Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0•685 (95% CI 0•629-0•741) to 0•833 (0•783-0•882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide.
BACKGROUND The safety and efficacy of vaccines to prevent Ebola virus disease (EVD) were unknown when the incidence of EVD was peaking in Liberia. METHODS We initiated a randomized, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial of the chimpanzee adenovirus 3 vaccine (ChAd3-EBO-Z) and the recombinant vesicular stomatitis virus vaccine (rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP) in Liberia. A phase 2 subtrial was embedded to evaluate safety and immunogenicity. Because the incidence of EVD declined in Liberia, the phase 2 component was expanded and the phase 3 component was eliminated. RESULTS A total of 1500 adults underwent randomization and were followed for 12 months. The median age of the participants was 30 years; 36.6% of the participants were women. During the week after the administration of vaccine or placebo, adverse events occurred significantly more often with the active vaccines than with placebo; these events included injection-site reactions (in 28.5% of the patients in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group and 30.9% of those in the rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP group, as compared with 6.8% of those in the placebo group), headache (in 25.1% and 31.9%, vs. 16.9%), muscle pain (in 22.3% and 26.9%, vs. 13.3%), feverishness (in 23.9% and 30.5%, vs. 9.0%), and fatigue (in 14.0% and 15.4%, vs. 8.8%) (P<0.001 for all comparisons); these differences were not seen at 1 month. Serious adverse events within 12 months after injection were seen in 40 participants (8.0%) in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group, in 47 (9.4%) in the rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP group, and in 59 (11.8%) in the placebo group. By 1 month, an antibody response developed in 70.8% of the participants in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group and in 83.7% of those in the rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP group, as compared with 2.8% of those in the placebo group (P<0.001 for both comparisons). At 12 months, antibody responses in participants in the ChAd3-EBO-Z group (63.5%) and in those in the rVSVΔG-ZEBOV-GP group (79.5%) remained significantly greater than in those in the placebo group (6.8%, P<0.001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSIONS A randomized, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial of two vaccines that was rapidly initiated and completed in Liberia showed the capability of conducting rigorous research during an outbreak. By 1 month after vaccination, the vaccines had elicited immune responses that were largely maintained through 12 months. (Funded by the National Institutes of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the Liberian Ministry of Health; PREVAIL I ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02344407.)
Background: There are limited data available on the association of gouty arthritis (gout) in middle age with longterm cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. Methods: We performed a 17-year follow-up study of 9105 men, aged 41 to 63 years and at above-average risk for coronary heart disease, who were randomized to the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial and who did not die or have clinical or electrocardiographic evidence of coronary artery disease during the 6-year trial. Risk of CVD death and other causes subsequent to the sixth annual examination associated with gout was assessed by means of Cox proportional hazards regressions. Results: The unadjusted mortality rates from CVD among those with and without gout were 10.3 per 1000 personyears and 8.0 per 1000 person-years, respectively, representing an approximately 30% greater risk. After adjustment for traditional risk factors, use of diuretics and aspirin, and serum creatinine level, the hazard ratio (gout vs no gout) for coronary heart disease mortality was 1.35 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-1.72). The hazard ratio for death from myocardial infarction was 1.35 (95% CI, 0.94-1.93); for death from CVD overall, 1.21 (95% CI, 0.99-1.49); and for death from any cause, 1.09 (95% CI, 1.00-1.19) (P=.04). The association between hyperuricemia and CVD was weak and did not persist when analysis was limited to men with hyperuricemia without a diagnosis of gout. Conclusion: Among middle-aged men, a diagnosis of gout accompanied by an elevated uric acid level imparts significant independent CVD mortality risk.
The incidence of ESRD is increasing rapidly. Limited information exists regarding early markers for the development of ESRD. This study aimed to determine over 25 yr the risk for ESRD associated with proteinuria, estimated GFR (eGFR), and hematocrit in men who did not have identified kidney disease and were randomly assigned into the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Study (MRFIT). A total of 12,866 men who were at high risk for heart disease were enrolled (1973 to 1975) and followed through 1999. Renal replacement therapy was ascertained by matching identifiers with the United States Renal Data System's data; vital status was from the National Death Index. Men who initiated renal replacement therapy or died as a result of kidney disease were deemed to have developed ESRD. Dipstick urine for proteinuria, eGFR, and hematocrit were related to development of ESRD. T he incidence of ESRD has increased rapidly in the past decade, and the number of people with ESRD is projected to double by the year 2010 (1). Despite this rapid increase, limited information exists regarding early markers for the development of ESRD. Previous groups have studied either individuals with established chronic kidney disease (CKD) or unknown baseline kidney function. Most studies of individuals with established kidney disease have had short durations of follow-up and used surrogate markers for ESRD, such as change in GFR or doubling of serum creatinine in addition to ESRD as end points (2-6). Whether these markers are useful in identifying individuals who are at high risk for developing ESRD over the long term is uncertain. Other studies, including investigations of the cohort of men who were screened for the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT), have followed individuals for a long time (7-13). These studies established BP, diabetes, and black race as major risk factors for ESRD, but they did not include assessment of renal function at baseline. Recognizing the limitations of previous studies, we aimed to determine over 25 yr the risk for ESRD associated with casual dipstick proteinuria, estimated GFR (eGFR), and hematocrit in individuals who did not have identified kidney disease at baseline and were randomly assigned in the MRFIT study. Materials and MethodsMRFIT was a multicenter, randomized trial to study the effect of an intervention program that was designed to lower BP, to decrease serum cholesterol by dietary changes and to achieve smoking cessation in men who were at high risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Details concerning the screening have been published (14 -16). Briefly, between
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