In this paper, we investigate the macroeconomic, demographic and institutional factors affecting the probability of growth slowdown in upper-middle-income countries within the framework of the growth slowdown methodology developed by Eichengreen et al. (2011). To do so, we use probit regression, and the dataset covers the period 1980-2015. The results show that growth slowdown occurs when per capita income reaches 22 percent of that in the United States. Besides, an increase in the relative income, gross capital formation, trade openness, years of total schooling, old dependency ratio and law and order index increases the risk of growth slowdown, whereas an increase in public debt, inflation variability and years of secondary and higher schooling decreases the risk of growth slowdown.
In this article, we examine Solow-Swan Model, Augmented Solow-Swan Model, Absolute and Conditional Convercence hypotheses by following (Mankiw-Romer-Weil, 1992). Panel Data Fixed Effects approach is employed in six distinct country groups (all, population over one million, West, Africa, Islam and Latin) between 1990-2010 period. We found that coefficients of original model have higher values as compared to model suggestions, but these values have not come to normal levels when we control the human capital. In addition to this finding, explanatory power of independent variables in augmented model has increased and nearly explained per-worker income level. Finally, we concluded that income differences among countries may fade away in time on the condition that countries have the same structural characteristics.
Purpose Macro models are being developed in Islamic economics literature. These models, in general, follow the program of Islamization of knowledge and combine the genuine characteristics of Islamic economics with the tools of mainstream economics. The founding leader of Millî Görüs movement in Turkey, Necmettin Erbakan, and a group of Islamic intellectuals, had developed an economic program known as the just system. This paper aims to attempt to model the just economic system (the JES) with appropriate econometric techniques. Design/methodology/approach This paper models the macroeconomics of the JES with linear equations and conducts a series of simulations to identify its outputs. Based on the closed economy assumption, this paper describes the production function with a government share, defines a charitable foundation sector, exclude the speculation motive in money demand. Savings are transferred into investments without interest. This paper also develops an econometric simultaneous-equation model of the JES. Findings According to the results obtained from the selected simulation scenarios, this paper concludes that the macroeconomic JES works well and produces desirable outputs as it was stated in the original program. Research limitations/implications In future studies, the econometric estimations of the JES can be made. By adding more equations to the simple model, a medium or large scale JES macroeconomic model can be developed. Practical implications The JES can now be a source of economic policy designs. Social implications The model can be used to address socioeconomic objectives. Originality/value It is the only Islamic economic model that has been ever developed in Turkey. The notion of the JES has not been subjected to enough economic analysis and as far as it is known, it has not yet been modeled and simulated.
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