The progression of an unruptured intracranial aneurysm (UIA) is associated with a higher rupture risk. The aim of this study was to identify the risk factors for the progression of UIAs among Chinese adults and compare them with the ELAPSS (Earlier subarachnoid hemorrhage, IA Location, Age, Population, IA Size and Shape) score.Methods: Four hundred thirty-eight consecutive patients with 491 UIAs were followed and reviewed retrospectively from August 2011 to November 2019. Follow-up images of the UIAs were used to determine changes in IA size and shape. Patients and IAs were divided into non-progression and progression groups.In addition to the clinical characteristics of the patients, the features of the IAs (e.g., size and shape) were evaluated by computed tomography angiography (CTA) or magnetic resonance angiography (MRA). Independent risk factors for UIA progression were studied using multiple Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. In addition, the diagnostic value of the ELAPSS score for the prediction of UIA progression was calculated.Results: Seventy-two IAs in 68 patients progressed during a mean follow-up time of 24.2±19.68 months.IAs located at the bifurcation [odds ratio (OR) 2.600], with an irregular shape (OR 2.981) or having a high aspect ratio (AR, OR 2.430) were correlated with progression. Based on these three factors, the threshold value of our predictive score was 0.5, and the area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were 0.756, 93.1% and 40.6%, respectively, while the AUC, sensitivity and specificity of the ELAPSS score were 0.711, 55.6%, and 75.2%, respectively. Conclusions: IAs located at the bifurcation, with an irregular shape and with an elevated AR are risk factors for UIA progression in the Chinese population. Our predictive score is of great value in predicting the risk of UIA progression.

Background & objectives:The treatment of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (IAs) remains controversial; the ability to predict the risk of rupture for an aneurysm would be of clinical value. The aim of this study was to determine and evaluate the predictive value of the risk factors of IA rupture.Methods:This retrospective study involved 379 consecutive patients with 441 aneurysms between August 2011 and July 2014. Based on clinical data and computed tomography angiography findings, the potential of risk factors to predict the aneurysmal rupture was assessed using statistical methods.Results:Age, hypertension, heart disease, diabetes mellitus, cerebral atherosclerosis, aneurysms located at the internal carotid artery (ICA) and neck width (N) correlated negatively with rupture risk. Aneurysms located at the anterior communicating artery, bifurcation, irregularity, with a daughter sac, aneurysm height, maximum size, aspect ratio (AR), height-to-width ratio and bottleneck factor were significantly and positively correlated with rupture risk. The multivariate logistic regression model revealed that bifurcation aneurysm, irregular aneurysm and high AR increased the rupture risk, while cerebral atherosclerosis, aneurysm located on the ICA and greater N decreased the risk. Receiver operating characteristic analysis of AR curve values differed according to circumstances.Interpretation & conclusions:Cerebral atherosclerosis, location in the ICA and larger N were the protective factors against aneurysm rupture, and IAs located at bifurcations, irregular shape and increased AR indicated a greater rupture risk.

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Background Patient-related clinical factors, laboratory factors, and some imaging factors may lead to statistical bias when investigating coronary plaque progression. In this study, we avoided patient characteristics by comparing morphological characteristics of plaque progression and nonprogression within the same patient with multiple plaques.Methods From August 2011 to December 2018, 177 consecutive patients with 424 plaques who were followed with coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) were reviewed retrospectively. Follow-up images of the plaques were used to determine whether the plaque volume or stenosis grade increased. The plaques were divided into progressive and nonprogressive groups. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify the factors associated with plaque progression. Through clinical follow-up, we analyzed whether the factors associated with plaque progression were related to major adverse cardiac events (MACEs). ResultsThere were 223 plaques that progressed during a mean follow-up period of 27.6 ± 15.9 months. The univariate logistic regression model revealed that only low attenuation plaque (LAP) volume (P = 0.02) was associated with plaque progression. After a mean post-CTA follow-up period of 36.7 ± 18.4 months, 37 patients experienced MACEs, and LAP volume was significantly related to future MACEs. ConclusionOnly a high baseline LAP volume was associated with plaque progression, and patients with progressive plaques and a high LAP volume were more likely to have future MACEs. More attention should be given to plaques with LAP volumes larger than 2.4 mm 3 .