This Guidance describes a two-phase approach for a fit-for-purpose method for the assessment of plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non-quarantine pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of RROs is provided. A two-tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry, establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment. Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on how to communicate assessment results.

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Standardized tools are needed to identify and prioritize the most harmful non-native species (NNS). A plethora of assessment protocols have been developed to evaluate the current and potential impacts of non-native species, but consistency among them has received limited attention. To estimate the consistency across impact assessment protocols, 89 specialists in biological invasions used 11 protocols to screen 57 NNS (2614 assessments). We tested if the consistency in the impact scoring across assessors, quantified as the coefficient of variation (CV), was dependent on the characteristics of the protocol, the taxonomic group and the expertise of the assessor. Mean CV across assessors was 40%, with a maximum of 223%. CV was lower for protocols with a low number of score levels, which demanded high levels of expertise, and when the assessors had greater expertise on the assessed species. The similarity among protocols with respect to the final scores was higher when the protocols considered the same impact types. We conclude that all protocols led to considerable inconsistency among assessors. In order to improve consistency, we highlight the importance of selecting assessors with high expertise, providing clear guidelines and adequate training but also deriving final decisions collaboratively by consensus.

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A major step in tackling invasive alien plants consists of identifying those species that represent a future threat to managed and unmanaged habitats. The European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization reviews and organizes data on alien plants in order to build an early warning system. A prioritization system is being developed to select species that represent emerging threats and require the most urgent pest risk analysis to implement preventive measures and to perform eradication and management measures. Attention has been drawn to the Mediterranean Basin which is particularly vulnerable because its climatic conditions potentially allow the establishment of sub‐tropical and tropical species. Surveys and rapid assessments of spread and impact have allowed identification of emerging invasive alien plants for Mediterranean countries: Alternanthera philoxeroides (Amaranthaceae), Ambrosia artemisiifolia (Asteraceae), Baccharis halimifolia (Asteraceae), Cortaderia selloana (Poaceae), Eichhornia crassipes (Pontederiaceae), Fallopia baldschuanica (Polygonaceae), Hakea sericea (Proteaceae), Humulus japonicus (Cannabaceae), Ludwigia grandiflora and L. peploides (Onagraceae), Hydrilla verticillata (Hydrocharitaceae), Microstegium vimineum (Poaceae), Myriophyllum heterophyllum (Haloragaceae), Pennisetum setaceum (Poaceae), Pistia stratiotes (Araceae), Salvinia molesta (Salviniaceae), Solanum elaeagnifolium (Solanaceae). These species represent priorities for action. Some other species are placed on the observation list, as available information does not allow them to be counted among the worst threats: Akebia quinata (Lardizabalaceae), Araujia sericifera (Apocynaceae), Delairea odorata (Asteraceae), Cabomba caroliniana (Cabombaceae), Nassella neesiana, N. tenuissima and N. trichotoma (Poaceae), Sesbania punicea (Fabaceae), and Verbesina encelioides (Asteraceae).