Production of oil from shale and tight reservoirs accounted for almost 50% of 2016 total U.S. production and is projected to continue growing. The objective of our analysis was to quantify the water outlook for future shale oil development using the Eagle Ford Shale as a case study. We developed a water outlook model that projects water use for hydraulic fracturing (HF) and flowback and produced water (FP) volumes based on expected energy prices; historical oil, natural gas, and water-production decline data per well; projected well spacing; and well economics. The number of wells projected to be drilled in the Eagle Ford through 2045 is almost linearly related to oil price, ranging from 20 000 wells at $30/barrel (bbl) oil to 97 000 wells at $100/bbl oil. Projected FP water volumes range from 20% to 40% of HF across the play. Our base reference oil price of $50/bbl would result in 40 000 additional wells and related HF of 265 × 10 gal and FP of 85 × 10 gal. The presented water outlooks for HF and FP water volumes can be used to assess future water sourcing and wastewater disposal or reuse, and to inform policy discussions.
A comprehensive regional investigation of the Eagle Ford Shale linking productivity to porosity-thickness (PHIH), lithology ([Formula: see text]), pore volume (PHIT), organic matter (TOC), and water-saturation ([Formula: see text]) variations has not been presented to date. Therefore, isopach maps across the Eagle Ford Shale play west of the San Marcos Arch were constructed using thickness and log-calculated attributes such as TOC, [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], and porosity to identify sweet spots and spatial distribution of these geologic characteristics that influence productivity in shale plays. The Upper Cretaceous Eagle Ford Shale in South Texas is an organic-rich, calcareous mudrock deposited during a second-order transgression of global sea level on a carbonate-dominated shelf updip from the older Sligo and Edwards (Stuart City) reef margins. Lithology and organic-matter deposition were controlled by fluvial input from the Woodbine delta in the northeast, upwelling along the Cretaceous shelf edge, and volcanic and clastic input from distant Laramide events to the north and west. Local oxygen minimum events along the South Texas margin contributed to the preservation of this organic-rich source rock related to the Cenomanian/Turonian global organic anoxic event (OAE2). Paleogeographic and deep-seated tectonic elements controlled the variations of lithology, amount and distribution of organic matter, and facies that have a profound impact on production quality. Petrophysical modeling was conducted to calculate total organic carbon, water saturation, lithology, and porosity of the Eagle Ford Group. Thickness maps, as well as PHIH maps, show multiple sweet spots across the study area. Components of the database were used as variables in kriging, and multivariate statistical analyses evaluated the impact of these variables on productivity. For example, TOC and clay volume ([Formula: see text]) show an inverse relationship that is related to production. Mapping petrophysical parameters across a play serves as a tool to predict geologic drivers of productivity across the Eagle Ford taking the geologic heterogeneity into account.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.