In this study, we have first studied the trend in meteorological data from the Harmaleh, Vanai and Farsesh stations in the 50-year period in the Dez catchment area. The meteorological data will be then forecasted using SWAT and Mann-Kendall. Forecasting the results in the Mann-Kendall and SWAT model has been done using the code written in MATLAB software and RCP (4.5, 8.5) scenarios, respectively. Studying the results of the trend in the data of meteorological stations in this catchment area indicated that these two parametric and non-parametric methods have been used to determine trends in meteorological data. The results of the parametric method are positive in all meteorological parameters. Non-parametric method over a period of 50 years shows the presence of trends in the data. The comparison on the forecasting results at maximum temperature suggested that during summer, we will see an increase in temperature compared to the ground state in all three forecasts. The results of the minimum temperature forecast show a decrease in the minimum increase during the winter and the precipitation forecast indicates that at the end of autumn (Nov) precipitation decreased by 20 mm in the Mann-Kendall and 4.5 RCP while RCP8.5 suggests the increase in precipitation compared to the ground state. Studying the runoff forecast results using SWOT show that at the end of winter (Feb) and almost all spring (Mar, Apr) a decrease of about 40%, 15% and 14% will be seen, respectively
The Karkheh basin is one of Iran's largest and most waterlogged rivers. In this study, we aim to analyze the impact of Climate change and landuse change on the Karkheh basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this research, the considered land-use change is based on Iran's future policies, and climate change is studied by employing the RCP series and GCM in Mid-term (2040–2060) and Long-term (2080–2100). Firstly, changes in climate and land use are separately examined, and then the simultaneous impact of these two parameters is investigated. The results of the climate change study illustrate that the highest rate of change, which is a decrease of 14.3–22.8%, is achieved from the RCP 8.5 series in the long term. The results obtained from investigating the land-use change based on future policies in Iran show a maximum reduction of 7% in the average monthly runoff. The flow rate also decreases further when considering the simultaneous effects of both changes in the basin. In this case, the RCP 8.5 series shows a reduction of up to 39% in the long term. This study suggests that the effects of climate change are more significant than changes in landuse.
Today, one of the most important aspects of urban planning and management is the issue of environmental protection. It is necessary to consider the effects of urban development on the environment in urban planning to achieve sustainable economic and industrial development. In this paper, an optimal planning structure has been developed to reduce the pollution load of Khorramabad River, Lorestan Province, Iran. The developed fuzzy trading-ratio system was programmed based on risk-based fuzzy analysis for 9 dischargers of biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) as a water quality index and optimized using a genetic algorithm. The calibrated and verified model was utilized to simulate the BOD5 concentration at checkpoints of the river using four data sets of water quality collected from 2018 to 2021 in.August (2018, 2019 and 2020 for calibration and 2021 for verification). The results showed that BOD5 exchange in the downstream stations is in critical condition. Optimization to reduce the cost of wastewater treatment showed that the proposed model could be economically improved by about 11%. The feasible domain of risk changes was assessed at three levels of 30, 60 and 90%, with the maximum value of the objective function calculated for the alcohol factory and the minimum value was obtained for the flour factory.
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