Global change encompasses changes in the characteristics of interrelated climate variables in space and time, and derived changes in terrestrial processes, including human activities that affect the environment. As such, projected global change includes groundwater systems. Here, groundwater is defined as all subsurface water including soil water, deeper vadose zone water, and unconfined and confined aquifer waters. Potential effects of climate change combined with land and water management on surface waters have been studied in some detail. Equivalent studies of groundwater systems have lagged behind these advances, but research and broader interest in projected climate effects on groundwater have been accelerating in recent years. In this paper, we provide an overview and synthesis of the key aspects of subsurface hydrology, including water quantity and quality, related to global change. Adaptation to global change must include prudent management of groundwater as a renewable, but slow-feedback resource in most cases. Groundwater storage is already over-tapped in many regions, yet available subsurface storage may be a key to meeting the combined demands of agriculture, industry, municipal and domestic water supply, and ecosystems during times of shortage. The future intensity and frequency of dry periods combined with warming trends need to be addressed in the context of groundwater resources, even though projections in space and time are fraught with uncertainty. Finally, potential impacts of groundwater on the global climate system are largely unknown. Research to improve our understanding of the joint behaviors of climate and groundwater is needed, and spin-off benefits on each discipline are likely.

Experiments with a surface processes model of large‐scale (1–1000 km) long‐term (1–100 m.y.) erosional denudation are used to establish the controls on the evolution of a model escarpment that is related to the rifting of a continent. The model describes changes in topographic form as a result of simultaneous short‐ and long‐range mass transport representing hillslope (diffusive) processes and fluvial transport (advection), respectively. Fluvial entrainment is modeled as a first‐order kinetic reaction which reflects the credibility of the substrate, and therefore the fluvial system is not necessarily carrying at capacity. One‐dimensional and planform models demonstrate that the principal controls on the evolution of an initially steep model escarpment are (1) antecedent topography/drainage; (2) the timescale (or equivalently a length scale) in the fluvial entrainment reaction; (3) the flexural response of the lithosphere to denudation; and (4) the relative efficiencies of the short‐ and long‐range transport processes. When rainfall and substrate lithology are uniform, a significant amount of discharge draining over the escarpment top causes it to degrade. Only when the top of the model escarpment coincides with a drainage divide can escarpment retreat occur for these conditions. An additional requirement for retreat of a model escarpment without decline is a long reaction time scale for fluvial entrainment. This corresponds to a substrate that is hard to detach by fluvial erosion, and therefore to fluvial erosion that is not transport limited. Continuous backtilting of an escarpment due to flexural isostatic uplift in response to denudational unloading helps maintain the scarp top as a divide. It is essential if the escarpment gradient is to be preserved during retreat in a uniform lithology. Low flexural rigidities promote steep and slowly retreating escarpments. For given rainfall and substrate conditions, the morphology of a retreating model escarpment is determined by the ratio of the short‐range diffusive and long‐range advective transport efficiencies. A low ratio (which is interpreted to correspond to a relatively arid climate and weathering‐limited conditions) promotes steep, sharp‐topped escarpments with straight main slopes, and escarpment retreat occurs over a wide range of height scales. A high ratio (interpreted to correspond to a more humid, temperate climate) produces a convex upper slope, and concave lower slope morphology and only major escarpments are predicted to preserve a high scarp gradient. Lithological contrasts in the model produce more complex morphologies and predict the formation of scarps crowned by an erosionally resistant caprock. However, resistant caprocks are not an essential requirement for model scarps to retreat. We conclude that the inferred controls and model behavior are both consistent with the present‐day morphology of rifted continental margins and with modern conceptual models of landscape evolution.

The flow of terrestrial groundwater to the sea is an important natural component of the hydrological cycle. This process, however, does not explain the large volumes of low-salinity groundwater that are found below continental shelves. There is mounting evidence for the global occurrence of offshore fresh and brackish groundwater reserves. The potential use of these non-renewable reserves as a freshwater resource provides a clear incentive for future research. But the scope for continental shelf hydrogeology is broader and we envisage that it can contribute to the advancement of other scientific disciplines, in particular sedimentology and marine geochemistry.

Many major river deltas in the world are subsiding and consequently become increasingly vulnerable to flooding and storm surges, salinization and permanent inundation. For the Mekong Delta, annual subsidence rates up to several centimetres have been reported. Excessive groundwater extraction is suggested as the main driver. As groundwater levels drop, subsidence is induced through aquifer compaction. Over the past 25 years, groundwater exploitation has increased dramatically, transforming the delta from an almost undisturbed hydrogeological state to a situation with increasing aquifer depletion. Yet the exact contribution of groundwater exploitation to subsidence in the Mekong delta has remained unknown. In this study we deployed a delta-wide modelling approach, comprising a 3D hydrogeological model with an integrated subsidence module. This provides a quantitative spatially-explicit assessment of groundwater extraction-induced subsidence for the entire Mekong delta since the start of widespread overexploitation of the groundwater reserves. We find that subsidence related to groundwater extraction has gradually increased in the past decades with highest sinking rates at present. During the past 25 years, the delta sank on average ∼18 cm as a consequence of groundwater withdrawal. Current average subsidence rates due to groundwater extraction in our best estimate model amount to 1.1 cm yr−1, with areas subsiding over 2.5 cm yr−1, outpacing global sea level rise almost by an order of magnitude. Given the increasing trends in groundwater demand in the delta, the current rates are likely to increase in the near future.

Linear systems analysis is used to investigate the response of a surface processes model (SPM) to tectonic forcing. The SPM calculates subcontinental scale denudational landscape evolution on geological timescales (1 to hundreds of million years) as the result of simultaneous hillslope transport, modeled by diffusion, and fluvial transport, modeled by advection and reaction. The tectonically forced SPM accommodates the large‐scale behavior envisaged in classical and contemporary conceptual geomorphic models and provides a framework for their integration and unification. The following three model scales are considered: micro‐, meso‐, and macroscale. The concepts of dynamic equilibrium and grade are quantified at the microscale for segments of uniform gradient subject to tectonic uplift. At the larger meso‐ and macroscales (which represent individual interfluves and landscapes including a number of drainage basins, respectively) the system response to tectonic forcing is linear for uplift geometries that are symmetric with respect to baselevel and which impose a fully integrated drainage to baselevel. For these linear models the response time and the transfer function as a function of scale characterize the model behavior. Numerical experiments show that the styles of landscape evolution depend critically on the timescales of the tectonic processes in relation to the response time of the landscape. When tectonic timescales are much longer than the landscape response time, the resulting dynamic equilibrium landscapes correspond to those envisaged by Hack (1960). When tectonic timescales are of the same order as the landscape response time and when tectonic variations take the form of pulses (much shorter than the response time), evolving landscapes conform to the Penck type (1972) and to the Davis (1889, 1899) and King (1953, 1962) type frameworks, respectively. The behavior of the SPM highlights the importance of phase shifts or delays of the landform response and sediment yield in relation to the tectonic forcing. Finally, nonlinear behavior resulting from more general uplift geometries is discussed. A number of model experiments illustrate the importance of “fundamental form,” which is an expression of the conformity of antecedent topography with the current tectonic regime. Lack of conformity leads to models that exhibit internal thresholds and a complex response.

[1] The recent increase in fresh-water discharge during low-flow conditions as observed in many (sub-) Arctic Rivers has been attributed to a reactivation of groundwater flow systems caused by permafrost degradation. Hydrogeological simulations show how groundwater flow conditions in an idealized aquifer system evolve on timescales of decades to centuries in response to climate warming scenarios as progressive lowering of the permafrost table establishes a growing shallow groundwater flow system. Ultimately, disappearance of residual permafrost at depth causes a sudden establishment of deep groundwater flow paths. The projected shifts in groundwater flow conditions drive characteristic non-linear trends in the evolution of increasing groundwater discharge to streams. Although the subsurface distribution of ice will markedly influence the system response, current modeling results suggest that latestage accelerations in base flow increase of streams and rivers, are to be expected, even if surface air temperatures stabilize at the current levels in the near future.

While the existence of relatively fresh groundwater sequestered within permeable, porous sediments beneath the Atlantic continental shelf of North and South America has been known for some time, these waters have never been assessed as a potential resource. This fresh water was likely emplaced during Pleistocene sea-level low stands when the shelf was exposed to meteoric recharge and by elevated recharge in areas overrun by the Laurentide ice sheet at high latitudes. To test this hypothesis, we present results from a high-resolution paleohydrologic model of groundwater flow, heat and solute transport, ice sheet loading, and sea level fluctuations for the continental shelf from New Jersey to Maine over the last 2 million years. Our analysis suggests that the presence of fresh to brackish water within shallow Miocene sands more than 100 km offshore of New Jersey was facilitated by discharge of submarine springs along Baltimore and Hudson Canyons where these shallow aquifers crop out. Recharge rates four times modern levels were computed for portions of New England's continental shelf that were overrun by the Laurentide ice sheet during the last glacial maximum. We estimate the volume of emplaced Pleistocene continental shelf fresh water (less than 1 ppt) to be 1300 km(3) in New England. We also present estimates of continental shelf fresh water resources for the U.S. Atlantic eastern seaboard (10(4) km(3)) and passive margins globally (3 x 10(5) km(3)). The simulation results support the hypothesis that offshore fresh water is a potentially valuable, albeit nonrenewable resource for coastal megacities faced with growing water shortages.

[1] Using numerical models, we evaluate hydrogeological regime changes in high-latitude river basins under conditions of ground surface warming. These models describe transient heat-and fluid flow coupled to the hydrogeological impacts of phase-changes from ice to liquid water. We consider an idealized unconsolidated sedimentary aquifer system in which groundwater flow is driven by topography, representing a series of small drainage basins in riverine terrain of relatively subdued topography. Various temporal and spatial surface temperature conditions are considered to control the initial permafrost distributions for the simulations. The simulated rates of increase in groundwater contribution to streamflow during and after permafrost thaw, are in the order of magnitude comparable to hydrogeological regime changes over the past decades as reported for several (sub-)Arctic rivers. The simulations further show that two distinct features of the subsurface response control the temporal evolution of base flow increase: (1) shifts in aquifer permeability architecture during permafrost degradation and (2) uptake of water into aquifer storage when sub-permafrost hydraulic heads rise. Model analysis shows that the latter process delays base flow increase by several decades to centuries. In order to evaluate the relative importance of both processes in natural systems, the current hydraulic regime of sub-permafrost aquifer systems as well as patterns of permafrost heterogeneity, taliks and their hydraulic connectivity are insufficiently known.