Plant phenology will likely shift with climate change, but how temperature and/or moisture regimes will control phenological responses is not well understood. This is particularly true in Mediterranean climate ecosystems where the warmest temperatures and greatest moisture availability are seasonally asynchronous. We examined plant phenological responses at both the population and community levels to four climate treatments (control, warming, drought, and warming plus additional precipitation) embedded within three prairies across a 520 km latitudinal Mediterranean climate gradient within the Pacific Northwest, USA. At the population level, we monitored flowering and abundances in spring 2017 of eight range‐restricted focal species planted both within and north of their current ranges. At the community level, we used normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measured from fall 2016 to summer 2018 to estimate peak live biomass, senescence, seasonal patterns, and growing season length. We found that warming exerted a stronger control than our moisture manipulations on phenology at both the population and community levels. Warming advanced flowering regardless of whether a species was within or beyond its current range. Importantly, many of our focal species had low abundances, particularly in the south, suggesting that establishment, in addition to phenological shifts, may be a strong constraint on their future viability. At the community level, warming advanced the date of peak biomass regardless of site or year. The date of senescence advanced regardless of year for the southern and central sites but only in 2018 for the northern site. Growing season length contracted due to warming at the southern and central sites (~3 weeks) but was unaffected at the northern site. Our results emphasize that future temperature changes may exert strong influence on the timing of a variety of plant phenological events, especially those events that occur when temperature is most limiting, even in seasonally water‐limited Mediterranean ecosystems.
Plastics are used widely as agricultural mulches to suppress weeds and retain soil moisture. Disposal of conventional plastic mulches requires physical removal for disposal in a landfill or incineration. Biodegradable plastic mulches that could be tilled into the soil at the end of a growing season represent an attractive alternative to conventional plastic mulches. In this study, three commercially available mulches labeled as "biodegradable" and one experimental, potentially biodegradable mulch were used during a tomato growing season, and then buried in field soil at three locations for approximately 6 months, as would occur typically in an agricultural setting. Degradation after 6 months in soil was minimal for all but the cellulosic mulch. After removal of mulches from soil, fungi were isolated from the mulch surfaces and tested for their ability to colonize and degrade the same mulches in pure culture. The majority of culturable soil fungi that colonized biodegradable mulches were within the family Trichocomaceae (which includes beneficial, pathogenic, and mycotoxigenic species of Aspergillus and Penicillium). These isolates were phylogenetically similar to fungi previously reported to degrade both conventional and biodegradable plastics. Under pure culture conditions, only a subset of fungal isolates achieved detectable mulch degradation. No isolate substantially degraded any mulch. Additionally, DNA was extracted from bulk soil surrounding buried mulches and ribosomal DNA was used to assess the soil microbial community. Soil microbial community structure was significantly affected by geographical location, but not by mulch treatments.
Predicting species' range shifts under future climate is a central goal of conservation ecology. Studying populations within and beyond multiple species' current ranges can help identify whether demographic responses to climate change exhibit directionality, indicative of range shifts, and whether responses are uniform across a suite of species. We quantified the demographic responses of six native perennial prairie species planted within and, for two species, beyond their northern range limits to a 3‐year experimental manipulation of temperature and precipitation at three sites spanning a latitudinal climate gradient in the Pacific Northwest, USA. We estimated population growth rates (λ) using integral projection models and tested for opposing responses to climate in different demographic vital rates (demographic compensation). Where species successfully established reproductive populations, warming negatively affected λ at sites within species' current ranges. Contrarily, warming and drought positively affected λ for the two species planted beyond their northern range limits. Most species failed to establish a reproductive population at one or more sites within their current ranges, due to extremely low germination and seedling survival. We found little evidence of demographic compensation buffering populations to the climate treatments. Synthesis. These results support predictions across a suite of species that ranges will need to shift with climate change as populations within current ranges become increasingly vulnerable to decline. Species capable of dispersing beyond their leading edges may be more likely to persist, as our evidence suggests that projected changes in climate may benefit such populations. If species are unable to disperse to new habitat on their own, assisted migration may need to be considered to prevent the widespread loss of vulnerable species.
Spatial gradients in population growth, such as across latitudinal or elevational gradients, are often assumed to primarily be driven by variation in climate, and are frequently used to infer species’ responses to climate change. Here, we use a novel demographic, mixed‐model approach to dissect the contributions of climate variables vs. other latitudinal or local site effects on spatiotemporal variation in population performance in three perennial bunchgrasses. For all three species, we find that performance of local populations decreases with warmer and drier conditions, despite latitudinal trends of decreasing population growth toward the cooler and wetter northern portion of each species’ range. Thus, latitudinal gradients in performance are not predictive of either local or species‐wide responses to climate. This pattern could be common, as many environmental drivers, such as habitat quality or species’ interactions, are likely to vary with latitude or elevation, and thus influence or oppose climate responses.
AimHow climate change will alter plant functional group composition is a critical question given the well‐recognized effects of plant functional groups on ecosystem services. While climate can have direct effects on different functional groups, indirect effects mediated through changes in biotic interactions have the potential to amplify or counteract direct climatic effects. As a result, identifying the underlying causes for climate effects on plant communities is important to conservation and restoration initiatives.LocationWestern Pacific Northwest (Oregon and Washington), USA.MethodsUtilizing a 3‐year experiment in three prairie sites across a 520‐km latitudinal climate gradient, we manipulated temperature and precipitation and recorded plant cover at the peak of each growing season. We used structural equation models to examine how abiotic drivers (i.e. temperature, moisture and soil nitrogen) controlled functional group cover, and how these groups in turn determined overall plant diversity.ResultsWarming increased the cover of introduced annual species, causing subsequent declines in other functional groups and diversity. While we found direct effects of temperature and moisture on extant vegetation (i.e. native annuals, native perennials and introduced perennials), these effects were typically amplified by introduced annuals. Competition for moisture and light or space, rather than nitrogen, were critical mechanisms of community change in this seasonally water‐limited Mediterranean‐climate system. Diversity declines were driven by reductions in native annual cover and increasing dominance by introduced annuals.Main conclusionsA shift towards increasing introduced annual dominance in this system may be akin to that previously experienced in California grasslands, resulting in the “Californication” of Pacific Northwest prairies. Such a phenomenon may challenge local land managers in their efforts to maintain species‐rich and functionally diverse prairie ecosystems in the future.
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