Excessive precipitation over the southeastern tropical Pacific is a major common bias that persists through generations of global climate models. While recent studies suggest an overly warm Southern Ocean as the cause, models disagree on the quantitative importance of this remote mechanism in light of ocean circulation feedback. Here, using a multimodel experiment in which the Southern Ocean is radiatively cooled, we show a teleconnection from the Southern Ocean to the tropical Pacific that is mediated by a shortwave subtropical cloud feedback. Cooling the Southern Ocean preferentially cools the southeastern tropical Pacific, thereby shifting the eastern tropical Pacific rainbelt northward with the reduced precipitation bias. Regional cloud locking experiments confirm that the teleconnection efficiency depends on subtropical stratocumulus cloud feedback. This subtropical cloud feedback is too weak in most climate models, suggesting that teleconnections from the Southern Ocean to the tropical Pacific are stronger than widely thought.

This study explores the dependence of the climate response on the altitude of black carbon in the northern subtropics by employing an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to an aquaplanet mixed layer ocean, with a focus on the pattern changes in the temperature, hydrological cycle, and large-scale circulation. Black carbon added below or within the subtropical low-level clouds tends to suppress convection, which reduces the low cloud amount, resulting in a positive cloud radiative forcing. The warmer northern subtropics then induce a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and a poleward expansion of the descending branch of the northern Hadley cell. As the black carbon-induced local warming is amplified by clouds and is advected by the anomalous Hadley circulation, the entire globe gets warmer. In contrast, black carbon added near the surface increases the buoyancy of air parcels to enhance convection, leading to an increase in the subtropical low cloud amount and a negative cloud radiative forcing. The temperature increase remains local to where black carbon is added and elsewhere decreases, so that the ITCZ is shifted southward and the descending branch of the northern Hadley cell contracts equatorward. Consistent with previous studies, the authors demonstrate that the climate response to black carbon is highly sensitive to the vertical distribution of black carbon relative to clouds; hence, models have to accurately compute the vertical transport of black carbon to enhance their skill in simulating the climatic effects of black carbon.

Most state-of-art models project a reduced equatorial Pacific east-west temperature gradient and a weakened Walker circulation under global warming. However, the causes of this robust projection remain elusive. Here, we devise a series of slab ocean model experiments to diagnostically decompose the global warming response into the contributions from the direct carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) forcing, sea ice changes, and regional ocean heat uptake. The CO 2 forcing dominates the Walker circulation slowdown through enhancing the tropical tropospheric stability. Antarctic sea ice changes and local ocean heat release are the dominant drivers for reduced zonal temperature gradient over the equatorial Pacific, while the Southern Ocean heat uptake opposes this change. Corroborating our model experiments, multimodel analysis shows that the models with greater Southern Ocean heat uptake exhibit less reduction in the temperature gradient and less weakening of the Walker circulation. Therefore, constraining the tropical Pacific projection requires a better insight into Southern Ocean processes.

A significant decline of precipitation over the Southwestern United States (SWUS) has been observed since 1980. To investigate the causes behind this decline, we determine the relative contributions of internal decadal variability in Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and anthropogenic forcings. Applying a low frequency component analysis (LFCA) and multivariate linear regressions to observations and a set of counterfactual climate model experiments with CESM2, we find up to 22% of the observed SWUS precipitation trend can potentially be attributed to anthropogenic aerosol (AA) induced SST changes. Other radiative forcings counteract this influence, leading to a relatively weak net forced response in SWUS precipitation in CESM2. Our results imply that the near-future emission trajectories of these forcings, in particular aerosols, are important for making projections of SWUS precipitation.