The tax revenues, which constitute the most important income item of the state, provide the necessary financing for sustainable economic growth in evolved countries, development efforts in developing economies, and form the basis of social welfare. Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and tax revenues is significant and numerous empirical studies have been carried out on this subject. However, there is no study testing the hidden cointegration. This paper aims to test the presence of hidden cointegration between economic growth and tax revenues and intends to develop further typologies. To test the relationship, data on the ratio of annual tax revenues/ GDP between 1985-2018 in Turkey was used, and Hidden Cointegration Approach developed by Granger and Yoon (2002) and crouching error correction model were applied. The analysis results demonstrated that the tax revenues decreased across variables and that there was a cointegration relationship in periods when the GDP increased. This manuscript is a contribution to the literature since a different technique was performed to examine the relationship between growth and tax revenues, and the results obtained will be crucial for decision-makers.
Purpose-This work inquires whether there's a correlation between Covid-19 and the net foreign exchange reserve, which shows sensitivity to crises. Methodology-For this purpose, the daily data on COVID-19 seen in Turkey (case taken from Republic of Turkey Ministry of Health, cumulative case and infection rate data from Public Health Experts Association (HASUDER) and daily net foreign exchange reserve data calculated with the data obtained from the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) balance sheet for the period between 11 March-14 May 2020 were tested applying the ARDL Bounds Test Approach and analyzed within the framework of the Error Correction Model (VECM). And to query short-run relationship, Granger Test over the VECM Model has been applied. Findings-According to the analysis result; There is a cointegration in the long-run between COVID-19 and the net foreign exchange reserve, and is statistically significant. Also, net foreign exchange reserve is a Granger cause for the quantity of cases, the cumulative quantity of cases, and the rate of infection in the short-run. Conclusion-In the process of transformation of a health crisis caused by a pandemic into a global economic crisis, this study contributes to the formation of the literature and is noteworthy with its results. Especially in the short-run, net foreign exchange reserves were determined to be a Granger cause of COVID-19, and therefore it was determined empirically that the change in reserves escalated the pandemic. The study is a contribution to the literature.
In this study, Turkey’s current account deficit problem between the years 1980-2016 is tested whether it is sustainable or not. For this purpose, the ADF and the PP Unit Root test were applied firstly to the annual current account deficit (CAD)/GDP data from the IMF. Then, Lee Strazicich (2003, 2004) Unit Root Tests with two structural breaks was applied. Allowing Lee Strazicich with two structural breaks differs from the Zivot-Andrews (ZA)(1992) and Lumsdaine-Papell (LP) (1997) unit root tests in establishing the basic hypothesis. The ZA and LP unit root tests are based on the basic hypothesis of unit root existence without structural fracture. Based on the Lagrange multiplier proposed by Schmidt and Phillips (1992), LM unit root test with two structural breaks developed by Lee-Strazicich adopted the structural fractured unit root basic hypothesis.According to the ADF and PP test results, the CAD/GDP series is stationary at the level for both models. According to the LM test results, the unit root null hypothesis could be rejected. It is a stationary process in Turkey. This result is consistent with the ADF and PP test results. Empirical findings obtained from LM unit root test with two structural breaks show that current account deficits in Turkey are sustainable. The fact that the current account deficit is sustainable means the sustainability of external debts. The sustainability of deficit is one of the most emphasized issues especially from the perspective of countries which are dependent on foreign capital to finance their development and also crucial for the global system.
Purpose of this study is to test the association between savings and current account deficit of the “New Fragile Five” falling into critical cycle. 1994-2019 period annual national savings, current account balance and external debt have been analyzed within the framework of panel data analysis. At the modeling stage of the research focused on the cointegration relationship. Panel cointegration tests with structural breaks based on LM were used. To examine the unique economic structures of countries, heterogeneous estimating techniques were employed. The research has four important findings; i.There is a cointegration relationship between indicators, ii.The external debt increases the current account deficit, iii.The increase of savings in Turkey decreases the current account deficit, iv.An increase in savings increases the current account deficit in Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan and Qatar. This study, which will contribute to the expansion of typology, is also contributory to the “Triple Deficit Hypothesis”.
Purpose- COVID-19 has been a devastating process. During this period, there was a significant increase in the money supply. So, in this process, is there a relationship between COVID-19 and the money supply? This study intends to investigate if COVID-19 and the money supply have both a short- and long-term relationship. Methodology- Logarithmic conversions were used to examine the number of COVID-19 new cases obtained from the Association of Public Health Professionals (HASUDER) and the Turkey Republic Ministry of Health, as well as M2 weekly money supply data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Electronic Data Distribution System (EVDS). For stationarity tests, the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Phillips Perron (PP), and Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin (KPSS) unit root tests were used. Due to the different degrees of stationarity of the series, cointegration was not possible, so the long-term relationship was evaluated using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Short-term analyzes included the VAR Model and the Granger Causality Test. Findings- COVID-19 and the money supply, according to the findings, are not cointegrated in the long term. It has been discovered that the series do not move together over the long run. But in the short term, COVID-19 is a Granger cause of the money supply. Conclusion- The increase in COVID-19 cases positively affects the money supply. An increase in the money supply also leads to inflation. Therefore, in order to cope with the inflationary process triggered by the pandemic, measures to prevent the increase in COVID-19 cases are important. These findings will be "confirming" in the design of policies in this process. This study is also a contribution to the literature due to the lack of studies investigating the response of the money supply to COVID-19. Keywords: Covid-19, money supply, ARDL bounds testing approach, VAR model, Granger Causality. JEL Codes: E51, E52, I15, I18, C22
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