This article analyses value changes of German stock market companies in response to movements of the US dollar. The approach followed in this work extends the standard means of measuring exchange rate exposure in several ways, e.g. by using multifactor modelling instead of augmented Capital Asset Pricing Model, application of moving window panel regressions and orthogonalization of overall market risk vis-à-vis currency risk. A further innovation lies in testing the theoretical implications of exchange rate adjustment costs (hedging costs) for firm values and economic exposure. Based on time series and panel data of German Deutsche Aktien Xchange companies, Deutsche Mark/dollar rates and macroeconomic factors, we find a rather unstable, time-variant exposure of German stock market companies. Dollar sensitivity is positively affected by the ratio of exports/gross domestic product (GDP) and negatively affected by imports/GDP. Moreover, as expected from theoretical findings, firm values and exchange rate exposure are significantly reduced by adjustment costs depending on the distance of the exchange rate from the expected long-run mean. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2007.
Summary:We estimate the impact of dollar changes on the value of German DAX corporations, using APT-modelling for the period 1977 -1995. Several macroeconomic risk factors, including the dollar and a residual market factor representing the general market risk, are specified. The general notion is that the export-oriented German companies should benefit from increasing dollar values. We find time-varying dollar exposure presumably depending on the prevailing trade regime. Dollar sensitivity is positive as expected in periods with a positive trade balance, whereas it turns negative in periods with a negative trade balance (e.g., in the first half of the 1980s). APT-modelling simultaneously considers exchange rate exposure and risk-premia of macroeconomic risk factors, the latter also being unstable over time.
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