The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future.

The vascular system of grapevine (Vitis spp.) has been reported as being highly vulnerable, even though grapevine regularly experiences seasonal drought. Consequently, stomata would remain open below water potentials that would generate a high loss of stem hydraulic conductivity via xylem embolism. This situation would necessitate daily cycles of embolism repair to restore hydraulic function. However, a more parsimonious explanation is that some hydraulic techniques are prone to artifacts in species with long vessels, leading to the overestimation of vulnerability. The aim of this study was to provide an unbiased assessment of (1) the vulnerability to drought-induced embolism in perennial and annual organs and (2) the ability to refill embolized vessels in two Vitis species X-ray micro-computed tomography observations of intact plants indicated that both Vitis vinifera and Vitis riparia were relatively vulnerable, with the pressure inducing 50% loss of stem hydraulic conductivity = 21.7 and 21.3 MPa, respectively. In V. vinifera, both the stem and petiole had similar sigmoidal vulnerability curves but differed in pressure inducing 50% loss of hydraulic conductivity (21.7 and 21 MPa for stem and petiole, respectively). Refilling was not observed as long as bulk xylem pressure remained negative (e.g. at the apical part of the plants; 20.11 6 0.02 MPa) and change in percentage loss of conductivity was 0.02% 6 0.01%. However, positive xylem pressure was observed at the basal part of the plant (0.04 6 0.01 MPa), leading to a recovery of conductance (change in percentage loss of conductivity = 20.24% 6 0.12%). Our findings provide evidence that grapevine is unable to repair embolized xylem vessels under negative pressure, but its hydraulic vulnerability segmentation provides significant protection of the perennial stem.