Several electric power companies are now forecasting electric loads based on conventional methods. However, since the relationship between loads and factors influencing these loads is nonlinear, it is difficult to identify its nonlinearity by using conventional methods. Most of papers deal with 24-h-ahead load forecasting or next day peak load forecasting. These methods forecast the demand power by using forecasted temperature as forecast information. But, when the temperature curves change rapidly on the forecast day, loads change greatly and forecast error would be going to increase. Typically, load forecasting can be long-term, medium-term, short-term or very short-term. This paper concentrates on short-term load forecasting and partially on medium-term load forecasting applying regression models.
An attempt is made to evaluate the lightning over-voltage failure rate for Amman- Aqaba 400kV transmission line by studying the geographical and temporal characteristics of lightning causing the line forced outages. The line was divided into three sections based on weather and pollution conditions. It was found that the line failure rate due to lightning over-voltages is low compared to other types of line outages. The investigation shows that the pollution conditions do cause line failures more than that due to lightning or adverse weather conditions. However, it is recommended that full investigation of the pollution nature including the effects of dust storms, maximum and minimum temperatures, wind speed and rain falls should be exercised for less line outages
Electric power system re liability is a ver.y important aspect for both producers .::and consume rs. For the form er it is important t o de sigll an op timally r eliable system while f o r t he lat ter it is i mpo rtant for the economic use of electric i ty f o r produc tion a nd serv i c es . Comb ining the two sides o ne sets th e importa nce o ( sys t e m reliability to the national economy. One impor tant Indicator for detecmining optimum reliability l eve l i s th e c ost o f outage to co n sumers. The authors in thi z pa pe r pr esent a n esti mation for: th e cost of outage using t hree methodologies. The o v erall average cost of outage is e stimated at JD O . 6J/Kwh (U .S.$ l /K\ .. h) while the specific outage cos t s are: JD O.28 /kw h , JD O.32/ Kwh and JD 1.4/Kwh for dome s tiC, industrial and comme rc i.d con s umers r.espect! vely.
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