Purpose With the growth of unstructured data, opportunities to generate insights into supply chain risks in low cost countries (LCCs) are emerging. Sourcing risk has primarily focused on short-term mitigation. This paper aims to offer an approach that uses newsfeed data to assess regional supply base risk in LCC’s for the apparel sector, which managers can use to plan for future risk on a long-term planning horizon. Design/methodology/approach This paper demonstrates that the bulk of supplier risk assessments focus on short-term responses to disruptions in developed countries, revealing a gap in assessments of long-term risks for supply base expansion in LCCs. This paper develops an approach for predicting and planning for long-term supply base risk in LCC’s to address this shortfall. A machine-based learning algorithm is developed that uses the analysis of competing hypotheses heuristic to convert data from multiple news feeds into numerical risk scores and visual maps of supply chain risk. This paper demonstrates the approach by converting large amounts of unstructured data into two measures, risk impact and risk probability, leading to visualization of country-level supply base risks for a global apparel company. Findings This paper produced probability and impact scores for 23 distinct supply base risks across 10 countries in the apparel sector. The results suggest that the most significant long-term risks of supply disruption for apparel in LCC’s are human resource regulatory risks, workplace issues, inflation costs, safety violations and social welfare violations. The results suggest that apparel brands seeking suppliers in the regions of Cambodia, India, Bangladesh, Brazil and Vietnam should be aware of the significant risks in these regions that may require mitigative action. Originality/value This approach establishes a novel approach for objectively projecting future global sourcing risk, and yields visually mapped outcomes that can be applied in forecasting and planning for future risks when considering sourcing locations in LCC’s.