Recent developments in uncertainty quantification show that a full inversion of model parameters is not always necessary to forecast the range of uncertainty of a specific prediction in Earth Sciences. Instead, Bayesian evidential learning (BEL) uses a set of prior models to derive a direct relationship between data and prediction. This recent technique has been mostly demonstrated for synthetic cases. This paper demonstrates the ability of BEL to predict the posterior distribution of temperature in an alluvial aquifer during a cyclic heat tracer push-pull test. The data set corresponds to another push-pull experiment with different characteristics (amplitude, duration, number of cycles). This experiment constitutes the first demonstration of BEL on real data in a hydrogeological context. It should open the range of future applications of the framework for both scientists and practitioners.

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Seasonal variations of tile drainage discharge were simulated in the 6 km2 Fensholt catchment, Denmark, with the coupled surface and subsurface HydroGeoSphere model. The catchment subsurface is represented in the model by 3 m of topsoil and clay, underlain by a heterogeneous distribution of sand and clay units. Two subsurface drainage networks were represented as nodal sinks. The spatial distribution of the heterogeneous units was generated stochastically and their hydraulic properties were calibrated to reproduce drainage discharge for one network and verified with drainage discharge for the other network. Simulated discharge was compared to that of another model for which the heterogeneous sand and clay units were replaced by a homogeneous unit, whose hydraulic conductivity was the mean value of the heterogeneous model. With the homogeneous model, drainage dynamics were correctly simulated but drainage discharge was less accurate compared to the heterogeneous model. Simulated discharge was also compared to that of a larger‐scale model created with the MIKE SHE code, built with the same heterogeneous model. HydroGeoSphere and MIKE SHE generated drainage discharge that was significantly different, with better simulated groundwater dynamics data produced by HydroGeoSphere. Nodal sinks in HydroGeoSphere reproduced drain flow peaks more accurately. Calibration against drainage discharge data suggests that drain flow is controlled primarily by geological heterogeneities included in the model and, to a lesser extent, by the nature of the soil units located between the drains and ground surface.

Shallow alluvial aquifers are suitable to perform short-term thermal energy storage.  It has a high development potential for demand-side management applications.  Energy recovery rates are high for typical demand-side management frequencies.  Preheating shallow alluvial aquifers for demand-side management is feasible.

In the context of energy transition, new and renovated buildings often include heating and/or air conditioning energy-saving technologies based on sustainable energy sources, such as groundwater heat pumps with aquifer thermal energy storage. A new aquifer thermal energy storage system was designed and is under construction in the city of Liège, Belgium, along the Meuse River. This system will be the very first to operate in Wallonia (southern Belgium) and should serve as a reference for future shallow geothermal developments in the region. The targeted alluvial aquifer reservoir was thoroughly characterized using geophysics, pumping tests, and dye and heat tracer tests. A 3D groundwater flow heterogeneous numerical model coupled to heat transport was then developed, automatically calibrated with the state-of-the-art pilot points method, and used for simulating and assessing the future system efficiency. A transient simulation was run over a 25 year-period. The potential thermal impact on the aquifer, based on thermal needs from the future building, was simulated at its full capacity in continuous mode and quantified. While the results show some thermal feedback within the wells of the aquifer thermal energy storage system and heat loss to the aquifer, the thermal affected zone in the aquifer extends up to 980 m downstream of the building and the system efficiency seems suitable for long-term thermal energy production.

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