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The North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment (NAWDEX) explored the impact of diabatic processes on disturbances of the jet stream and their influence on downstream high-impact weather through the deployment of four research aircraft, each with a sophisticated set of remote sensing and in situ instruments, and coordinated with a suite of ground-based measurements. A total of 49 research flights were performed, including, for the first time, coordinated flights of the four aircraft: the German High Altitude and Long Range Research Aircraft (HALO), the Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR) Dassault Falcon 20, the French Service des Avions Français Instrumentés pour la Recherche en Environnement (SAFIRE) Falcon 20, and the British Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146. The observation period from 17 September to 22 October 2016 with frequently occurring extratropical and tropical cyclones was ideal for investigating midlatitude weather over the North Atlantic. NAWDEX featured three sequences of upstream triggers of waveguide disturbances, as well as their dynamic interaction with the jet stream, subsequent development, and eventual downstream weather impact on Europe. Examples are presented to highlight the wealth of phenomena that were sampled, the comprehensive coverage, and the multifaceted nature of the measurements. This unique dataset forms the basis for future case studies and detailed evaluations of weather and climate predictions to improve our understanding of diabatic influences on Rossby waves and the downstream impacts of weather systems affecting Europe.

This study focuses on feedbacks of the high-frequency eddy activity onto the quasi-stationary circulation, particularly with regard to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The methodology consists of analyzing NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data and sensitivity runs from a high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional model. Consistent with recent studies, results show that the jet displacement characteristic of the NAO phenomenon depends strongly on the dynamics of the synoptic-scale waves and the way they break. Positive and negative phases of the NAO are closely related to anticyclonic and cyclonic wave breaking, respectively. Indeed, the high-frequency momentum flux whose sign is directly related to the type of wave breaking is correlated with the NAO index over the Atlantic. The peak of the momentum flux signal precedes that of the NAO by a few days suggesting that wave breaking is triggering NAO events. Two examples illustrate the significant impact of single storms, in particular those occurring in the east coast of the United States. The wave breaking at the end of their life cycle can suddenly change the NAO index in few days, and as the return to equilibrium takes generally a longer time, it can even affect the sign of the NAO during an entire month.An important issue determining the NAO phase is related to upstream effects. By considering a domain extending from the eastern Pacific to western Europe and by forcing the regional model with real data at the western boundary, sensitivity runs show that the right sign of the NAO index can be recovered. It indicates that waves coming from the eastern Pacific are crucial for determining the NAO phase. According to their spatial scales and frequencies when they reach the Atlantic domain, they can break one way or another and push the Atlantic jet equatorward or poleward. Synoptic waves with periods between 5 and 12 days break anticyclonically whereas those with periods between 2 and 5 days break both anticyclonically and cyclonically with a predominance for cyclonic wave breaking. Another crucial factor concerns surface effects. Cyclonic wave breaking in the upper levels is strongly connected with an explosive cyclonic development at the surface accompanied by strong surface moisture fluxes whereas such an explosive growth is not present in the anticyclonic wave breaking case. Finally, it is proposed that these results are not only useful for explaining the intraseasonal variations of the NAO but would serve also as a basis for understanding its interannual and interdecadal variations.

The link between Rossby wave breaking (RWB) and the four wintertime weather regimes over the North Atlantic domain is studied in this paper. Using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data, frequencies of occurrence of anticyclonic and cyclonic wave-breaking (AWB and CWB, respectively) events are computed. Each weather regime has its own characteristic pattern of RWB frequencies. CWB events are found to be most frequent for the Greenland anticyclone weather regime whereas AWB events occur more for the Atlantic ridge and the zonal regimes. Time-lagged composites show that the RWB events characterizing each weather regime occur more often during the formation of the regime rather than during its decay. This suggests a reinforcement of the weather regime by RWB. An exception is the blocking weather regime, which is destroyed by an increase of CWB events south of Greenland.Weather regime transitions are then studied using the low-frequency streamfunction tendency budget. Two types of precursors for the transitions have been identified. One is related to linear propagation of lowfrequency transient eddies and the other to nonlinear interactions among the low-and high-frequency transient eddies. The latter has been related to the anomalous frequencies of occurrence of RWB. Two transitions are more precisely analyzed. The transition from blocking to Greenland anticyclone is triggered by a decrease of AWB events over Europe as well as a strong CWB event south of Greenland. The zonal to blocking transition presents evidence of two distinct precursors: one is a low-frequency wave train coming from the subtropical western Atlantic and the other, which occurs later, is characterized by a decrease of AWB and CWB events over western Europe that cannot continue to maintain the westerlies in that region.

The role played by enhanced upper-tropospheric baroclinicity in the poleward shift of the jet streams in global warming scenarios is investigated. Major differences between the twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations are first detailed using two coupled climate model outputs. There is a poleward shift of the eddy-driven jets, an increase in intensity and poleward shift of the storm tracks, a strengthening of the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity, and an increase in the eddy length scale. These properties are more obvious in the Southern Hemisphere. A strengthening of the poleward eddy momentum fluxes and a relative decrease in frequency of cyclonic wave breaking compared to anticyclonic wave breaking events is also observed. Then, baroclinic instability in the three-level quasigeostrophic model is studied analytically and offers a simple explanation for the increased eddy spatial scale. It is shown that if the potential vorticity gradient changes its sign below the midlevel (i.e., if the critical level is located in the lower troposphere as in the real atmosphere), long and short wavelengths become respectively more and less unstable when the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity is increased. Finally, a simple dry atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) is used to confirm the key role played by the upper-level baroclinicity by employing a normal-mode approach and long-term simulations forced by a temperature relaxation. The eddy length scale is shown to largely determine the nature of the breaking: long (short) wavelengths break more anticyclonically (cyclonically). When the upper-tropospheric baroclinicity is reinforced, long wavelengths become more unstable, break more strongly anticyclonically, and push the jet more poleward. Short wavelengths being less unstable, they are less efficient in pushing the jet equatorward. This provides an interpretation for the increased poleward eddy momentum fluxes and thus the poleward shift of the eddy-driven jets.

Mid-latitude eddies are an important component of the climatic system due to their role in transporting heat, moisture and momentum from the tropics to the poles, and also for the precipitation associated with their fronts, especially in winter. We study northern hemisphere stormtracks at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and their influence on precipitation using ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM) simulations from the second phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP2). The difference with PMIP1 results in terms of sea-surface temperature forcing, fundamental for storm-track dynamics, is large, especially in the eastern North Atlantic where sea-ice extends less to the south in OAGCMs compared to atmospheric-only GCMs. Our analyses of the physics of the eddies are based on the equations of eddy energetics. All models simulate a consistent southeastward shift of the North Pacific storm-track in winter, related to a similar displacement of the jet stream, partly forced by the eddies themselves. Precipitation anomalies are consistent with storm-track changes, with a southeastward displacement of the North Pacific precipitation pattern. The common features of North Atlantic changes in the LGM simulations consist of a thinning of the storm-track in its western part and an amplification of synoptic activity to the southeast, in the region between the Azores Islands and the Iberian Peninsula, which reflects on precipitation. This southeastward extension is related to a similar displacement of the jet, partly forced by the eddies. In the western North Atlantic, the synoptic activity anomalies are at first order related to baroclinic generation term anomalies, but the mean-flow baroclinicity increase due to the presence of the Laurentide ice-sheet is partly balanced by a loss of eddy efficiency to convert energy from the mean flow. Moisture availability in this region is greatly reduced due to more advection of dry polar air by stationary waves, leading to less synopticscale latent heat release and hence less precipitation also. In terms of seasonality, the stormy season is shifted later in the year by a few days to a month depending on the season and the model considered. This shift does not directly reflect on the first-order seasonal cycle of precipitation, which also depends on other mechanisms, especially in summer.

An analysis of the potential vorticity gradient and the refractive index in quasigeostrophic (QG) flows on the sphere reveals that the absolute vorticity and the stretching parts have two contradictory effects on the horizontal shape of the baroclinic waves when the full variations of the Coriolis parameter are taken into account in each term. The absolute vorticity effect favors the anticyclonic (southwest-northeast) tilt and anticyclonic wave breaking (AWB) and is stronger in the upper troposphere. In contrast, the stretching effect promotes the cyclonic (northwest-southeast) tilt and cyclonic wave breaking (CWB) and is more efficient at lower levels. A positive eddy feedback acting on the latitudinal variations of the zonal winds is deduced. Because the absolute vorticity and the stretching effects are respectively more and less efficient with increasing latitude, a more northward (southward) jet renders AWB more (less) probable and CWB less (more) probable; the jet is pushed or maintained more northward (southward) by the eddy feedback.Idealized numerical experiments using two aquaplanet models on the sphere, a three-level QG model, and a 10-level primitive equation (PE) model, confirm our analysis. Two strategies are employed: first, a normalmode approach for jets centered at different latitudes; second, an analysis of long-term integrations of the models where the temperature is relaxed toward zonally as well as nonzonally uniform restorationtemperature profiles located at different latitudes. The positive eddy feedback is much less visible in the QG model and CWB is very rare because it does not contain the stretching effect (because of the constant Coriolis parameter in the stretching term).

The present study investigates the formation of sting-jet cyclones using an idealized configuration of a high-resolution mesoscale numerical model. The initial set-up is composed of axisymmetric finite-amplitude synoptic-scale cyclones added to a baroclinic zonal jet. When the surface cyclone is initialized on the warm-air side of the zonal jet, a strong bent-back warm front forms, which is a favourable condition for sting jets. A rather high vertical resolution of about 200 m in the lower troposphere is required to obtain well-formed slantwise circulations near the cloud head and to make the distinction between cold-conveyor-belt jet and sting jet. In contrast, when the surface cyclone is initialized on the jet axis, the surface cyclone is more representative of the Norwegian cyclone model and the bent-back warm front is almost non-existent.Sting-jet mechanisms are analyzed using backward Lagrangian trajectories. A minority group of air parcels entering the sting-jet region undergoes diabatic cooling due to sublimation of snow and graupel. The majority group does not present such a diabatic cooling and corresponds to descending air masses from the cloud-head region in a near-neutral environment with respect to conditional symmetric instability. Indeed, the saturated moist potential vorticity is near zero and the momentum surfaces and saturated moist isentropes are quasi-parallel in the main slantwise descent. The latter descent is shown to be geostrophically forced by the strong divergent component of the along-front Q vector.Boundary-layer processes are also analyzed. In most areas, the static stability being strong, there is no penetration of descents coming from the sting jet into the boundary layer and the peaks in surface wind gusts are connected to intrinsic boundary-layer convective cells and parametrized turbulence. Such a penetration occurs in some areas but is not related to the strongest wind gusts.