We examine the asymmetric effects of oil supply shocks, shocks to global real economic activity, and oil-specific demand shocks on the oil, non-oil and overall trade balances of a large sample of oil exporters and oil importers. Our empirical strategy accounts for endogenous oil prices, heterogeneous parameters, and error cross section dependence within a panel framework. We find that the pattern of asymmetries in the oil price-trade balance relationship depends on the source of the shock. For both oil exporters and oil importers, oil supply expansions are more important than oil supply disruptions; we discuss the role that Saudi Arabia plays in limiting the global effects of oil supply disruptions. Although increases in global demand deteriorate trade balances for oil importers and improve them for oil exporters, decreases in global demand have a similar, rather than an opposite effect. Our results corroborate the existing evidence that oil price increases only generate large global imbalances if they result from demand-side shocks; and we present new evidence that oil price decreases only benefit oil importers if they result from supply-side shocks.

This article analyses the relationship between the experience of a crisis and advice seeking in small firms. Although the benefits of business advice and support to smaller firms are well documented, smaller firms are often reluctant to seek external advice, relying instead on informal routines and a focus on daily operations. Conceptualising crisis as a trigger for advice seeking, and using survey data from 2089 small firms, we find a strong and significant relationship between experiencing a crisis and seeking external business advice up to 5 years after the crisis. This sustained effect on advice seeking is particularly strong for firms who also sought advice at the time of the crisis. Additionally, we find that the effect of a business crisis on sustained advice seeking is stronger for firms subject to a crisis with external origins.