The study looks for a correlation between the share of wind power and electricity wholesale prices in the selected regions of the Nordic Baltic power market “Nord Pool Spot”. The aim is to see if and how strong an impact of wind power production has on power market prices. This information would help to perform long-term energy system analysis considering growing wind energy penetration. The actual hourly wind production and power consumption data as well as electricity prices from the year 2019 were used in the analysis. Results of the study revealed that in the analysed dataset there is no correlation between the share of wind power and the power prices, i.e. R-squared value is 0.003 for the Baltic region and 0.0064 for both trading areas of Denmark. In contrast, the R-squared value was almost 0.6 for a positive correlation between power demand and prices. The results mean that expected loss of interest to invest due to falling power prices, as a share of renewable power increases, should be examined more carefully and may not fulfil forecasts of policy makers and industry experts.
Valorization of CO2 captured from industrial processes is an important task for reaching climate and energy targets. The presented study addresses the use of CO2 for the production of ethanol, which can be used as a transport fuel. Hydrogen, produced by renewable energy technologies, is combined with CO2 to produce the synthetic fuel, thus making this approach attractive from a climate perspective. Aim of the study was to simulate the dynamics of the development of CO2-to-fuel solution, taking Latvia as the case. System dynamics modelling was used as the method for analysis. The model reflects several important feedbacks, such as relation between the captured CO2 emissions and the share of avoided CO2 emissions in transport due to fuel substitution, as well as investment in new production capacity of the ethanol. Use of avoided CO2 emission costs for funding of research and development (R&D) of the technology and direct subsidies for ethanol production is the analysed institutional aspect. The results show that if 15 % of the industrial CO2 emissions are used for ethanol production then circa 12 % of the transport CO2 emissions can be avoided. The share of avoided transport CO2 emissions are the most sensitive to unit costs of hydrogen production.
The electricity used for charging electric vehicles (EV) must be produced from renewable energy sources to make EV carbon neutral. Solar PV panels installed at fuel stations can provide a noticeable fraction of charging electricity for EV also in countries located in the Northern region. The study aims to assess the potential dynamics of that fraction given a certain growth rate of the number of EV. System dynamics modelling is used as the method and Latvia is chosen as the case. The model contains parts for the calculation of the number of EV, dynamics of charging units and PV panels at fuel stations as well as in other places, the share of PV-produced power, and the resulting reduction of CO2 emissions. Economic factors, i.e. subsidies for EV purchase, investments, and costs of charging are considered in the model. Assessment is based on sensitivity analysis. Results show that the subsidies for the purchase of EV and the price of new EV play a decisive role in the growth rate of EV and the resulting reduction of CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles.
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