This paper examines causal relationships between Government Recurrent Expenditure (GRE) and GDP for Iran using annual data over the period 1970-2010. The Gregory-Hansen (1996 cointegration technique, allowing for the presence of potential structural breaks in data, is applied to empirically examine the long-run co-movement between these variables. The results suggest that there is a long-run relationship between these variables. The Granger Causality test indicates strong unidirectional effects from GDP to GRE. But there is no evidence that TRE promotes long-term economic growth. Moreover, the main results in this paper confirm that there is an instantaneous as well as unidirectional causal link running from GDP to GRE. Based on the results, the policy makers should ensure that recurrent expenditures are properly managed to accelerate economic growth. Moreover, government should promote efficiency in the allocation of resources by encouraging more private sector participation to ensure productivity-intensive growth.
The diffi culty in gas price forecasting has attracted much attention of academic researchers and business practitioners. Various methods have been tried to solve the problem of forecasting gas prices however, all of the existing models of prediction cannot meet practical needs. In this paper, a novel hybrid intelligent framework is developed by applying a systematic integration of GMDH neural networks with GA and Rule-based Exert System (RES) employs for gas price forecasting. In this paper we use a new method for extract the rules and compare different methods for gas price forecasting. Our research reveals that during the recent fi nancial crisis period by employing hybrid intelligent framework for gas price forecasting, we obtain better forecasting results compared to the GMDH neural networks and MLF neural networks and results will be so better when we employ hybrid intelligent system with for gas price volatility forecasting.
Studying the function of banks is crucial because their vigorous role in the economy seems to be a subject of immense importance. In the present study, we analyze and study the role of whole banks, commercial banks and specialized banks between 2002 and 2012 in Isfahan, based on the growth of value added approach in the industrial sector. In order to investigate this matter, we have estimated three extinction panels for the whole banking system, specialized banks and commercial banks in Eviews 9. Based on the results it can be argued that in the panels of whole banks and specialized banks, payment facilities have a positive and meaningful impact on the growth of value added in all three sectors of the economy, but in the panel of commercial banks, only banking facilities on a 10 percent level have a positive and meaningful impact on the growth of value added in the industrial sector. As a result, we can conclude that specializing the bank's activities can have a positive effect on the growth of value added in various sectors of the economy.
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