Egypt’s population growth, scarce resources, and a struggling economy threaten its capacity to achieve food security. Water is of particular interest at this juncture given impending development projects under increasingly uncertain climate conditions. The main objective of this research is to forecast grains production in Egypt under different productivity scenarios, based on annual data from 1980 to 2017, to estimate and forecast cultivated area. Findings suggest that the potential reduction in the Nile flows into Egypt will adversely impact agricultural production, especially during the summer season, reducing cultivated areas and decreasing crop yields. These findings suggest that Egypt’s reliance on imports will continue and grain imports will increase as the population grows and opportunities to reclaim lands remain limited. If food security and concerns about reliance on food imports persist among leaders, future policy options should focus on increasing water-use efficiency and raising productivity of both land and water.

Agriculture is one of Egypt's most important sectors and a principal economic and social concern. The challenge to Egypt's agriculture is to sustainably expand agricultural production to meet escalating domestic demand for food and serve as a pathway out of poverty. However, the agricultural sector faces many difficulties and challenges that have characterized the sector in recent decades. This paper outlines the key characteristics of Egypt's agriculture and the significant threats to agricultural production and productivity. Besides, it summarizes current trends in productivity growth rates of the major grain crops. The overall objective of the article is to analyze the impact of food security concerns on agriculture sustainability in Egypt and the consequences of unsustainable agriculture systems on food security. The nexus of food security concernsthe growing number of poor people, increasing demand for food, escalating food prices, resource constraints to increase food production, struggling economy, and the burden of food imports-has stimulated agricultural intensification. On the other hand, unsustainable cropping systems could lead to the exhaustion of scarce water resources, deterioration of soil fertility, and pollution of water and land resources. Such consequences caused by agricultural intensification jeopardize Egypt's ability of food production into the future.

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Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that significantly contributes to climate change. On the average, total greenhouse gas emissions from all economic sectors were 228 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq), of which 35 million tonnes CO2eq, or 15 percent, came from agricultural production during the period . Therefore, the study primarily aimed to identify and study the key factors affecting the quantities of total greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural production. The study utilized the multiple linear regression model, estimating the double-log model. The results suggested that the burning of crop residues, the amount of nitrogen fertilizer used in agriculture, the energy used in agriculture, and the number of cattle during the study period were the key determinants of total greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture during the study period.

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