Mathematical modeling methods are frequently used for solving everyday problems. Decision making, one such method, can be used in every aspect of life for different scales such as micro (households), medium (companies), and macro (states) decisions. Due to the large number of parameters affecting decision, it is possible to make mistakes in the selection of the appropriate investment instrument with classical methods; hence, scarce resources may be wasted, and sometimes it may even be impossible to make a decision. This study seeks to answer the question "Which financial investment instrument should be selected under the current conditions?" using decision making problems. Factors affecting gold, USD, and EURO, which are selected as the financial investment instruments in Turkey, are examined using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test. The selected variables are monthly and belong to the January 2009 to May 2018 period. The ARDL results show that the selected financial investment instruments are affected by most of the factors separately. By using the coefficients obtained from the ARDL model, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model was established. According to the results of the model, the EURO was determined as the most suitable financial investment for Ahmet and others with the same preferences.
Sanayi Devrimi'nin etkisiyle petrolün ulaşımda ve üretimde yoğun olarak kullanılması, ekonomiler için petrolü vazgeçilmez bir unsur yapmıştır. Dünya üzerinde petrol rezervlerinin belirli bölgelerde toplanması, diğer ülkeler için ithalatını zorunlu kılmıştır. Fiyatların petrol üreten ülkeler tarafından arz-talep koşullarının dışında belirlenmesi, petrol arz şoklarına yol açabilmektedir. Bu şoklar, üretim maliyetlerini önemli derecede etkileyerek ülkeleri durgunluk, enflasyon ve yüksek işsizlik gibi ekonomik sorunlarla karşı karşıya bırakır. Bu şokların etkisi altında kalan petrol ithalatçısı ülkelerden biri de Türkiye'dir. Bu çalışmada değişen petrol fiyatlarının Türkiye ihracatı üzerindeki etkisi ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımıyla araştırılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular Türkiye için uzun dönemde petrol fiyatlarındaki artışın ihracatı pozitif yönde etkilediği şeklinde olmuştur.
The main goal of the countries that want to increase the prosperity of their citizens is economic growth. As a result of worldwide economic and prosperity growth, consumption and energy usage increased significantly. Insufficiency of the local resources lead the countries to international trade. Growth of international trade and increase of financial transactions made the current account deficit (CAD) problem very important for the countries. Therefore, countries develop policies in order to understand the causes of the CAD and resolve them. Some of the factors that cause the CAD are excessive appreciation of the country's currency, fast economic growth and increase in the imported oil prices. Increase of the CAD as a share of GDP lead economies to currency and/or financial crises by increasing their fragility. Thus, CAD preserves its actuality and significance as a problem for economies. In the last decades, the CAD issue became one of the chronical problems of Turkish economy. In this context, it is seen that Turkish economy adopted the growth with CAD strategy in last 20 years and always have CAD in this period except 1998 and 2001. In this study, the causality relation and long-term relationship of Turkey's current account balance (CAB), GDP, brent type oil prices, and real exchange rate are determined by using data of 2000: Q1-2016: Q2. According to results, there is a bidirectional causality between CAD and GDP and one-way causality from oil prices to both GDP and CAD. In addition to causality relation, according the cointegration analysis, oil prices and GDP increase the CAD in the long run.
N2O, one of the most harmful of greenhouse gases, causes great damage to the environment. Although it does not attract as much attention as CO2, policies to reduce the emission of this gas are of great importance for a sustainable environment and economy. As the untimely implementation of policies can lead to inefficiency and waste of scarce resources, their timings should be considered carefully. At this point, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) approach makes a great contribution to the determination timings of policies. In this study, we investigated the EKC relation for N2O emission using the panel data of selected 20 European countries and Turkey, to examine the relationship between N2O emissions and economic growth. For this purpose, we applied the panel ARDL test to the panel data set for the period 1992-2017. According to the panel ARDL results, there is a statistically significant long-run relationship between N2O emission and economic growth. This relationship forms an "N" shaped curve.
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