions, allowing the time-varying regional variability to be evaluated. Potential uses of these data would be the assessment of the spatial and temporal flow of carbon from the Amazon and Congo rivers into the Atlantic and the assessment of the riverine-driven carbonate system variations experienced by tropical reefs within the outflow regions. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.946888 (Sims et al., 2023).
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