Background Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN) is premalignant pancreatic lesion. International guidelines offer limited predictors of individual risk. A nomogram to predict individual IPMN malignancy risk was released, with good diagnostic performance based on a large cohort of Asian patients with IPMN. The present study validated a nomogram to predict malignancy risk and invasiveness of IPMN using both Eastern and Western cohorts. Methods Clinicopathological and radiological data from patients who underwent pancreatic resection for IPMN at four centres each in Eastern and Western countries were collected. After excluding patients with missing data for at least one malignancy predictor in the nomogram (main pancreatic duct diameter, cyst size, presence of mural nodule, serum carcinoembryonic antigen and carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19‐9 levels, and age). Results In total, data from 393 patients who fit the criteria were analysed, of whom 265 were from Eastern and 128 from Western institutions. Although mean age, sex, log value of serum CA19‐9 level, tumour location, main duct diameter, cyst size and presence of mural nodule differed between the Korean/Japanese, Eastern and Western cohorts, rates of malignancy and invasive cancer did not differ significantly. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve values for the nomogram predicting malignancy were 0·745 for Eastern, 0·856 for Western and 0·776 for combined cohorts; respective values for the nomogram predicting invasiveness were 0·736, 0·891 and 0·788. Conclusions External validation of the nomogram showed good performance in predicting cancer in both Eastern and Western patients with IPMN lesions.

The diagnostic value of a positive TPBS for CRPS is low from the view point of the Budapest research criteria. Our findings suggest that a diagnosis of CRPS using the Budapest research criteria should be considered when decreased patterns of TPBS are observed during Phases I and II.

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