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European cancer mortality projections for 2017 confirm the overall downward trend in rates, with a stronger pattern in men. This is mainly due to different smoking prevalence trends in different generations of men and women. Lung cancer rates in young European women are comparable to those in men, confirming that smoking has the same impact on lung cancer in the two sexes.

We predicted continuing falls in mortality rates from major cancer sites in the EU and its major countries to 2018. Exceptions are pancreatic cancer and lung cancer in women. Improved treatment and-above age 50 years-organized screening may account for recent favourable colorectal cancer trends.

Background: To overcome the lag with which cancer statistics become available, we predicted numbers of deaths and rates from all cancers and selected cancer sites for 2019 in the European Union (EU). Materials and methods: We retrieved cancer death certifications and population data from the World Health Organization and Eurostat databases for 1970-2014. We obtained estimates for 2019 with a linear regression on number of deaths over the most recent trend period identified by a logarithmic Poisson joinpoint regression model. We calculated the number of avoided deaths over the period 1989-2019. Results: We estimated about 1 410 000 cancer deaths in the EU for 2019, corresponding to age-standardized rates of 130.9/ 100 000 men (À5.9% since 2014) and 82.9 women (À3.6%). Lung cancer trends in women are predicted to increase 4.4% between 2014 and 2019, reaching a rate of 14.8. The projected rate for breast cancer was 13.4. Favourable trends for major neoplasms are predicted to continue, except for pancreatic cancer. Trends in breast cancer mortality were favourable in all six countries considered, except Poland. The falls were largest in women 50-69 (À16.4%), i.e. the age group covered by screening, but also seen at age 20-49 (À13.8%), while more modest at age 70-79 (À6.1%). As compared to the peak rate in 1988, over 5 million cancer deaths have been avoided in the EU over the 1989-2019 period. Of these, 440 000 were breast cancer deaths. Conclusion: Between 2014 and 2019, cancer mortality will continue to fall in both sexes. Breast cancer rates will fall steadily, with about 35% decline in rates over the last three decades. This is likely due to reduced hormone replacement therapy use, improvements in screening, early diagnosis and treatment. Due to population ageing, however, the number of breast cancer deaths is not declining.

The 2016 predictions for EU cancer mortality confirm the favourable trends in rates particularly for men. Lung cancer is likely to be the leading site for female cancer rates. Continuing falls in mortality, larger in children and young adults, are predicted in leukaemias, essentially due to advancements in management and therapy, and their subsequent adoption across Europe.

The Mediterranean diet has been related to a reduced risk of several common cancers but its role on breast cancer has not been quantified yet. We investigated the association between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and breast cancer risk by means of a hospital-based case-control study conducted in Italy and Switzerland. 3034 breast cancer cases and 3392 controls admitted to the same network of hospitals for acute, non-neoplastic and non-gynaecologic diseases were studied. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was quantitatively measured through a Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), summarizing the major characteristics of the Mediterranean dietary pattern and ranging from 0 (lowest adherence) to 9 (highest adherence). We estimated the odds ratios (ORs) of breast cancer for the MDS using multiple logistic regression models, adjusting for several covariates. Compared to a MDS of 0–3, the ORs for breast cancer were 0.86 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.76–0.98) for a MDS of 4–5 and 0.82 (95% CI, 0.71–0.95) for a MDS of 6–9 (p for trend = 0.008). The exclusion of the ethanol component from the MDS did not materially modify the ORs (e.g., OR = 0.81, 95% CI, 0.70–0.95, for MDS ≥ 6). Results were similar in pre- and post-menopausal women. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was associated with a reduced breast cancer risk.