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The effects of sea-level rise on the future morphological functioning of estuaries are largely unknown because tidal amplitudes will change due to combined deepening of the estuary mouth and shifting amphidromic points at sea. Fluvial sediment supply is also globally decreasing, which hampers infilling necessary to maintain elevation relative to sea level. Here we model 36 estuaries worldwide with varying sizes, shapes and hydrodynamic characteristics, and find that small shallow estuaries and large deep estuaries respond in opposite ways to sea-level rise. Large estuaries are threatened by sediment starvation and therefore loss of intertidal area, particularly if tidal amplitude decreases at the mouth. In contrast, small estuaries face enhanced flood risks and are more sensitive to tidal amplification on sea-level-rise-induced deepening. Estuary widening can partly mitigate adverse effects. In large estuaries, expanded intertidal areas increase tidal prism and available erodible sediment for adaptation, whereas it slightly reduces tidal amplification in small estuaries.

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The long‐term morphodynamic evolution of estuaries depends on a combination of antecedent topography and boundary conditions, including fluvial input, sea‐level change and regional‐landscape interactions. Identifying effects of such boundary conditions on estuary evolution is important to anticipate future changes in specific boundary conditions and for hindcasting with numerical and physical models. A comprehensive synthesis of the evolution of the former Old Rhine estuary is presented here, together with its boundary conditions over its full lifespan from 6,500 to 1,000 cal. yr bp. This system formed during a period of sea‐level high stand, during which the estuary served as the main River Rhine outlet. The estuary went through three stages of evolution: a maturation phase in a wide infilling back‐barrier basin, a stable mature phase and an abandoning phase, both in a laterally confined setting. The Old Rhine River formed by a river avulsion around 6,500 cal. yr bp that connected to a tidal channel within a large back‐barrier basin. Decelerating sea‐level rise caused the back‐barrier basin to silt up around 5,700 cal. yr bp, resulting in shoreline progradation by beach‐barrier formation until ∼2,000 cal. yr bp. Beach‐barrier formation along the coast and natural levee formation along the river triggered peat formation in the coastal plain, laterally constraining the estuary and limiting overbank deposition, which caused most sediment to accumulate offshore. The abandoning phase started around 2,200 cal. yr bp when a series of upstream avulsions led to a substantial reduction in fluvial input. This induced a period of enhanced estuarine overbank clay deposition that continued into near‐complete silting up and estuary closure around 1200 ad. These findings exemplify how tidal systems, formed in wide coastal plains during sea‐level high stand, depend on antecedent conditions, and how they respond to connection and disconnection of a large river over long, millennial timescales.

Natural levees are common features in river, delta and tidal landscapes. They are elevated near‐channel morphological features that determine the connection between channel and floodbasin, and consequently affect long‐term evolution up to delta‐scales. Despite their relevance in shaping fluvial‐tidal systems, research on levees is sparse and often limited to fluvial or non‐tidal case studies. There is also a general lack of understanding of the role of vegetation in shaping these geomorphic units, and how levee morphology and dimensions vary in the transition from fluvial to coastal environments, where tides are increasingly important. Our goal is to unravel the effects of fluvial‐tidal boundary conditions, sediment supply and vegetation on levee characteristics and floodbasin evolution. These conditions were systematically explored by 60 large‐scale idealized morphodynamic simulations in Delft3D which self‐developed levees over the course of one century. We compared our results to a global levee dataset compilation of natural levee dimensions. We found that levee height is determined by the maximum water level, provided sufficient levee building sediments are available. Discharge fluctuations increased levee width and triggered more levee breaches, i.e. crevasses, that effectively filled the fluvio‐tidal floodbasin. The presence of wood‐type (sparse) vegetation further increased the number of crevasses in comparison with the non‐vegetated scenarios. Conversely, reed‐type (dense) vegetation strongly dampened tidal amplitude and reduced the accommodation space and sedimentation further into the floodbasin, resulting in narrower levees, no crevasses and limited floodbasin accretion. However, dense vegetation reduced tidal forces which allowed levee growth further downstream. Ultimately, the levees merged with the coastal barrier, eliminating the floodbasin tides entirely. Our results elucidate the mechanisms by which levee and crevasse formation, and vegetation may fill fluvio‐tidal wetlands and affect estuary evolution. This brings new insights for geological reconstructions as well as for the future management of deltas and estuaries under sea‐level rise. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd

Holocene drift-sand activity in the northwest European sand belt is commonly directly linked to population pressure (agricultural activity) or to climate change (e.g. storminess). In the Pleistocene sand areas of the Netherlands, small-scale Holocene drift-sand activity began in the Mesolithic, whereas large-scale sand drifting started during the Middle Ages. This last phase not only coincides with the intensification of farming and demographic pressure but also is commonly associated with a colder climate and enhanced storminess. This raises the question to what extent drift-sand activity can be attributed to either human activities or natural forcing factors. In this study, we compare the spatial and temporal patterns of drift-sand occurrence for the four characteristic Pleistocene sand regions in the Netherlands for the period between 1000 BC and AD 1700. To this end, we compiled a new supra-regional overview of drift-sand activity based on age estimates (14C, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), archaeological and historical ages). The occurrence of sand drifting was then compared in time and space with historical-route networks, relative vegetation openness and climate. Results indicate a constant but low drift-sand activity between 1000 BC and AD 1000, interrupted by a remarkable decrease in activity around the BC/AD transition. It is evident that human pressure on the landscape was most influential on initiating sand drifting: this is supported by more frequent occurrences close to routes and the uninterrupted increase of drift-sand activity from AD 900 onwards, a period of high population density and large-scale deforestation. Once triggered by human activities, this drift-sand development was probably further intensified several centuries later during the cold and stormier ‘Little Ice Age’ (LIA; AD 1570–1850).