Another social science looks at itself Experimental economists have joined the reproducibility discussion by replicating selected published experiments from two top-tier journals in economics. Camerer et al. found that two-thirds of the 18 studies examined yielded replicable estimates of effect size and direction. This proportion is somewhat lower than unaffiliated experts were willing to bet in an associated prediction market, but roughly in line with expectations from sample sizes and P values. Science , this issue p. 1433

Here we provide further details on the replications, the estimation of standardized effect sizes and complementary replicability indicators, the implementation of the prediction markets and surveys, the comparison of prediction market beliefs, survey beliefs, and replication outcomes, the comparison of reproducibility indicators to experimental economics and the psychological sciences, and additional results and data for the individual studies and markets. The code used for the estimation of replication power, standardized effect sizes, all complementary replication indicators, and all results is posted at OSF (https://osf.io/pfdyw/). Replications Inclusion criteriaWe replicated 21 experimental studies in the social sciences published between 2010 and 2015 in Nature and Science. We included all studies that fulfilled our inclusion criteria for:(i) the journal and time period, (ii) the type of experiment, (iii) the subjects included in the experiment, (iv) the equipment and materials needed to implement the experiment, and (v) the results reported in the experiment. We did not exclude studies that had already been subject to a replication, as this could affect the representativity of the included studies. We define and discuss the five inclusion criteria below. Journal and time period: We included experimental studies published in Nature andScience between 2010 and 2015. The reason for focusing on these two journals is that they are typically considered the two most prestigious general science journals. Articles published in these journals are considered exciting, innovative, and important, which is also reflected in their high impact factors. * Number of observations; number of individuals provided in parenthesis. † Replicated; significant effect (p < 0.05) in the same direction as in original study. ‡ Statistical power to detect 50% of the original effect size r. § Relative standardized effect size. * Belief about the probability of replicating in stage 1 (90% power to detect 75% of the original effect size).† Predicted added probability of replicating in stage 2 (90% power to detect 50% of the original effect size) compared to stage 1. * Mean number of tokens (points) invested per transaction. † Mean number of shares bought or sold per transaction.

In rodents, metformin slows intestinal glucose absorption, potentially increasing exposure of the distal gut to glucose to enhance postprandial glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) secretion. We evaluated the effects of metformin on serum 3-O-methylglucose (3-OMG; a marker of glucose absorption) and plasma total GLP-1 concentrations during a standardized intraduodenal infusion of glucose and 3-OMG in patients with type 2 diabetes. A total of 12 patients, treated with metformin 850 mg twice daily or placebo for 7 days each in a double-blind, randomized, crossover design (14 days' washout between treatments), were evaluated on days 5 or 8 of each treatment (6 subjects each). On each study day, 30 minutes after ingesting 850 mg metformin or placebo, patients received an infusion of glucose (60 g + 5 g 3-OMG, dissolved in water to 240 mL) via an intraduodenal catheter over the course of 120 minutes. Compared with placebo, metformin was associated with lower serum 3-OMG ( P < .001) and higher plasma total GLP-1 ( P = .003) concentrations. The increment in plasma GLP-1 after metformin vs placebo was related to the reduction in serum 3-OMG concentrations ( P = .019). Accordingly, metformin inhibits small intestinal glucose absorption, which may contribute to augmented GLP-1 secretion in type 2 diabetes.

Acetaminophen (APAP) is used drugs worldwide for treating pain and fever. However, APAP overdose is the principal cause of acute liver failure in Western countries. Salvianolic acid B (SalB), a major water-soluble compound extracted from Radix Salvia miltiorrhiza, has well-known antioxidant and anti-inflammatory actions. We aimed to evaluate the ability of SalB to protect against APAP-induced acute hepatotoxicity by inducing nuclear factor-erythroid-2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) expression. SalB pretreatment ameliorated acute liver injury caused by APAP, as indicated by blood aspartate transaminase levels and histological findings. Moreover, SalB pretreatment increased the expression of Nrf2, Heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) and glutamate-l-cysteine ligase catalytic subunit (GCLC). Furthermore, the HO-1 inhibitor zinc protoporphyrin and the GCLC inhibitor buthionine sulfoximine reversed the protective effect of SalB. Additionally, siRNA-mediated depletion of Nrf2 reduced the induction of HO-1 and GCLC by SalB, and SalB pretreatment activated the phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase (PI3K) and protein kinase C (PKC) signaling pathways. Both inhibitors (PI3K and PKC) blocked the protective effect of SalB against APAP-induced cell death, abolishing the SalB-induced Nrf2 activation and decreasing HO-1 and GCLC expression. These results indicated that SalB induces Nrf2, HO-1 and GCLC expression via activation of the PI3K and PKC pathways, thereby protecting against APAP-induced liver injury.

Background The terrifying undiagnosed rate and high prevalence of diabetes have become a public emergency. A high efficiency and cost-effective early recognition method is urgently needed. We aimed to generate innovative, user-friendly nomograms that can be applied for diabetes screening in different ethnic groups in China using the non-lab or noninvasive semi-lab data. Methods This multicenter, multi-ethnic, population-based, cross-sectional study was conducted in eight sites in China by enrolling subjects aged 20–70. Sociodemographic and anthropometric characteristics were collected. Blood and urine samples were obtained 2 h following a standard 75 g glucose solution. In the final analysis, 10,794 participants were included and randomized into model development (n = 8096) and model validation (n = 2698) group with a ratio of 3:1. Nomograms were developed by the stepwise binary logistic regression. The nomograms were validated internally by a bootstrap sampling method in the model development set and externally in the model validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the screening performance of the nomograms. Decision curve analysis was applied to calculate the net benefit of the screening model. Results The overall prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 9.8% (1059/10794) according to ADA criteria. The non-lab model revealed that gender, age, body mass index, waist circumference, hypertension, ethnicities, vegetable daily consumption and family history of diabetes were independent risk factors for diabetes. By adding 2 h post meal glycosuria qualitative to the non-lab model, the semi-lab model showed an improved Akaike information criterion (AIC: 4506 to 3580). The AUC of the semi-lab model was statistically larger than the non-lab model (0.868 vs 0.763, P < 0.001). The optimal cutoff probability in semi-lab and non-lab nomograms were 0.088 and 0.098, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity were 76.3% and 81.6%, respectively in semi-lab nomogram, and 72.1% and 67.3% in non-lab nomogram at the optimal cut off point. The decision curve analysis also revealed a bigger decrease of avoidable OGTT test (52 per 100 subjects) in the semi-lab model compared to the non-lab model (36 per 100 subjects) and the existed New Chinese Diabetes Risk Score (NCDRS, 35 per 100 subjects). Conclusion The non-lab and semi-lab nomograms appear to be reliable tools for diabetes screening, especially in developing countries. However, the semi-lab model outperformed the non-lab model and NCDRS prediction systems and might be worth being adopted as decision support in diabetes screening in China.

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Vildagliptin reduces BP and increases HR, whereas metformin increases HR without affecting BP during ID glucose infusion in type 2 diabetes. These distinct cardiovascular profiles during enteral nutrient exposure may have implications for postprandial hypotension.