Whether community mental health treatment affects recidivism cannot be assessed fairly in the absence of higher levels of service during the first months after release. This study also identifies actuarial risk factors that predict new offenses at a level comparable to that of published risk assessment instruments. Commission of less serious offenses that usually precede felonies may provide an early warning of risk for new felonies and an opportunity for strategic intervention. The low rate of serious violence in the community by mentally ill offenders released from prison suggests that the risk of violence may be a weak and potentially counterproductive rationale for community support and mental health treatment of mentally ill offenders.

Little research has focused on assessing the risk of mentally ill offenders (MIOs) released from state prisons. Here we report findings for 333 mentally ill offenders released from Washington State prisons. Logistic regression identified sets of variables that forecasted felony and violent reconviction as accurately as state-of-the-art risk assessment instruments. Sums of simple recoded versions of these variables predicted reoffense as well as complex logistic regression equations. Five of these 9 variables were found to be relative protective factors. Findings are discussed in terms of the value of stock correctional variables in forecasting risk, the need to base actuarial risk assessments on local data, the importance of protective factors in assessing MIO risk, and the need for dynamic, situational, and clinical variables that can further sharpen predictive accuracy of emergent risk in the community.

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Seven simulated eyes with varying pupil size to eye ratios were tested for their effects on the duration of tonic immobility. A pair of eyes with a ratio of approximately 11/20 mm was the only configuration which produced reliable increases in response duration. The results were discussed as they relate to the possible role of eye contact in predator-prey encounters.Tonic immobility (TI) appears to function as the terminal response in a series of distance-dependent predator defenses (Ratner, 1967; Sargeant & Eberhardt, 1975). The response, which is produced by some form of physical restraint, occurs in a wide variety of species and is characterized by a catatonic-like state of physical immobility and muscle hypertonicity. Attempts to produce TI in the laboratory eventuate in immobility episodes that vary in duration from a few seconds to several hours.Among the most potent agents for increasing the duration of TI are stimuli which are thought to produce fear (Gallup, 1974). Prominent in this list are stimulus characteristics of potential predators. In a series of studies, it has been shown that (a) the opportunity to view a stuffed hawk or a human experimenter increases the duration of TI in chickens (Gallup, Cummings, & Nash, 1972;Gallup, Nash, Donegan, & McClure, 1971) and lizards (Edson & Gallup, 1972; Gallup, 1973), and that (b) the effects of simulated predation on TI are due almost exclUSively to the visibility of the predator's eyes. Of such singular importance are eyes in sustaining TI that merely suspending artificial glass eyes over immobilized chickens (Gallup, Nash, & Ellison, 1971) or crabs (O'Brien & Dunlap, 1975) results in a marked increase in response duration.The preceding findings, when considered together, strongly suggest that eye contact plays a powerful and fundamental role in the maintenance of tonic immobility. A logical next step would be an attempt to determine which feature(s) of such eyes is critical for sustaining the reaction. 0 'Brien and Dunlap (1975) found that artificial eyes potentiated TI in crabs, but eyes of different sizes all yielded comparable effects. One likely candidate for remaining investigation is the size of the pupil relative to the rest of the eye.Requests for reprints should be sent to G. G. Gallup, Jr., Department of Psychology, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, New York 12222. METHOD SubjectsThe subjects were 86 straight-run, Production Red chickens (Gallus gallus) obtained from a local hatchery at 1-2 days of age. All birds were housed in commercial brooders and maintained on artificial light for 14 h/day . Purina Chick Chow (Growena) and water were continuously available during rearing. ApparatusThe apparatus consisted of an upright stand, fitted with a pair of 1.27-cm wooden dowels which could be suspended over an immobilized bird. Small magnets were attached to the ends of the dowels and provided a means by which stimulus materials could be attached and replaced.The stimulus materials consisted of seven pairs of circular paper eyespo...