The presence of a large number of infected individuals with few or no symptoms is an important epidemiological difficulty and the main mathematical feature of COVID-19. The A-SIR model, i.e. a SIR (Susceptible–Infected–Removed) model with a compartment for infected individuals with no symptoms or few symptoms was proposed by Gaeta (2020). In this paper we investigate a slightly generalized version of the same model and propose a scheme for fitting the parameters of the model to real data using the time series only of the deceased individuals. The scheme is applied to the concrete cases of Lombardy, Italy and São Paulo state, Brazil, showing different aspects of the epidemic. In both cases we see strong evidence that the adoption of social distancing measures contributed to a slower increase in the number of deceased individuals when compared to the baseline of no reduction in the infection rate. Both for Lombardy and São Paulo we show that we may have good fits to the data up to the present, but with very large differences in the future behavior. The reasons behind such disparate outcomes are the uncertainty on the value of a key parameter, the probability that an infected individual is fully symptomatic, and on the intensity of the social distancing measures adopted. This conclusion enforces the necessity of trying to determine the real number of infected individuals in a population, symptomatic or asymptomatic.

Consenso colombiano de expertos sobre recomendaciones informadas en la evidencia para la prevención, el diagnóstico y el manejo de la lesión renal aguda por SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19Colombian consensus of experts on recommendations informed in the evidence for the prevention, diagnosis and management of acute kidney injury by SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19

Understanding effects driven by rotation in the solar convection zone is essential for many problems related to solar activity, such as the formation of differential rotation, meridional circulation, and others. We analyse realistic 3D radiative hydrodynamics simulations of solar subsurface dynamics in the presence of rotation in a local domain 80 Mm wide and 25 Mm deep, located at 30 degrees latitude. The simulation results reveal the development of a shallow 10-Mm deep substructure of the Near-Surface Shear Layer (NSSL), characterized by a strong radial rotational gradient and self-organized meridional flows. This shallow layer (‘leptocline’) is located in the hydrogen ionization zone associated with enhanced anisotropic overshooting-type flows into a less unstable layer between the H and HeII ionization zones. We discuss current observational evidence of the presence of the leptocline and show that the radial variations of the differential rotation and meridional flow profiles obtained from the simulations in this layer qualitatively agree with helioseismic observations.

Introduction: In April 2009, a novel influenza A (H1N1) virus was identified in patients from Mexico and the United States.  From 8 May through 25 June 2009, in the Republic of Panama, 467 cases infected with the same virus were identified, 13 of which were hospitalized at the Santo Tomas Hospital in Panama City. Up to the date of this report, no deaths have been reported in Panama. This study presents the first thirteen cases of Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 that were hospitalized in Panama City. Methodology: The Santo Tomas Hospital (HST), a third-level institution of the Ministry of Health (MINSA) for adult health care (patients above the age of 14), was designated as the reference center for treating these cases. For this purpose, the norms and criteria established by the system were followed and every patient (case) presenting flu-like symptoms was included (fever equal or greater than 38ºC (100.4ºF), cough, sore throat, rhinorrhea, lethargy in children under the age of one, and respiratory distress). Results: Seventy-six patients were hospitalized as suspected cases for infection with the influenza A H1N1 2009 virus, of which 13 (17.1%) were confirmed as positive. The clinical picture was characterized by fever (100%), cough (92.3%), rhinorrhea (69.2%), malaise (53.8%), headache (53.8%), and only one case presented gastrointestinal symptoms (diarrhoea).  The male:female ratio was 1:2.2. Conclusion:  The knowledge and technology translation previously acquired through courses to the HST health care providers were the key in controlling the first influenza A (H1N1) 2009 cases.