Recent rises in incident tuberculosis (TB) cases in Paraguay and the increasing concentration of TB within prisons highlight the urgency of targeting strategies to interrupt transmission and prevent new infections. However, whether specific cities or carceral institutions play a disproportionate role in transmission remains unknown. We conducted prospective genomic surveillance, sequencing 471 Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex genomes, from inside and outside prisons in Paraguay’s two largest urban areas, Asunción and Ciudad del Este, from 2016 to 2021. We found genomic evidence of frequent recent transmission within prisons and transmission linkages spanning prisons and surrounding populations. We identified a signal of frequent M. tuberculosis spread between urban areas and marked recent population size expansion of the three largest genomic transmission clusters. Together, our findings highlight the urgency of strengthening TB control programs to reduce transmission risk within prisons in Paraguay, where incidence was 70 times that outside prisons in 2021.
Genomic studies of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) might shed light on the dynamics of its transmission, especially in high-burden settings, where recent outbreaks are embedded in the complex natural history of the disease. To this end, we conducted a 1 year prospective surveillance-based study in Mozambique. We applied whole-genome sequencing (WGS) to 295 positive cultures. We fully characterized MTBC isolates by phylogenetics and dating evaluation, and carried out a molecular epidemiology analysis to investigate further associations with pre-defined transmission risk factors. The majority of strains (49.5%, 136/275) belonged to lineage (L) 4; 57.8 % of them (159/275) were in genomic transmission clusters (cut-off 5 SNPs), and a strikingly high proportion (45.5%) shared an identical genotype (0 SNP pairwise distance). We found two ‘likely endemic’ clades, comprising 67 strains, belonging to L1.2, which dated back to the late 19th century and were associated with recent spread among people living with human immunodeficiency virus (PLHIV). We describe for the first time the population structure of MTBC in our region, a high tuberculosis (TB)/HIV burden area. Clustering analysis revealed an unforeseen pattern of spread and high rates of progression to active TB, suggesting weaknesses in TB control activities. The long-term presence of local strains in Mozambique, which were responsible for large transmission among HIV/TB-coinfected patients, calls into question the role of HIV in TB transmission.
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