Understanding the causes and consequences of recombination landscape evolution is a fundamental goal in genetics that requires recombination maps from across the tree of life. Such maps can be obtained from population genomic datasets, but require large sample sizes. Alternative methods are therefore necessary to research organisms where such datasets cannot be generated easily, such as non-model or ancient species. Here we extend the sequentially Markovian coalescent model to jointly infer demography and the spatial variation in recombination rate. Using extensive simulations and sequence data from humans, fruit-flies and a fungal pathogen, we demonstrate that iSMC accurately infers recombination maps under a wide range of scenarios–remarkably, even from a single pair of unphased genomes. We exploit this possibility and reconstruct the recombination maps of ancient hominins. We report that the ancient and modern maps are correlated in a manner that reflects the established phylogeny of Neanderthals, Denisovans, and modern human populations.

Gene expression is a noisy process: in constant environment and genotype, cell to cell variability occurs because of randomness of biochemical reactions...

What shapes the distribution of nucleotide diversity along the genome? Attempts to answer this question have sparked debate about the roles of neutral stochastic processes and natural selection in molecular evolution. However, the mechanisms of evolution do not act in isolation, and integrative models that simultaneously consider the influence of multiple factors on diversity are lacking; without them, confounding factors lurk in the estimates. Here we present a new statistical method that jointly infers the genomic landscapes of genealogies, recombination rates and mutation rates. In doing so, our model captures the effects of genetic drift, linked selection and local mutation rates on patterns of genomic variation. Guided by our causal model, we use linear regression to estimate the individual contributions of these micro-evolutionary forces to levels of nucleotide diversity. Our analyses reveal the signature of selection in Drosophila melanogaster, but we estimate that the mutation landscape is the major driver of the distribution of diversity in this species. Furthermore, our simulation study suggests that in many evolutionary scenarios the mutation landscape will be a crucial force shaping diversity, depending notably on the genomic window size used in the analysis. We argue that incorporating mutation rate variation into the null model of molecular evolution will lead to more realistic inference in population genomics.

What shapes the distribution of nucleotide diversity along the genome? Attempts to answer this question have sparked debate about the roles of neutral stochastic processes and natural selection in molecular evolution. However, the mechanisms of evolution do not act in isolation, and integrative models that simultaneously consider the influence of multiple factors on diversity are lacking; without them, confounding factors lurk in the estimates. Here we present a new statistical method that jointly infers the genomic landscapes of genealogies, recombination rates and mutation rates. In doing so, our model captures the effects of genetic drift, linked selection and local mutation rates on patterns of genomic variation. We then formalize a causal model of how these microevolutionary mechanisms interact, and cast it as a linear regression to estimate their individual contributions to levels of diversity along the genome. Our analyses reclaim the well-established signature of linked selection in Drosophila melanogaster, but we estimate that the mutation landscape is the major driver of the genome-wide distribution of diversity in this species. Furthermore, our simulation results suggest that in many evolutionary scenarios the mutation landscape will be a crucial factor shaping diversity, depending notably on the genomic window size. We argue that incorporating mutation rate variation into the null model of molecular evolution will lead to more realistic inferences in population genomics.