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Objectives Movement restriction policies (MRPs) are effective in preventing/delaying COVID-19 transmission but are associated with high societal cost. This study aims to estimate the health burden of the first wave of COVID-19 in China and the cost-effectiveness of early versus late implementation of MRPs to inform preparation for future waves. Methods The SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) modeling framework was adapted to simulate the health and cost outcomes of initiating MRPs at different times: rapid implementation (January 23, the real-world scenario), delayed by 1 week, delayed by 2 weeks, and delayed by 4 weeks. The end point was set as the day when newly confirmed cases reached zero. Two costing perspectives were adopted: healthcare and societal. Input data were obtained from official statistics and published literature. The primary outcomes were disability-adjusted life-years, cost, and net monetary benefit. Costs were reported in both Chinese renminbi (RMB) and US dollars (USD) at 2019 values. Results The first wave of COVID-19 in China resulted in 38 348 disability adjusted life-years lost (95% CI 19 417-64 130) and 2639 billion RMB losses (95% CI 1347-4688). The rapid implementation strategy dominated all other delayed strategies. This conclusion was robust to all scenarios tested. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of 70 892 RMB (the national annual GDP per capita) per disability-adjusted life-year saved, the probability for the rapid implementation to be the optimal strategy was 96%. Conclusions Early implementation of MRPs in response to COVID-19 reduced both the health burden and societal cost and thus should be used for future waves of COVID-19.

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Microbiota and its induced inflammation in colorectal mucosa have been considered risk factors for the development of colorectal carcinogenesis. Previous studies demonstrated that the coexisting elements of microbiota in the gut, such as short chain fatty acids (SCFAs) and lipopolysaccharides (LPS), which exhibited regulatory effects on the intestinal epithelial cells individually. Unfortunately, the association between butyrate and the toll-like receptor (TLR) signaling pathway in the development of colon cancer is not fully elucidated. In the present study, by culturing human colon cancer SW480 cells or mouse colon cancer CT26 cells with butyrate and/or TLR4 ligand LPS in vitro, it was identified that butyrate suppressed the growth and promoted apoptosis of these cancer cells. Notably, the expression levels of TLR4 and CD14 were markedly increased on these butyrate-treated cells, but not on LPS-alone treated cells. Additionally, butyrate treatment induced the phosphorylation of extracellular signal-regulated kinase, tumor protein 38, c-Jun NH2-terminal kinase and nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) p65, and then promoted the pro-inflammatory cytokine tumor necrosis factor-α, but not interleukin 6 secretion in SW480 and CT26 cells. Therefore, butyrate treatment regulates the expression of TLR4, mitogen-activated protein kinase and NF-κB signal pathway activation and pro-inflammatory response in vitro. Although the exact mechanisms have not been fully explored, these results suggested that butyrate and LPS-TLR4 signaling mediated innate immunity in colon cancer cells through two distinct but inter-regulated pathways. Thus, butyrate can further initiate innate immunity against tumor cells by upregulating the TLR4 expression and activation to preserve intestinal homeostasis.