Background Health-care resource constraints in low-income and middle-income countries necessitate the identification of cost-effective public health interventions to address COVID-19. We aimed to develop a dynamic COVID-19 microsimulation model to assess clinical and economic outcomes and cost-effectiveness of epidemic control strategies in KwaZulu-Natal province, South Africa. Methods We compared different combinations of five public health interventions: health-care testing alone, where diagnostic testing is done only for individuals presenting to health-care centres; contact tracing in households of cases; isolation centres, for cases not requiring hospital admission; mass symptom screening and molecular testing for symptomatic individuals by community health-care workers; and quarantine centres, for household contacts who test negative. We calibrated infection transmission rates to match effective reproduction number ( R e ) estimates reported in South Africa. We assessed two main epidemic scenarios for a period of 360 days, with an R e of 1·5 and 1·2. Strategies with incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of less than US$3250 per year of life saved were considered cost-effective. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying key parameters ( R e values, molecular testing sensitivity, and efficacies and costs of interventions) to determine the effect on clinical and cost projections. Findings When R e was 1·5, health-care testing alone resulted in the highest number of COVID-19 deaths during the 360-day period. Compared with health-care testing alone, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres reduced mortality by 94%, increased health-care costs by 33%, and was cost-effective (ICER $340 per year of life saved). In settings where quarantine centres were not feasible, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and mass symptom screening was cost-effective compared with health-care testing alone (ICER $590 per year of life saved). When R e was 1·2, health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, and use of quarantine centres was the least costly strategy, and no other strategies were cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses, a combination of health-care testing, contact tracing, use of isolation centres, mass symptom screening, and use of quarantine centres was generally cost-effective, with the exception of scenarios in which R e was 2·6 and when efficacies of isolation centres and quarantine centres for transmission reduction were reduced. Interpretation In South Africa, strategies involving household contact trac...

Key Points Question What are the projected clinical outcomes and costs associated with strategies for reducing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infections among people experiencing sheltered homelessness? Findings In this decision analytic model, daily symptom screening with polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing of individuals who had positive symptom screening paired with nonhospital care site management of people with mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was associated with a substantial decrease in infections and lowered costs over 4 months compared with no intervention across a wide range of epidemic scenarios. In a surging epidemic, adding periodic universal PCR testing to symptom screening and nonhospital care site management was associated with improved clinical outcomes at modestly increased costs. Meaning In this study, daily symptom screening with PCR testing of individuals who had positive symptom screening and use of alternative care sites for COVID-19 management among individuals experiencing sheltered homelessness were associated with substantially reduced new cases and costs compared with other strategies.

Objectives Public health interventions designed to interrupt COVID-19 transmission could have deleterious impacts on primary healthcare access. We sought to identify whether implementation of the nationwide lockdown (shelter-in-place) order in South Africa affected ambulatory clinic visitation in rural Kwa-Zulu Natal (KZN). Design Prospective, longitudinal cohort study Setting Data were analyzed from the Africa Health Research Institute Health and Demographic Surveillance System, which includes prospective data capture of clinic visits at eleven primary healthcare clinics in northern KwaZulu-Natal Participants A total of 36,291 individuals made 55,545 clinic visits during the observation period. Exposure of Interest We conducted an interrupted time series analysis with regression discontinuity methods to estimate changes in outpatient clinic visitation from 60 days before through 35 days after the lockdown period. Outcome Measures Daily clinic visitation at ambulatory clinics. In stratified analyses we assessed visitation for the following sub-categories: child health, perinatal care and family planning, HIV services, non-communicable diseases, and by age and sex strata. Results We found no change in total clinic visits/clinic/day from prior to and during the lockdown (-6.9 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI -17.4, 3.7) or trends in clinic visitation over time during the lockdown period (-0.2, 95%CI -3.4, 3.1). We did detect a reduction in child healthcare visits at the lockdown (-7.2 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI -9.2, -5.3), which was seen in both children <1 and children 1-5. In contrast, we found a significant increase in HIV visits immediately after the lockdown (8.4 visits/clinic/day, 95%CI 2.4, 14.4). No other differences in clinic visitation were found for perinatal care and family planning, non-communicable diseases, or among adult men and women. Conclusions In rural KZN, the ambulatory healthcare system was largely resilient during the national-wide lockdown order. A major exception was child healthcare visitation, which declined immediately after the lockdown but began to normalize in the weeks thereafter. Future work should explore efforts to decentralize chronic care for high-risk populations and whether catch-up vaccination programs might be required in the wake of these findings.

Background We projected the clinical and economic impact of alternative testing strategies on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in Massachusetts using a microsimulation model. Methods We compared five testing strategies: 1) PCR-severe-only: PCR testing only patients with severe/critical symptoms; 2) Self-screen: PCR-severe-only plus self-assessment of COVID-19-consistent symptoms with self-isolation if positive; 3) PCR-any-symptom: PCR for any COVID-19-consistent symptoms with self-isolation if positive; 4) PCR-all: PCR-any-symptom and one-time PCR for the entire population; and, 5) PCR-all-repeat: PCR-all with monthly re-testing. We examined effective reproduction numbers (Re, 0.9-2.0) at which policy conclusions would change. We used published data on disease progression and mortality, transmission, PCR sensitivity/specificity (70/100%) and costs. Model-projected outcomes included infections, deaths, tests performed, hospital-days, and costs over 180-days, as well as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year [QALY]). Results In all scenarios, PCR-all-repeat would lead to the best clinical outcomes and PCR-severe-only would lead to the worst; at Re 0.9, PCR-all-repeat vs. PCR-severe-only resulted in a 63% reduction in infections and a 44% reduction in deaths, but required >65-fold more tests/day with 4-fold higher costs. PCR-all-repeat had an ICER <$100,000/QALY only when Re≥1.8. At all Re values, PCR-any-symptom was cost-saving compared to other strategies. Conclusions Testing people with any COVID-19-consistent symptoms would be cost-saving compared to restricting testing to only those with symptoms severe enough to warrant hospital care. Expanding PCR testing to asymptomatic people would decrease infections, deaths, and hospitalizations. Universal screening would be cost-effective when paired with monthly retesting in settings where the COVID-19 pandemic is surging.

objective To examine knowledge of menstruation, HIV and STIs other than HIV across eight sites in SSA to develop effective programmatic interventions enabling adolescents to achieve positive SRH as their transition to adulthood.methods We combine data from eight Health and Demographic Surveillance Sites across sub-Saharan Africa, from an adolescent-specific survey that included 7116 males and females age 10-19 years old. We provide pooled and site-specific estimates from multiple analytic models examining the how year-specific age, school attendance and work correlate with knowledge of menstruation, HIV knowledge and knowledge of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) other than HIV.results Many adolescents lack knowledge of menstruation (37.3%, 95% CI 31.8, 43.1 do not know of menstruation) and STIs other than HIV (55.9%, 95% CI 50.4, 61.3 do not know of other STIs). In multivariate analysis, older age, being in school and wealth are significant positive correlates of STI knowledge. Older adolescent age, female sex and being in school are significant positive correlates of knowledge of menstruation. Knowledge of HIV is high (89.7%, 95% CI 8.3, 12.7 know of HIV) and relatively similar across adolescent age, sex, wealth and school and work attendance.conclusion Knowledge of HIV is widespread across adolescents in these communities in sub-Saharan Africa, but knowledge of other dimensions of sexual and reproductive healthmenstruation and other STIs in this studyis lacking especially for early adolescents (10-to 14-year olds). The dissemination of more comprehensive sexual and reproductive health information is needed within these and similar communities in SSA to help adolescents gain insight on how to make their own decisions towards positive adolescent sexual and reproductive health and protect them from risks. keywords adolescent, sexual and reproductive health, sub-Saharan Africa, knowledge Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): SDG 1 (no poverty), SDG 3 (good health and well-being), SDG 4 (quality education), SDG 5 (gender equity), SDG 10 (reduced inequalities), SDG 17 (partnerships for the goals) 44

Background There is limited understanding of SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis in African populations with a high burden of infectious disease comorbidities such as HIV. The kinetics, magnitude and duration of virus-specific antibodies and the underlying B cell responses in people living with HIV (PLWH) in sub-Saharan Africa have not been fully characterized. Methods We longitudinally followed SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa and characterized SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain-specific IgM, IgG and IgA antibodies weekly for a month, and then at 3 months post diagnosis. 7/30 (41.7%) were PLWH, 83% (25/30) of which were on ART and with full HIV suppression. Potency of convalescent plasma neutralization was determined using a live virus neutralization assay and antibody secreting cell population frequencies were determined by flow cytometry. Results Similar seroconversion rates, time to peak antibody titer, peak magnitude and durability of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM, IgG, IgA, were observed in HIV uninfected and PLWH with complete HIV suppression on ART. In addition, similar neutralization potency against an isolate of SARS-CoV-2, circulating at the time of sampling in the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in South Africa was observed in both groups. Loss of IgA was significantly associated with age (p=0.023) and a previous diagnosis of TB (p=0.018). Conclusions Similar antibody response kinetics and neutralization potency in HIV negative and PLWH on stable ART in an African setting suggests that COVID-19 natural infections may confer comparable antibody immunity in these groups. This provides hope that COVID-19 vaccines will be effective in PLWH on stable ART.

Background Despite effective biomedical tools, HIV remains the largest cause of morbidity/mortality in South Africa – especially among adolescents and young people. We used community-based participatory research (CBPR), informed by principles of social justice, to develop a peer-led biosocial intervention for HIV prevention in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). Methods Between March 2018 and September 2019 we used CBPR to iteratively co-create and contextually adapt a biosocial peer-led intervention to support HIV prevention. Men and women aged 18–30 years were selected by community leaders of 21 intervention implementation areas (izigodi) and underwent 20 weeks of training as peer-navigators. We synthesised quantitative and qualitative data collected during a 2016–2018 study into 17 vignettes illustrating the local drivers of HIV. During three participatory intervention development workshops and community mapping sessions, the peer-navigators critically engaged with vignettes, brainstormed solutions and mapped the components to their own izigodi. The intervention components were plotted to a Theory of Change which, following a six-month pilot and process evaluation, the peer-navigators refined. The intervention will be evaluated in a randomised controlled trial (NCT04532307). Results Following written and oral assessments, 57 of the 108 initially selected participated in two workshops to discuss the vignettes and co-create the Thetha Nami (`talk to me’). The intervention included peer-led health promotion to improve self-efficacy and demand for HIV prevention, referrals to social and educational resources, and aaccessible youth-friendly clinical services to improve uptake of HIV prevention. During the pilot the peer-navigators approached 6871 young people, of whom 6141 (89%) accepted health promotion and 438 were linked to care. During semi-structured interviews peer-navigators described the appeal of providing sexual health information to peers of a similar age and background but wanted to provide more than just “onward referral”. In the third participatory workshop 54 peer-navigators refined the Thetha Nami intervention to add three components: structured assessment tool to tailor health promotion and referrals, safe spaces and community advocacy to create an enabling environment, and peer-mentorship and navigation of resources to improve retention in HIV prevention. Conclusion Local youth were able to use evidence to develop a contextually adapted peer-led intervention to deliver biosocial HIV prevention.

Background: Social distancing measures to address the U.S. COVID-19 epidemic may have significant health, social, and economic impacts.