This paper discusses Zambia’s 2021 election which was held in a context of democratic backsliding and poor economic performance. The election resulted in Zambia’s third alternation of power between political parties since the democratic wave of the 1990s. The ruling Patriotic Front (PF) used its incumbent advantages to control institutions that were crucial for promoting democracy and ensuring a credible election. The election was also characterised by political violence which limited the ability for the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) to mobilise freely. Further, an Afrobarometer survey conducted in December 2020 showed that half of all citizens surveyed were unwilling to declare who they would vote for, thereby suppressing the extent of UPND’s support. Yet, the UPND won 59% in the presidential election and won the most parliamentary seats in an election that had one of the highest voter-turnouts since the advent of Zambia’s multi-party democracy. This paper argues that there was a ‘silent revolution’ in Zambia that resulted in the defeat of the PF. It also shows that Zambian citizens have not been complacent in the face of democratic backsliding.
Motivation: International donors piloted social cash transfers in Africa in the 2000s. Successful pilots need to be expanded, to be nationally owned, and to be funded by regular budgets. How this may be done depends on domestic politics, which vary by country. Donors need to engage with local politics if they wish their pilots to be institutionalized. Malawi is one such case, where a change of president opened a window for policy reforms. Purpose: Why were donors, over six years, unable to persuade Bingu wa Mutharika's government of Malawi to adopt social cash transfers; but succeeded with Joyce Banda's administration within two months of her being in office? Methods and approach: I adopt John Kingdon's multiple streams framework, originally developed in 1984 to explain how agenda are set in the USA. He observed separate streams of problems, potential policy responses, and politics which may converge at critical juncturespolicy windows-when new policies may be adopted. I interviewed 25 policy-makers in Malawi, including political leaders, donor staff, government civil servants, and civil society officers to trace policy-making for social cash transfers. Findings: Malawi can be seen to have a super-presidential system, in which presidents and their closest allies overwhelmingly set the agenda, aligned to their ideological views and political interests. When presidents change, a policy window opens. Mutharika prioritized increasing the maize harvest and stabilizing the economy. The input subsidies used to achieve the former, he saw as "home-grown" solutions, were preferred to donor orthodoxies. Social protection was for him another donor orthodoxy. It did not align with his beliefs and conflicted with his interests in food security. When Mutharika died suddenly in 2012, Vice-President Banda took over. Her experience was different to that of her predecessor: she had worked with civil society, was acutely aware of poverty, and had good relations with external non-governmental organizations and donors. She saw priorities in rising vulnerability and exclusion, she favoured safety nets, and was anxious to gain support for her administration. Social protection came rapidly into favour, pilots were expanded into a national programme. Policy implications: Political leaders support programmes that benefit both development and political survival. Understanding how a brief
Regular elections are now the norm across most of sub-Saharan Africa, but repeated elections have not guaranteed the consolidation of democracy. Election legitimacy is crucial for democratisation. When losing political actors and their supporters are not satisfied with the electoral process, there is potential for growing political tensions. Fraudulent or controversial elections fail to confer legitimacy on the winners, and undermine the integrity of elections and democracy. Drawing on Afrobarometer data and media accounts, this paper focuses on the most recent elections held in three southern African countries: Zambia, Zimbabwe and Malawi. We show that when citizens believe that elections were not free and fair, there is a decline in their satisfaction with democracy and the trust they have in institutions such as electoral commissions and courts of law. The absence of political reforms to address disputed election outcomes increases the likelihood that future elections will not be contested fairly. This sets countries on a path of democratic decline rather than consolidation.
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