Urban sprawl has become a remarkable feature in urban development, especially in developing countries, in the last decades. To face this phenomenon, it is required to first forecast auto-spreading orientation rural areas over time in order to avoid shapeless urban growth. Although GIS/RS and CA-Markov models are applied to study urban growth patterns the world over, very few studies have applied these methods to examine the urban growth of Iran. A major land use change is detected here from 1989 to 2013. In this study the future sprawl of this province is forecasted for target years of 2025 and 2037 through a simulation. The results predict an alarming increase in urban development for the target years of 2025 and 2037, with an expansion is predicted to develop of 11510 and 18320 ha, respectively. In sum, this model is an efficient tool for the support of urban planning decisions and facilitates the process of sustainable urban development providing decisionmakers.
Abstract:The hypothesis addressed in this article is to determine the extent of selected land use categories with respect to their effect on urban expansion. A model that combines a logistic regression model, Markov chain, together with cellular automata based modeling, is introduced here to simulate future urban growth and development in the Gilan Province, Iran. The model is calibrated based on data beginning in 1989 and ending in 2013 and is applied in making predictions for the years 2025 and 2037, across 12 urban development criteria. The relative operating characteristic (ROC) is validated with a very high rate of urban development. The analyzed results indicate that the area of urban land has increased by more than 1.7% that is, from 36,012.5 ha in 1989 to 59,754.8 ha in 2013 and the area of the Caspian Hyrcanian forestland has reduced by 31,628 ha. The simulation results, with respect to prediction, indicate an alarming increase in the rate of urban development in the province by 2025 and 2037 that is, 0.82% and 1.3%, respectively. The development pattern is expected to be uneven and scattered, without following any particular direction. The development will occur close to the existing or newly-formed urban infrastructure and around major roads and commercial areas. If not controlled, this development trend will lead to the loss of 25,101 ha of Hyrcanian forest and, if continued, 21,774 ha of barren and open lands are expected to be destroyed by the year 2037. These results demonstrate the capacity of the integrated model in establishing comparisons with urban plans and their utility to explain both the volume and constraints of urban growth. It is beneficial to apply the integrated approach in urban dynamic assessment through land use modeling with respect to spatio-temporal representation in distinct urban development formats.
This paper examines the first 10 years (1979—89) of the implementation of the Urban Land Act in Iran in order to revisit the debate on the capacity of market-enabling policies to improve low-income housing provision in developing countries. The outcome of the Iranian experience during the study period shows that, at the very least, governments can play an important and effective role in low- and middle-income housing provision through direct provision of urban land in parallel with markets. This suggests that the best way forward may be a combination of market-enabling approaches that develop basic institutional functions plus proactive government intervention for developing public land banks to provide better access to cheap land for a range of housing providers including individual households, co-operatives and private developers.
Urbanization development in Iran has caused increasing critical problems, with the result that there is a need to review urban planning in this country. This article aims to explore the impact of biophilic planning on liveability, with special focus on the role of nature as part of society. The study was done in Hashtgerd, an Iranian new town, where an environmental analysis showed that this town can be developed on the West, North and North-West, due to the natural potential of the area.Based on the literature review and content analysis (selective coding), components of biophilic planning and liveability of new towns have been identified and used to test the opinions of 382 residents in Hashtgerd on biophilic planning and liveability of a new town in Iran. The data from the questionnaire were collected and processed, using SPSS software. The final dependent and independent variables were identified and analysed. Correlation coefficients in the regression analysis were used to analyse the effects on each other between the identified dependent and independent variables.According to the results and findings, urban management (a component of biophilic planning) has the biggest effect in achieving liveable cities. The outcome of the study is crucial for construction and urban planning team members, clients and environmentalists. Another reason, that is particularly relevant to developing countries, is the natural potential and related industries to create beneficial social and economic impacts.
Keywords: Biophilic planning, liveability, new town, Iran
"BIOPHILIC" BEPLANNING, 'N NUWE BENADERING IN DIE BEREIKING VAN BEWOONBARE STEDE IN NUWE DORPE VAN IRAN -HASHTGERD GEVALLESTUDIEDie ontwikkeling van verstedeliking in Iran het groeiende kritieke probleme veroorsaak en dit het nodig geword om 'n oorsig oor stadsbeplanning in hierdie land te kry. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om die impak van "biophilic" beplanning op leefbaarheid, met spesiale fokus op die rol van die natuur as deel van die samelewing, te verken. Die studie is gedoen in Hashtgerd, 'n Iraanse nuwe dorp omdat omgewingsanalises getoon het dat hierdie dorp in die Weste, Noorde en Noordweste ontwikkel kan word as gevolg van sy natuurlike vermoëns.Gebaseer op die literatuurstudie en inhoudsontleding (selektiewe kodering) is komponente van "biophilic" beplanning en leefbaarheid van nuwe dorpe geïdentifiseer en gebruik om die opinies van 382 inwoners in Hasthgerd oor "biophilic" beplanning en leefbaarheid van 'n nuwe dorp in Iran te toets. Nadat die data verkry uit die vraelyste versamel en verwerk is deur middel van SPSS sagteware, is die finale afhanklike en onafhanklike veranderlikes geïdentifiseer en ontleed. Korrelasiekoeffisiënte in die regressie-analise is gebruik om die uitwerking op mekaar tussen die geïdentifiseerde afhanklike en onafhanklike veranderlikes te ontleed.Volgens die resultate en bevindinge, het stedelike bestuur (komponent van "biophilic" beplanning) die grootste effek om 'n bewoonbare stad te verwerklik. Die uitkoms van die st...
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