In financial markets with high uncertainties, the trade-off between maximizing expected return and minimizing the risk is one of the main challenges in modeling and decision making. Since investors mostly shape their invested amounts towards certain assets and their risk aversion level according to their returns, scientists and practitioners have done studies on that subject since the beginning of the stock markets' establishment. In this study, we model a Robust Optimization problem based on data. We found a robust optimal solution to our portfolio optimization problem. This approach includes the use of Robust Conditional Value-at-Risk under Parallelepiped Uncertainty, an evaluation and a numerical finding of the robust optimal portfolio allocation. Then, we trace back our robust linear programming model to the Standard Form of a Linear Programming model; consequently, we solve it by a well-chosen algorithm and software package. Uncertainty in parameters, based on uncertainty in the prices, and a risk-return analysis are crucial parts of this study. A numerical experiment and a comparison (back testing) application are presented, containing real-world data from stock markets as well as a simulation study. Our approach increases the stability of portfolio allocation and reduces the portfolio risk.
Procurement risk management (PRM) requires a good understanding and assessment of all potential risks. As the procurement industry mostly functions globally and the supply-demand chain forms a dependency structure among all interested parties, the quanti…cation of risks related to the suppliers gain importance. This study presents a systematic PRM to evaluate and quantify the risks of a commodity associated to its suppliers. The probabilistic set up using total probability theorem on the information collected using risk management tools, such as expert opinion, charts, survey and historical realizations are imposed to quantify the risks. The resulting probabilities are utilized to construct a risk matrix which illustrates the performance of each supplier at every potential risk source. An application to a copper procurement as case study is done based on the risk management process evaluation. The quanti…cation of the supplier's risk with respect to a risk ranking illustration in copper procurement is exposed to indicate the e¤ectiveness of the methodology and the necessity of such evaluation in decision making.
The authors focus on a model for system operators that uses centralized scheduling of multiple flexibility assets and services to minimize the cost of managing problems with grid congestion, voltages, and losses. The model schedules flexibility assets using stochastic optimization for AC optimal power flow in an active distribution network. The novelty of the contribution lies in its focus on how the dynamic capabilities of the flexibility resources are defined with regard to how uncertainty is resolved in the model. The impact of uncertainty is studied by using well-known quality measures from stochastic programming, such as the value of the stochastic solution. Moreover, the authors introduce a new measure related to the impact of representing uncertainty and flexibility when considering reactive power. By changing the time attributes of flexibility assets, the authors show the impact of uncertainty and time structure on a scheduling problem. The uncertainties considered are price and load levels. The findings reveal that the quality of the scheduling of each flexibility resource depends on using a stochastic model with a rigorous consideration of time and uncertainty.INDEX TERMS Flexibility, active distribution networks, optimal power flow, scheduling, stochastic programming, uncertainty. NOMENCLATURE
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.