Background The accuracy of the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) risk equation for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events in contemporary and ethnically diverse populations is not well understood. Objectives We sought to evaluate the accuracy of the 2013 ACC/AHA risk equation within a large, multiethnic population in clinical care. Methods The target population for consideration of cholesterol-lowering therapy in a large, integrated health care delivery system population was identified in 2008 and followed through 2013. The main analyses excluded those with known ASCVD, diabetes mellitus, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels <70 or ≥190 mg/dl, prior statin use, or incomplete 5-year follow-up. Patient characteristics were obtained from electronic medical records and ASCVD events were ascertained using validated algorithms for hospitalization databases and death certificates. We compared predicted versus observed 5-year ASCVD risk, overall and by sex and race/ethnicity. We additionally examined predicted versus observed risk in patients with diabetes mellitus. Results Among 307,591 eligible adults without diabetes between 40 and 75 years of age, 22,283 were black, 52,917 Asian/Pacific Islander, and 18,745 Hispanic. We observed 2,061 ASCVD events during 1,515,142 person-years. In each 5-year predicted ASCVD risk category, observed 5-year ASCVD risk was substantially lower: 0.20% for predicted risk <2.50%; 0.65% for predicted risk 2.50 to 3.74%; 0.90% for predicted risk 3.75 to 4.99%; and 1.85% for predicted risk ≥5.00%, with C: 0.74. Similar ASCVD risk overestimation and poor calibration with moderate discrimination (C: 0.68 to 0.74) was observed in sex, racial/ethnic, and socioeconomic status subgroups, and in sensitivity analyses among patients receiving statins for primary prevention. Calibration among 4,242 eligible adults with diabetes was improved, but discrimination was worse (C: 0.64). Conclusions In a large, contemporary “real-world” population, the ACC/AHA Pooled Cohort risk equation substantially overestimated actual 5-year risk in adults without diabetes, overall and across sociodemographic subgroups.

OBJECTIVES Visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure is an important independent risk factor for premature death and cardiovascular events, but relatively little is known about this phenomenon in patients with chronic kidney disease not yet on dialysis. METHODS We conducted a retrospective study in a community-based cohort of 114,900 adults with chronic kidney disease stages 3–4 (estimated glomerular filtration rate 15–59 mL/min per 1.73 m2). We hypothesized that visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure would be independently associated with higher risks of death, incident treated end-stage renal disease, and cardiovascular events. We defined systolic visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure using three metrics: (1) coefficient of variation (2) standard deviation of the mean systolic blood pressure, and (3) average real variability. RESULTS The highest versus the lowest quintile of the coefficient of variation was associated with higher adjusted rates of death (hazard ratio 1.22; 95% confidence interval 1.11–1.34) and hemorrhagic stroke (hazard ratio 1.91, confidence interval 1.36–2.68). Visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure was inconsistently associated with heart failure, and was not significantly associated with acute coronary syndrome and ischemic stroke. Results were similar when using the other two visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure. Visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure had inconsistent associations with end-stage renal disease, perhaps due to the relatively low incidences of this outcome. CONCLUSIONS Higher visit-to-visit variability of blood pressure is independently associated with higher rates of death and hemorrhagic stroke in patients with moderate to advanced chronic kidney disease not yet on dialysis.

IMPORTANCE Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is common in adults with heart failure and is associated with an increased risk of sudden cardiac death. Randomized trials of participants without CKD have demonstrated that implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) decrease the risk of arrhythmic death in selected patients with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) heart failure. However, whether ICDs improve clinical outcomes in patients with CKD is not well elucidated. OBJECTIVE To examine the association of primary prevention ICDs with risk of death and hospitalization in a community-based population of potentially ICD-eligible patients who had heart failure with reduced LVEF and CKD. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS This noninterventional cohort study included adults with heart failure and an LVEF of 40% or less and measures of serum creatinine levels available from January 1, 2005, through December 31, 2012, who were enrolled in 4 Kaiser Permanente health care delivery systems. Chronic kidney disease was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2. Patients who received and did not receive an ICD were matched (1:3) on CKD status, age, and high-dimensional propensity score to receive an ICD. Follow-up was completed on December 31, 2013. Data were analyzed from 2015 to 2017. EXPOSURES Placement of an ICD. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES All-cause death, hospitalizations due to heart failure, and any-cause hospitalizations. RESULTS A total of 5877 matched eligible adults with CKD (1556 with an ICD and 4321 without an ICD) were identified (4049 men [68.9%] and 1828 women [31.1%]; mean [SD] age, 72.9 [8.2] years). In models adjusted for demographics, comorbidity, and cardiovascular medication use, no difference was found in all-cause mortality between patients with CKD in the ICD vs non-ICD groups (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.87-1.06). However, ICD placement was associated with increased risk of subsequent hospitalization due to heart failure (adjusted relative risk, 1.49; 95% CI, 1.33-1.60) and any-cause hospitalization (adjusted relative risk, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.20-1.30) among patients with CKD. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In a large, contemporary, noninterventional study of community-based patients with heart failure and CKD, ICD placement was not significantly associated with improved survival but was associated with increased risk for subsequent hospitalization due to heart failure and all-cause hospitalization. The potential risks and benefits of ICDs should be carefully considered in patients with heart failure and CKD.

We identified selected hospital and patient characteristics associated with short-term adverse outcomes. Further understanding of these factors may optimize safe outpatient management in ED-treated patients with heart failure.

Contemporary data on complications and resource utilization after atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation are limited. We evaluated rates and risk factors for procedural complication, rehospitalization, and emergency department visits after AF ablation. We identified all adult patients who underwent isolated AF ablation between 2010 and June 2014 in 2 large integrated health-care delivery systems and evaluated rates of acute inpatient complication, 30-day, and 1-year readmission and emergency evaluation. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of procedural complications, 30-day readmission, or 30-day emergency department evaluation. In 811 AF ablation patients, procedural complications occurred in 2.5% of patients, 9.7% of patients were rehospitalized within 30 days, and 19.1% of patients had an emergency visit within 30 days. At 1 year after AF ablation, 28.9% of patients were readmitted, with 18% of patients readmitted for AF or atrial flutter. At 1 year, 44.5% of patients were seen in an emergency department, with 37.1% related to AF or atrial flutter. Vascular complications and perforation or tamponade were the most common complications, and Hispanic ethnicity, mitral or aortic valvular disease, and diabetes mellitus were the strongest risk factors for adverse outcomes at 30 days after AF ablation. Contemporary rates of acute complication and 1-year readmission after AF ablation have markedly decreased compared with previous community-based studies.