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This paper examines the interactions among CDS spreads across 13 European countries using spatial econometrics techniques. Our model allows for the estimation of direct and indirect transmission of sovereign risk and feedback effects across the network of these countries. The novelty of this paper is to link macroeconomic variables and CDS spreads in a new context of analysis to uncover new channels affecting sovereign risk across countries during the European debt crisis. We show that the key channel in driving sovereign risk spillovers is trade linkages between the countries. Our results also reveal that a country's CDS spread is approximately 7 basis points (bps) higher for a 1% increase in public debt-to-GDP levels while that increase in indebtedness is associated with roughly 2 bps higher spreads in all other countries.

This study analyzes oil price exposure of the oil–gas sector stock returns for the fragile five countries based on a multi-factor asset pricing model using daily data from 29 May 1996 to 27 January 2020. The endogenous structural break test suggests the presence of serious parameter instabilities due to fluctuations in the oil and stock markets over the period under study. Moreover, the time-varying estimates indicate that the oil–gas sectors of these countries are riskier than the overall stock market. The results further suggest that, except for Indonesia, oil prices have a positive impact on the sectoral returns of all markets, whereas the impact of the exchange rates on the oil–gas sector returns varies across time and countries.

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