Background In this study, we aimed to evaluate the effects of tocilizumab in adult patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 with both hypoxia and systemic inflammation. Methods This randomised, controlled, open-label, platform trial (Randomised Evaluation of COVID-19 Therapy [RECOVERY]), is assessing several possible treatments in patients hospitalised with COVID-19 in the UK. Those trial participants with hypoxia (oxygen saturation <92% on air or requiring oxygen therapy) and evidence of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein ≥75 mg/L) were eligible for random assignment in a 1:1 ratio to usual standard of care alone versus usual standard of care plus tocilizumab at a dose of 400 mg–800 mg (depending on weight) given intravenously. A second dose could be given 12–24 h later if the patient's condition had not improved. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The trial is registered with ISRCTN (50189673) and ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT04381936 ). Findings Between April 23, 2020, and Jan 24, 2021, 4116 adults of 21 550 patients enrolled into the RECOVERY trial were included in the assessment of tocilizumab, including 3385 (82%) patients receiving systemic corticosteroids. Overall, 621 (31%) of the 2022 patients allocated tocilizumab and 729 (35%) of the 2094 patients allocated to usual care died within 28 days (rate ratio 0·85; 95% CI 0·76–0·94; p=0·0028). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients, including those receiving systemic corticosteroids. Patients allocated to tocilizumab were more likely to be discharged from hospital within 28 days (57% vs 50%; rate ratio 1·22; 1·12–1·33; p<0·0001). Among those not receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at baseline, patients allocated tocilizumab were less likely to reach the composite endpoint of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (35% vs 42%; risk ratio 0·84; 95% CI 0·77–0·92; p<0·0001). Interpretation In hospitalised COVID-19 patients with hypoxia and systemic inflammation, tocilizumab improved survival and other clinical outcomes. These benefits were seen regardless of the amount of respiratory support and were additional to the benefits of systemic corticosteroids. Funding UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council) and National Institute of Health Research.

The global health community has set itself the task of eliminating tuberculosis (TB) as a public health problem by 2050. Although progress has been made in global TB control, the current decline in incidence of 2% yr−1 is far from the rate needed to achieve this. If we are to succeed in this endeavour, new strategies to reduce the reservoir of latently infected persons (from which new cases arise) would be advantageous. However, ascertainment of the extent and risk posed by this group is poor. The current diagnostics tests (tuberculin skin test and interferon-gamma release assays) poorly predict who will develop active disease and the therapeutic options available are not optimal for the scale of the intervention that may be required. In this article, we outline a basis for our current understanding of latent TB and highlight areas where innovation leading to development of novel diagnostic tests, drug regimens and vaccines may assist progress. We argue that the pool of individuals at high risk of progression may be significantly smaller than the 2.33 billion thought to be immune sensitized by Mycobacterium tuberculosis and that identifying and targeting this group will be an important strategy in the road to elimination.

Tuberculosis is classically divided into states of latent infection and active disease. Using combined positron emission and computed tomography in 35 asymptomatic, antiretroviral therapy naïve, HIV-1 infected adults with latent tuberculosis, we identified ten individuals with pulmonary abnormalities suggestive of subclinical, active disease who were significantly more likely to progress to clinical disease. Our findings challenge the conventional two-state paradigm and may aid future identification of biomarkers predictive of progression.

Background Multiple blood transcriptional signatures have been proposed for identification of active and incipient tuberculosis. We aimed to compare the performance of systematically identified candidate signatures for incipient tuberculosis and to benchmark these against WHO targets. MethodsWe did a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis. We searched Medline and Embase for candidate whole blood mRNA signatures discovered with the primary objective of diagnosis of active or incipient tuberculosis, compared with controls who were healthy or had latent tuberculosis infection. We tested the performance of eligible signatures in whole blood transcriptomic datasets, in which sampling before tuberculosis diagnosis was done and time to disease was available. Culture-confirmed and clinically or radiologically diagnosed pulmonary or extrapulmonary tuberculosis cases were included. Non-progressor (individuals who remained tuberculosis-free during follow-up) samples with less than 6 months of follow-up from the date of sample collection were excluded, as were participants with prevalent tuberculosis and those who received preventive therapy. Scores were calculated for candidate signatures for each participant in the pooled dataset. Receiver operating characteristic curves, sensitivities, and specificities were examined using prespecified intervals to tuberculosis (<3 months, <6 months, <1 year, and <2 years) from sample collection. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42019135618. ResultsWe tested 17 candidate mRNA signatures in a pooled dataset from four eligible studies comprising 1126 samples. This dataset included 183 samples from 127 incipient tuberculosis cases in South Africa, Ethiopia, The Gambia, and the UK. Eight signatures (comprising 1-25 transcripts) that predominantly reflect interferon and tumour necrosis factor-inducible gene expression, had equivalent diagnostic accuracy for incipient tuberculosis over a 2-year period with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranging from 0•70 (95% CI 0•64-0•76) to 0•77 (0•71-0•82). The sensitivity of all eight signatures declined with increasing disease-free time interval. Using a threshold derived from two SDs above the mean of uninfected controls to prioritise specificity and positive-predictive value, the eight signatures achieved sensitivities of 24•7-39•9% over 24 months and of 47•1-81•0% over 3 months, with corresponding specificities of more than 90%. Based on pre-test probability of 2%, the eight signatures achieved positive-predictive values ranging from 6•8-9•4% over 24 months and 11•2-14•4% over 3 months. When using biomarker thresholds maximising sensitivity and specificity with equal weighting to both, no signature met the minimum WHO target product profile parameters for incipient tuberculosis biomarkers over a 2-year period.Interpretation Blood transcriptional biomarkers reflect short-term risk of tuberculosis and only exceed WHO benchmarks if applied to 3-6-month intervals. Serial testing among caref...

While it is known that a substantial proportion of individuals with tuberculosis disease (TB) present subclinically, usually defined as bacteriologically-confirmed but negative on symptom screening, considerable knowledge gaps remain. Our aim was to review data from TB prevalence population surveys and generate a consistent definition and framework for subclinical TB, thus enabling an estimate of the proportion of TB that is subclinical, explore associations with overall burden and programme indicators, and performance of screening strategies. We extracted data from all publicly available prevalence surveys conducted since 1990. Between 36.1–79.7% (median 50.4%) of prevalent bacteriologically-confirmed TB was subclinical. No association was found between prevalence of subclinical and all bacteriologically confirmed TB, patient diagnostic rate or country-level HIV prevalence (p-values, 0.32, 0.4, 0.34, respectively). Chest X-ray detected 89% (range 73–98%) of bacteriologically-confirmed TB disease, highlighting the potential of optimizing current TB case-finding policies.

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SummaryBackgroundHIV-1 infection is associated with increased risk of tuberculosis and a safe and effective vaccine would assist control measures. We assessed the safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy of a candidate tuberculosis vaccine, modified vaccinia virus Ankara expressing antigen 85A (MVA85A), in adults infected with HIV-1.MethodsWe did a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial of MVA85A in adults infected with HIV-1, at two clinical sites, in Cape Town, South Africa and Dakar, Senegal. Eligible participants were aged 18–50 years, had no evidence of active tuberculosis, and had baseline CD4 counts greater than 350 cells per μL if they had never received antiretroviral therapy or greater than 300 cells per μL (and with undetectable viral load before randomisation) if they were receiving antiretroviral therapy; participants with latent tuberculosis infection were eligible if they had completed at least 5 months of isoniazid preventive therapy, unless they had completed treatment for tuberculosis disease within 3 years before randomisation. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) in blocks of four by randomly generated sequence to receive two intradermal injections of either MVA85A or placebo. Randomisation was stratified by antiretroviral therapy status and study site. Participants, nurses, investigators, and laboratory staff were masked to group allocation. The second (booster) injection of MVA85A or placebo was given 6–12 months after the first vaccination. The primary study outcome was safety in all vaccinated participants (the safety analysis population). Safety was assessed throughout the trial as defined in the protocol. Secondary outcomes were immunogenicity and vaccine efficacy against Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and disease, assessed in the per-protocol population. Immunogenicity was assessed in a subset of participants at day 7 and day 28 after the first and second vaccination, and M tuberculosis infection and disease were assessed at the end of the study. The trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01151189.FindingsBetween Aug 4, 2011, and April 24, 2013, 650 participants were enrolled and randomly assigned; 649 were included in the safety analysis (324 in the MVA85A group and 325 in the placebo group) and 645 in the per-protocol analysis (320 and 325). 513 (71%) participants had CD4 counts greater than 300 cells per μL and were receiving antiretroviral therapy; 136 (21%) had CD4 counts above 350 cells per μL and had never received antiretroviral therapy. 277 (43%) had received isoniazid prophylaxis before enrolment. Solicited adverse events were more frequent in participants who received MVA85A (288 [89%]) than in those given placebo (235 [72%]). 34 serious adverse events were reported, 17 (5%) in each group. MVA85A induced a significant increase in antigen 85A-specific T-cell response, which peaked 7 days after both vaccinations and was primarily monofunctional. The number of participants with negative QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube findings at baseline ...

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